Benefits and costs of controlling three allergenic alien species under climate change and dispersal scenarios in Central Europe

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS.     

我国地方海洋立法技术分析

从立法技术这一独特视野,运用法理学、立法学的基本理论,从对地方海洋法和立法技术的正确理解和把握入手,剖析了我国现行地方海洋法规在立法技术方面存在的具体问题.提出了加强地方海洋立法理论研究、形成综合立法机制、完善地方海洋立法各项具体制度等针对性对策和建议,以有助于我国地方海洋立法科学化,加快海洋法治建设进程.     

试论社会主义市场经济体制下的安全立法

探讨了法制与安全科学的相互关系,安全立法的作用以及社会主义市场经济体制下安全方法的重要性与紧迫性;提出了关于安全立法的几点建议。     

Waste Management in the European Union: National Self-Sufficiency and Harmonization at the Expense of Economic Efficiency?

/ Since 1975, the European Union (EU) has developed an impressive body of waste management legislation, although, according to the principle of subsidiarity, responsibilities belong to the most local level at which the tasks can be carried out effectively. Using economic theory, this paper examines several factors that influence the efficient distribution of regulatory authority among the EU and the member states. We specifically analyze the role of harmonization that, in our opinion, will often lead to an overcentralization. Within this context, a second issue is becoming more important, as ongoing discussions show. If no consensus can be reached about harmonization, should member states be allowed to stop cross-border shipments of waste, or should the EU strive for a common market for waste? We take the position that most objections against waste shipments are not convincing, especially if the member states implement minimum standards for landfills and waste processing facilities and common information and control systems. Competition between different national regulations within adequate constraints that, e.g., control transboundary externalities leads to more efficient waste management structures in Europe than national self-sufficiency or centralized decision-making at the EU level. KEY WORDS: Waste management; European Union; Subsidiarity; Institutional competition; Harmonization; Cross-border shipments of waste     

A critical analysis of the South African Disaster Management Act and Policy Framework

The promulgation of the South African Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Policy Framework of 2005 placed South Africa at the international forefront by integrating disaster risk reduction into all spheres of government through a decentralised approach. Yet, good policy and legislation do not necessarily translate into good practice. This paper provides a critical analysis of the Act and Policy Framework. Using qualitative research methods, it analyses the attitudes and perceptions of senior public officials on all levels of government, the private sector and academia. The study finds that one of the weakest aspects of the Act and Framework is the absence of clear guidance to local municipalities. The placement of the disaster risk management function on all tiers of government remains problematic, funding is inadequate and overall knowledge and capacities for disaster risk reduction are insufficient.     

EU vision of sustainable agriculture,land use,forestry and management of natural resources – level of the Slovak state administration convergence to the EU requirements

The EU vision of sustainable agriculture, land use, forestry and management of natural resources contributes to the balanced exploitation of the environment, taking into account rural development strategy. Whilst the EU directs activities through legislative tools, national systems of public administration are responsible for the implementation of the respective laws. Despite there not being acquis communautaire in public administration, non-formal cooperation has nevertheless emerged and systems of national public administration have to meet EU criteria and ensure the effective implementation of legislation. The paper presents an analysis of how Slovak state administration has converged with EU requirements in the field of sustainable agriculture, land use, forestry and natural resources. Administrative convergence is considered through the internal convergence represented by capacities without legal subjectivity, and through external convergence represented by legal and administrative subjectivity. Both approaches are observed at the central level within specialized public authorities. Local state administration is characterized by the creation of internal administrative capacities with the challenging delimitation of which competences are affected by the process of administrative convergence.     

产业关联水平对碳排放演化的影响机理及效应研究——基于欧盟27国投入产出数据的实证分析

碳排放逐步升高是以工业化为特征的区域经济崛起的必然结果。论文的理论研究说明,产业关联水平反映了区域发展过程中产业多样化和分工细化的程度,相较于产业结构,产业关联水平对区域经济发展水平的指示意义更深刻。那么,产业关联水平对碳排放的影响特征及其趋势将更接近于碳排放在经济发展驱动下的演进规律。因此,论文采用欧盟27国投入产出数据,在测算不同类型制造业和服务业的产业关联水平的基础上,确定不同类型制造业所对应的特征服务业类型,进而应用经济计量学工具对制造业与服务业产业关联度对碳排放的影响进行实证分析,结果显示：第一,作为发达经济体,欧盟的制造业与服务业整体间产业关联度对碳排放具有显著负效应;第二,低端、中端和高端制造业与各自对应特征服务业类型间产业关联度对碳排放的影响均较为显著,其强度呈现随制造业水平升级而先上升、后下降的趋势;第三,高端制造业与生产性、分配性服务业间产业关联度的提高是实现区域碳排放达到峰值并逐步下降的重要动力,而中端制造业与其对应特征服务业关联度提升对碳排放的正向效应将高于低端制造业主导时期。因此,结合发达经济体的发展经验可以发现,碳排放的演化具有规律性特征,而以产业关联度入手的分析能够提供操作性更强的参考。目前,中国应在推动产业结构升级结构的过程中,大力提升生产性服务业的发展水平及其与制造业的关联水平,并采取积极措施降低交通运输业等分配性服务业的能耗强度。     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

我国城市森林文态保护和管理的探讨

森林具有经济、生态、社会和文化功能。森林文态与森林生态相对应,是指在森林的自然、生命系统的基础上形成的人文精神的综合。近年来,我国城市化率已由1993年的28%提高到2008年的45.68%,城市森林生态保护有了长足的发展,但也存在着对森林文态保护重视不够、相关管理滞后等问题。为了加强城市森林文态保护和管理,研究认为,我国社会经济发展已走向成熟推进和消费阶段,森林文态保护是未来城市森林发展的灵魂,尤其是随着我国城市化水平的提高,城市森林文态保护将越来越受到重视。研究最后建议,应把城市森林文态保护纳入森林立法和管理,加强城市森林发展规划,突出物质财富生产和精神财富生产的有机结合,促进城市森林文态保护和绿色文化的发展。     

Experimental test of the effects of a non-native invasive species on a wintering shorebird

The abundance of nearly one-quarter of the world's shorebird species is declining. At the same time, the number of non-native species in coastal ecosystems is increasing rapidly. In some cases, non-native species may affect negatively the abundance and diversity of shorebird prey species. We conducted an experimental study of the effects of the introduced European green crab (Carcinus maenas) on prey consumption by wintering Dunlin (Calidris alpina) in a central California estuary. We placed green crabs and Dunlin sequentially in field enclosures and measured changes in density of benthic invertebrate prey (e.g. polychaetes and small clams), Dunlin biomass, and gut contents of both Dunlin and crabs and observed foraging behavior of Dunlin. Green crabs significantly affected Dunlin foraging success through both direct and indirect multitrophic linkages. In enclosures with high densities of green crabs, crab foraging reduced the availability of polychaetes, and Dunlin consumed significantly fewer polychaetes compared with Dunlin in enclosures without crabs. High densities of green crabs were also associated with increased availability of small clams. Dunlin consumed significantly more small clams compared with Dunlin in enclosures without crabs. In our literature survey of studies of effects of non-native invasive species on shorebirds, we found three prior experiments that addressed the effect of non-native invasive species on shorebirds. Results of two of these studies showed positive direct effects of non-native invertebrates on shorebirds, 1 showed negative direct effects of a non-native plant on shorebirds through habitat conversion, and none showed indirect effects of non-native invertebrates. We suggest future management of shorebirds explicitly examine how non-native marine species, particularly invertebrates, directly and indirectly affect shorebirds.