静态应力降与动态应力降比值方法在东北地区震后趋势判定中的应用

计算静态应力降与动态应力降之比Y值,根据Y值的大小初步判定地震类型,是震后趋势判定的一种新方法,对震后趋势快速判定有一定意义。通过计算我省历年有影响地震的Y值,发现2005年以来黑龙江省及其周边地区中强地震静态应力降与动态应力降之比(Y值)在0.3~0.6之间,总体来说Y值较大,其地震类型以孤立型地震为主,吉林省前郭县地震Y值为0.37,与我省其他中强地震相比,Y值相对较低,初步判定为震群型地震。     

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: Pressure–State–Response and Nitrogen Source Apportionment

A eutrophication assessment method was developed as part of the National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Program. The program is designed to improve monitoring and assessment of eutrophication in the estuaries and coastal bays of the United States with the intent to guide management plans and develop analytical and research models and tools for managers. These tools will help guide and improve management success for estuaries and coastal resources. The assessment method, a Pressure-State-Response approach, uses a simple model to determine Pressure and statistical criteria for indicator variables (where applicable) to determine State. The Response determination is mostly heuristic, although research models are being developed to improve that component. The three components are determined individually and then combined into a single rating. Application to several systems in the European Union (E.U.), specifically in Portugal, shows that the method is transferable, and thus is useful for development of management measures in both the Unites States and E.U. This approach identifies and quantifies the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources to estuaries so that management measures can target inputs for maximum effect. Because nitrogen is often the limiting nutrient in estuarine systems, examples of source identification and quantification for nitrogen have been developed for 11 coastal watersheds on the U.S. east coast using the WATERSN model. In general, estuaries in the Northeastern United States receive most of their nitrogen from human sewage, followed by atmospheric deposition. This is in contrast to some watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay) and South Atlantic (Pamlico Sound), which receive most of their nitrogen from agricultural runoff. Source identification is important for implementing effective management measures that should be monitored for success using assessment methods, as described herein. For instance, these results suggest that Northeastern estuaries would likely benefit most from improved sewage treatment, where as the Mid and South Atlantic systems would benefit most from agricultural runoff reductions.     

太湖流域1954~2006年气候变化及其演变趋势

用Mann Kendall统计检验方法对太湖流域6个气象站点1954~2006年降水、气温、相对湿度、日照时数的变化趋势和时空特征进行了分析，结果表明：50余年来太湖流域降水量呈较弱的增加趋势，冬季和夏季降水增加显著；空间变化趋势表现为北部地区降水量呈下降趋势，东南部地区呈上升趋势。年平均相对湿度表现为微弱的下降趋势，M K倾斜度值为 -099%/10 a；春、秋季相对湿度都显著减小，而夏季减小幅度较弱，冬季减小现象不显著。年平均气温呈现明显上升趋势，并表现出最低气温比最高气温增高趋势显著的特点，冬、春季增温显著；空间分布变化趋势为以平湖和溧阳为中心的两个地区上升趋势最小，以上海为中心地区上升幅度较大。年日照时数的下降趋势幅度较大，以溧阳为中心的西部地区最为明显，四个季节日照时数都呈减少的趋势；空间分布变化趋势表现为全流域呈减少趋势，由西向东减少幅度依次减小。气候变暖，降水将进一步增加，必然导致径流也呈增加趋势，在一定程度上加大了太湖流域洪涝灾害发生的可能性。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对太湖流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为太湖流域未来气候变化情景的构建提供科学依据。     

Global Trend of Low-carbon Economy and China's Responses

Based on the analysis on the global economic crisis,climate change crisis and their mutual underlying reasons,the authors believe that low-carbon economy has become an inevitable choice to break through the dual crises,coordinate the economic development,and protect the global climate.The global trend of low-carbon economy finds expression in Green Recovery currently,while,in a long run,it will give rise to a new pattern of world competition in politics,economy,technology,trade and finance.The impact of the...     

