几种网格数据处理方法的应用与评述

对于利用网格布点所测得数据的处理,可采用积分法、趋势面法、多项式法和平均值法,各种处理方法各有其特点。平均值法计算简单,各个网格权重相同,意义明了,但精度不高;积分法和趋势面法考虑到了位于中心的网格对整个区域的贡献率大,组成的三角形多,统计时利用次数就多,边缘的网格数据利用次数少,物理意义明确。积分法还可计算总量,趋势面法可以在图上表示区域分布及变化趋势;多项式法除了计算其平均值外,还可模拟测定值,可计算测得数值序列趋势值和偏差值,分析污染物分布及变化情况。使用时要根据分析对象的物理意义及研究目的不同,选择不同的数学模型和计算公式。     

2006~2020年广东省大气甲醛排放演变特征

大气甲醛（HCHO）是臭氧（O₃）和细颗粒物（PM_2.5）二次组分的关键前体物,在大气光化学反应和二次污染形成过程中扮演着重要角色,并存在致癌性.然而,当前对大气HCHO排放来源认识存在不足,制约了二次污染形成机制研究和污染防控策略制定.采用排放因子和成分谱结合方法,建立2006~2020年广东省HCHO排放趋势清单,识别了广东省主要HCHO排放来源和排放时空演变特征.结果表明,2006~2020年期间广东省HCHO排放量在3.9~5.6万t区间波动,整体呈现极微弱的下降趋势;生物质燃烧源是广东省重要HCHO排放源,而受到管控措施的显著影响,其排放量占比从2006年的58%降至2020年的27%;溶剂使用源的HCHO排放则逐渐突显,2020年占比增长至28%,并成为广东省首要排放源,其中塑料制品和沥青铺路是主要贡献行业.移动源中以柴油作为燃料的工程机械和货车也是HCHO重要排放来源;虽然珠三角和非珠三角地区对广东省HCHO排放量贡献相当,但空间分布结果表明HCHO排放热点区域分别集中于珠三角中心区域和非珠三角的东西两角,这是由于珠三角主要来源为溶剂使用源和移动源,而非珠三角主要受生物质燃烧源影响.因此,未来应进一步加强珠三角中心区域的工业和移动源减排以及粤西地区的生物质燃烧监管.     

武汉汉江水源地水质变化趋势及风险分析

武汉汉江水源地是全国重要饮用水水源地之一,其水质好坏关系到武汉市数百万居民生活及生产用水安全.在引汉济渭、南水北调中线和鄂北调水等大型水利工程建设运行背景下,利用2004～2021年水质监测成果,对武汉市汉江水源地水质变化趋势及风险进行研究.结果表明,武汉汉江水源地水体中总磷、高锰酸盐指数和氨氮等污染物浓度与武汉市城市集中式地表水饮用水水源保护区管理要求存在一定差异,尤其是总磷存在较大超标风险.水源地水体中藻类生长基本不受氮、磷和硅浓度限制,若不考虑其他因素,水温适宜时(6～12℃)暴发硅藻“水华”的风险较高;来水水质对水源地影响较大,西湖水厂至宗关水厂取水口间可能存在污染物汇入;高锰酸盐指数、总氮、总磷和氨氮等水质参数浓度时空变化趋势不一致,尤其是氮、磷元素,2016年以来其比值呈快速上升趋势,水体N/P的显著变化可能会引起浮游藻类种群结构及数量改变,从而影响供水安全.水源地水体总体处于中营养至轻度富营养状态,极个别时段可能会出现中度富营养的状况,当前水体营养状态有好转趋势.有必要对水源地污染物来源、数量和变化趋势深入调查以化解潜在供水风险.     

Relationships between nutrients and macroalgal biomass in a brazilian coastal lagoon: the impact of a lock construction

The Piratininga Lagoon is a coastal, choked, and brackish ecosystem in SE Brazil, where uncontrolled discharge of domestic sewage led to eutrophication, increasing massive proliferation of benthic macroalgae, and decrease of the lagoon mean depth. In 1992, a dam was constructed by the local Municipality at its tidal channel aiming at stabilising its water level. Main physico-chemical parameters, together with macroalgae biomass, nutrient concentrations in the water column, particulate organic carbon, and chlorophyll a were recorded monthly at 4 sampling stations within the Piratininga lagoon from April 1994 to April 1995. The data, compared with “before-lock” existing studies, show that nutrients and chlorophyll a concentrations significantly increased after the lock construction. Based on the functioning of the ecosystem, we propose to harvest the algal mats before their decomposition period in order to partly remove the nutrient stocks from the lagoon and the future ecosystem modelling to predict the impact of natural and anthropogenic eutrophication.     

