上海典型燃烧源铅和汞大气排放趋势分析

上海百年来快速的城市化进程导致资源能源的大量消耗,并向城市环境中排放了大量有毒有害污染物.为探寻上海典型燃烧源重金属大气排放历史及趋势,基于上海化石燃料(煤炭和汽油)的历史消耗量及其大气铅(Pb)和汞(Hg)的排放因子,估算了上海主要燃煤部门(燃煤电厂、工业部门和居民生活)和机动车燃油大气Pb和Hg的历史排放量.结果表明,1949~2015年间大气Pb和Hg的燃煤排放量随时间推进均呈现先增长后下降趋势,即1949年解放后快速增长的煤炭消耗和较少的烟尘控制措施使其排放量出现急剧地波动式增长,至20世纪80~90年达到高峰,此后上海采取了各种减排和控制措施,使得目前三大燃煤源的大气Pb和Hg排放量出现大幅度下降.1980~2015年间上海大气Hg的燃煤排放比例一直占据主导地位(87.5%~99.7%).含铅汽油自1997年完全退出上海市场之后,燃煤排放替代其成为大气Pb的主要贡献源(78.2%~83.5%),然而自2005年起随着汽油消耗的急速增长,汽油燃烧排放又成为其主要贡献源(55.5%~79.1%).     

中国近15年气溶胶光学厚度时空分布特征

利用MODIS 04_L2气溶胶日产品统计其月度、季度及年度均值数据,研究中国大陆地区近15a气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）空间分布状况;通过Spearman秩相关检验法,探讨中国大陆地区近15a的AOD年均值与季均值的逐年变化趋势.结果表明：在空间分布上,我国AOD多年均值高值中心主要位于四川盆地、南疆盆地、华中地区、长江三角洲、华北平原、关中平原,珠江三角洲地区也有小范围的高值区;低值中心主要位于川西和藏东南、内蒙和冀北交界以及河套地区.在逐年变化趋势上,西北地区AOD值主要呈下降趋势,其中川西和藏东南、陕甘宁交界呈显著下降趋势;东部地区AOD值主要呈现上升趋势,且华中地区、长江三角洲、华北平原以及关中平原呈显著上升趋势;在全国范围内AOD年均值整体呈现上升趋势,但趋势不显著;AOD值随季节变化较显著,具体表现为春夏较高、秋冬较低;AOD高值区以及呈上升趋势的地区基本都处在胡焕庸线东南,表明人类活动对AOD值影响比较显著.     

Spatial and temporal variation of haze in China from 1961 to 2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the climatic characteristics and long-term spatial and temporal variations of haze occurrence in China. The impact factors of haze trends are also discussed. Meteorological data from 1961 to 2012 and daily PM₁₀ concentrations from 2003 to 2012 were employed in this study. The results indicate that the annual-average hazy days at all stations have been increasing rapidly from 4 days in 1961 to 18 days in 2012. The maximum number of haze days occur in winter (41.1%) while the minimum occur in summer (10.4%). During 1961-2012, the high occurrence areas of haze shifted from central to south and east regions of China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan Province are the high occurrence areas for haze, while the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) have become regions with high haze occurrences in the last 25 years. Temperature and pressure are positively correlated with the number of haze days. However, wind, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration are negatively correlated with the number of haze days. The key meteorological factors affecting the formation and dissipation of haze vary for high and low altitudes, and are closely related to anthropogenic activities. In recent years, anthropogenic activities have played a more important role in haze occurrences compared with meteorological factors.     

海河流域河流氮污染特征及其演变趋势

收集海河流域重点水功能区主要监测站点2000—2011年总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH+4-N)、硝氮(NO-3-N)、亚硝氮(NO-2-N)指标的历史数据,并且实测2009年350个样点的氮素指标,以探明海河流域河流氮污染特征及其演变趋势.结果表明,海河流域氮污染现状严重,2011年TN、NH+4-N、NO-3-N和NO-2-N的平均浓度分别为7.92、4.25、1.28、0.013 mg·L-1,TN、NH+4-N超地表水V类水质标准现象严重(2.0 mg·L-1),其中海河干流水系、北三河(北运河、潮白河、蓟运河)水系和子牙河水系污染较重.在空间尺度上,海河流域氮污染沿山区-平原方向呈现出明显逐渐上升的变化特征.在时间尺度上,TN与NH+4-N浓度变化均在2005年与2011年出现峰值,TN浓度与NH+4-N、NO-3-N、NO-2-N浓度呈现极显著正相关(p0.01),NH+4-N是海河流域氮污染的主要污染因子.2000—2011年,NH+4-N劣V类(2.0 mg·L-1)站点比例整体上表现为减少趋势,由2000年的28.87%降为2011年的17.56%,劣V类站点NH+4-N浓度均值由2000年的7.91 mg·L-1降为2011年的6.50mg·L-1.在海河流域中,黑龙港运东水系、子牙河水系河流NH+4-N污染较重,各年平均浓度均超过地表水V类水质标准,NH+4-N平均浓度呈现随年份逐渐降低的趋势.在海河流域氮污染整体表现为好转的趋势下,氮污染的现状仍然严峻,需加强控制.     