中国城镇化态势分析和可持续城镇化政策建议

在阐述今后15年中国城镇化面临的就业和收入差距、资源和环境、区域发展、政府管治等四大挑战之后，分析了到2020年中国城镇化水平年均增长0．6、0.8、1．0和1．2个百分点的4种态势。如按1978—2002年城镇年均提供636万人就业考虑，到2020年中国城镇化水平年均增长不宜超过0．7个百分点；如果考虑到2005年上半年城镇安排595万人就业，则城镇化水平年均增长1．2个百分点也是可行的。但是，对于所有4种态势，土地短缺都是一个棘手的问题。最后就可持续城镇化提出的政策建议包括：①引导农村富余劳动力向城镇有序转移；②贯彻落实大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的方针；③高效利用和节约资源，保护生态环境；④统筹城乡规划，加强对经济区发展的引导；⑤贯彻落实工业反哺农业，城市支持农村的方针；⑥建立多元化的城镇基础设施投资体制，大力吸引民间和国际资本；⑦全面推进城镇管理体制创新，制定公众参与政策；⑧坚持按城镇化的客观规律办事，控制地方政府的城镇化热情。     

Characteristics and recent trends of sulfur dioxide at urban, rural, and background sites in North China: Effectiveness of control measures

SO₂ measurements made in recent years at sites in Beijing and its surrounding areas are performed to study the variations and trends of surface SO₂ at different types of sites in Northern China. The overall average concentrations of SO₂ are (16.8 ± 13.1) ppb, (14.8 ± 9.4) ppb, and (7.5 ± 4.0) ppb at China Meteorological Administration (CMA, Beijing urban area), Gucheng (GCH, relatively polluted rural area, 110 km to the southwest of Beijing urban area), and Shangdianzi (SDZ, clean background area, 100 km to the northeast of Beijing urban area), respectively. The SO₂ levels in winter (heating season) are 4-6 folds higher than those in summer. There are highly significant correlations among the daily means of SO₂ at different sites, indicating regional characteristics of SO₂ pollution. Diurnal patterns of surface SO₂ at all sites have a common feature with a daytime peak, which is probably caused by the downward mixing and/or the advection transport of SO₂-richer air over the North China Plain. The concentrations of SO₂ at CMA and GCH show highly significant downward trends (-4.4 ppb/yr for CMA and -2.4 ppb/yr for GCH), while a less significant trend (-0.3 ppb/yr) is identified in the data from SDZ, reflecting the character of SDZ as a regional atmospheric background site in North China. The SO₂ concentrations of all three sites show a significant decrease from period before to after the control measures for the 2008 Olympic Games, suggesting that the SO₂ pollution control has long-term effectiveness and benefits. In the post-Olympics period, the mean concentrations of SO₂ at CMA, GCH, and SDZ are (14.3 ± 11.0) ppb, (12.1 ± 7.7) ppb, and (7.5 ± 4.0) ppb, respectively, with reductions of 26%, 36%, and 13%, respectively, compared to the levels before. Detailed analysis shows that the differences of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction were not the dominant factors for the significant differences of SO₂ between the pre-Olympics and post-Olympics periods. By extracting the data being more representative of local or regional characteristics, a reduction of up to 40% for SO₂ in polluted areas and a reduction of 20% for regional SO₂ are obtained for the effect of control measures implemented for the Olympic Games.     

Seasonal trend of ambient PCDD/Fs in Tianjin City, northern China using active sampling strategy

The spatial concentrations, seasonal trends, profiles and congener pairs of ambient polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were investigated within a seasonally active sampling scheme during Jun 2008 and Jan 2009 in Tianjin City, northern China. The PCDD/F concentrations ranged 14.2-172 fg I-TEQ/m³ (average 69.3 fg I-TEQ/m³) in summer and (89.8-1.01) × 10³ fg I-TEQ/m³ (average 509 fg I-TEQ/m³) in winter, respectively, except for the E-waste dismantling site where much higher values were observed (1.04 × 10³ fg I-TEQ/m³ in summer and 7.123 × 10³ fg I-TEQ/m³ in winter). The results indicated a significantly seasonal trend with higher TEQ values in winter as compared with summer, which could be related to increased emission sources and seasonal variations of the atmospheric boundary layer height. 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF was the dominant contributor to the total PCDD/F toxic equivalents, and 2,3,7,8-TCDD was detected at almost all the sampling sites in winter. Most of the similarly substituted PCDD/F congener pairs exhibited high correlations, suggesting that they might have similar environmental fate or sources. But different seasonal and spatial distributions of PCDD/F concentrations indicated that the emission sources might be intermittent.     