陕西省的地震危险趋势估计

本文应用计算某一地震带(区)上地震复发周期的公式;T_m=m×10~(bm-a)以及灰色系统理论的动态模型对陕西地区进行了地震危险趋势估计。     

Environmental issues in Sweden 1973–1989: Science and policy

The aim of this study is to analyze the environmental agenda in Sweden during the last two decades. A content analysis was made of all articles in a Swedish journal,Miljö-Aktuellt. Further, to elucidate the evolutionary process of problem formulation and reformulation, two cases were investigated, dealing with the impact of plant nutrients and mercury on surface water quality. The transport of heavy metals is an essential component of the ecological process and problem of acidification, and similarly, plant nutrients are part of the concept of eutrophication. Two concepts, the research cycle and the policy cycle, are tentatively applied to the conceptualizations of acidification and eutrophication. Additional data for the latter part of the study is supplied from parliamentary motions during 1973–1989. The substance/media focus of the 1970s was connected to a point-source abatement strategy, which mainly aimed at removing negative effects at a local level. The development of a national preventive strategy is traced in problem formulations related to “processes” going on in the technosphere: wastes, noise, energy production, traffic, and toxic substances. This period lasted from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, and the need for improved resource management as a means to control environmental problems has been a generally accepted idea. However, this does not mean that measures actually taken are sufficient in a material balance perspective. Further, in the 1980s there was a strong emphasis upon processes in the ecosphere. This focus also implies source-related policies. To a certain extent, the remedies are within the scope of national capabilities, but the international dimension is becoming increasingly important. Scientific proofs of resource and environment degradation are essential to induce political action and to stimulate international cooperation. From this study, however, it is not possible to assess the existence of any particular policy-triggering information.     

三峡库区虫媒和自然疫源性疾病分析

为了解三峡库区人群近7年来主要虫媒和自然疫源性疾病的发病水平和流行趋势,在选出的15个三峡库区人群健康监测点,按照《三峡库区疾病监测方案》,每月收集传染病发病资料及鼠、蚊类等媒介生物监测资料。结合全国传染病疫情报告系统的有关发病资料,分别进行不同年份、不同地区和不同季节发病趋势的比较和影响因素分析。连续7年的监测结果显示,甲类传染病鼠疫未发生,流行性出血热、钩端螺旋体病、流行性乙型脑炎、疟疾等以病媒生物传播为主要传播途径的虫媒和自然疫源性疾病累计报告病例157例,其总体发病呈下降趋势。疟疾、出血热发病水平明显低于全国,而钩体病和乙脑发病水平则高于全国,除疟疾外的其余3种疾病均伴有小的发病高峰出现,但仍以散发为主。表明这些与环境变化关系较为密切的虫媒和自然疫源性疾病的发生,随着工程施工、移民新址建设和移民搬迁并未发生明显变化。但由于环境因素影响的长期性、复杂性,仍需长期连续地开展监测,密切关注发病趋势的变化。     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

人因视角下建筑安全研究现状及发展趋势分析

为了提高建筑安全后续研究的有效性与针对性,从人因视角对其研究现状及发展趋势进行了系统总结。采用定性文献综述的方法从实践需求和理论发展2个维度对国内外人因相关文献资料进行梳理、研判,通过明确焦点领域、核心方向、关键关注点等途径以明晰建筑安全研究现状及发展趋势,确定发展瓶颈,据此介入寻求突破的可能。研究结果表明:建筑工人不安全行为心理研究不足是人因视角下制约建筑安全理论发展的瓶颈,也是提升建筑安全管理应对的关键着力点;同时,从认知过程新视角证实了基于认知神经学范畴的研究是突破上述瓶颈的关键方向,在此基础上结合神经测量技术ERP新工具论证了该论断的可行性,为后续研究提供借鉴。     

世界替代农业及其发展趋势

本文对世界替代农业的主要类型和特点、中国的生态农业与发达国家的替代衣业的区别以及世界替代农业存在的主要问题进行了较详细的阐述，最后对世界替代农业的发展趋势作了展望。