几种网格数据处理方法的应用与评述

对于利用网格布点所测得数据的处理,可采用积分法、趋势面法、多项式法和平均值法,各种处理方法各有其特点。平均值法计算简单,各个网格权重相同,意义明了,但精度不高;积分法和趋势面法考虑到了位于中心的网格对整个区域的贡献率大,组成的三角形多,统计时利用次数就多,边缘的网格数据利用次数少,物理意义明确。积分法还可计算总量,趋势面法可以在图上表示区域分布及变化趋势;多项式法除了计算其平均值外,还可模拟测定值,可计算测得数值序列趋势值和偏差值,分析污染物分布及变化情况。使用时要根据分析对象的物理意义及研究目的不同,选择不同的数学模型和计算公式。     

2006~2020年广东省大气甲醛排放演变特征

大气甲醛（HCHO）是臭氧（O₃）和细颗粒物（PM_2.5）二次组分的关键前体物,在大气光化学反应和二次污染形成过程中扮演着重要角色,并存在致癌性.然而,当前对大气HCHO排放来源认识存在不足,制约了二次污染形成机制研究和污染防控策略制定.采用排放因子和成分谱结合方法,建立2006~2020年广东省HCHO排放趋势清单,识别了广东省主要HCHO排放来源和排放时空演变特征.结果表明,2006~2020年期间广东省HCHO排放量在3.9~5.6万t区间波动,整体呈现极微弱的下降趋势;生物质燃烧源是广东省重要HCHO排放源,而受到管控措施的显著影响,其排放量占比从2006年的58%降至2020年的27%;溶剂使用源的HCHO排放则逐渐突显,2020年占比增长至28%,并成为广东省首要排放源,其中塑料制品和沥青铺路是主要贡献行业.移动源中以柴油作为燃料的工程机械和货车也是HCHO重要排放来源;虽然珠三角和非珠三角地区对广东省HCHO排放量贡献相当,但空间分布结果表明HCHO排放热点区域分别集中于珠三角中心区域和非珠三角的东西两角,这是由于珠三角主要来源为溶剂使用源和移动源,而非珠三角主要受生物质燃烧源影响.因此,未来应进一步加强珠三角中心区域的工业和移动源减排以及粤西地区的生物质燃烧监管.     

武汉汉江水源地水质变化趋势及风险分析

武汉汉江水源地是全国重要饮用水水源地之一,其水质好坏关系到武汉市数百万居民生活及生产用水安全.在引汉济渭、南水北调中线和鄂北调水等大型水利工程建设运行背景下,利用2004～2021年水质监测成果,对武汉市汉江水源地水质变化趋势及风险进行研究.结果表明,武汉汉江水源地水体中总磷、高锰酸盐指数和氨氮等污染物浓度与武汉市城市集中式地表水饮用水水源保护区管理要求存在一定差异,尤其是总磷存在较大超标风险.水源地水体中藻类生长基本不受氮、磷和硅浓度限制,若不考虑其他因素,水温适宜时(6～12℃)暴发硅藻“水华”的风险较高;来水水质对水源地影响较大,西湖水厂至宗关水厂取水口间可能存在污染物汇入;高锰酸盐指数、总氮、总磷和氨氮等水质参数浓度时空变化趋势不一致,尤其是氮、磷元素,2016年以来其比值呈快速上升趋势,水体N/P的显著变化可能会引起浮游藻类种群结构及数量改变,从而影响供水安全.水源地水体总体处于中营养至轻度富营养状态,极个别时段可能会出现中度富营养的状况,当前水体营养状态有好转趋势.有必要对水源地污染物来源、数量和变化趋势深入调查以化解潜在供水风险.