Ecological knowledge and North Sea environmental policies

In an analysis of North Sea eutrophication science and policies, focusing on the period 1980–2005, it was investigated how scientific information was used in policy-making. The analysis focused on the central assumptions of the rational policy-making model, i.e. that scientific information can be used to formulate decisions, based upon objective scientific information (rational decision-making), and secondly, can support implementing these decisions (rational management). In general terms, the following was concluded:

• •More knowledge has increased rather than reduced uncertainty;
• •In order to handle the problem of dealing with complexity and uncertainty at the political level, a simplification of facts has occurred, in this case focusing on nutrients as the main cause of the problem, at the same time excluding other possible causes;
• •Both the limited scientific view (i.e. the nutrient view) and the exaggeration of the seriousness of the problem (impacts, scope) have been used as an authoritative basis for the justification of political decisions. Both were not supported by the majority of the scientific community;
• •New scientific knowledge, not in support of existing policies, has been excluded from the policy process;
• •The science–policy interface, mainly consisting of “civil-servant scientists”, that emerged and increased its influence over the period of investigation, has been the central element in the simplification and exclusion process.

The main lesson learned is that work at the interface of science and policy must be subject to democratic principles, i.e. be transparent and involving all parties with a stake in the issue under consideration.     

Integrating empirical and heuristic knowledge in a KBS to approach stream eutrophication

The nutrient enrichment of rivers and its consequences are among the most severe water quality problems in Europe, causing eutrophication and other problems. The decision-making processes involved in the management of these problems require extensive human expertise from people who deal directly with day-to-day stream problems, as well as empirical knowledge based on scientific research. This means that eutrophication is a complex problem, the optimal management of which requires an integrated and multidisciplinary approach. This approach can be taken using a Knowledge-Based System (KBS) built upon the concepts and methods of human reasoning. Accordingly, a KBS was developed within the STREAMES project. In this KBS most of the knowledge needed for managing eutrophication problems was organised and structured in the form of a decision tree (DT). The methodology specially developed to build this KBS, as well as the internal structure of the eutrophication decision tree, is presented here. The good DT obtained led to consider the KBS a suitable tool to support the management of eutrophication.     

Eutrophication assessment in Greek coastal waters

An attempt is made to assess eutrophication in Greek coastal waters, since the measurements made to date at a few stations do not suffice. In this paper, for more accurate seasonal variations in the nutrient contents, the water masses and their volumes are taken into account. The Pagassitikos Gulf is given as an example and compared to other polluted areas in the Aegean. The variations in the levels of nutrients are due to differences in the sources, as well as the morphology of the bottom and the circulation of waters.     

Evidence of Large-Scale Chronic Eutrophication in the Great Barrier Reef: Quantification of Chlorophyll a Thresholds for Sustaining Coral Reef Communities

Long-term monitoring data show that hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has reduced by >70 % over the past century. Although authorities and many marine scientists were in denial for many years, it is now widely accepted that this reduction is largely attributable to the chronic state of eutrophication that exists throughout most of the GBR. Some reefs in the far northern GBR where the annual mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) is in the lower range of the proposed Eutrophication Threshold Concentration for Chl a (~0.2–0.3 mg m⁻³) show little or no evidence of degradation over the past century. However, the available evidence suggests that coral diseases and the crown-of-thorns starfish will proliferate in such waters and hence the mandated eutrophication Trigger values for Chl a (~0.4–0.45 mg m⁻³) will need to be decreased to ~0.2 mg m⁻³ for sustaining coral reef communities.     

Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow‐breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species’ migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long‐term monitoring data from across the species’ range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3–94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species’ range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow‐breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial‐scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species’ populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.     

淀浦河近十年水质评价及变化趋势研究

针对区域地表水污染特征,采用综合污染指数法,评价了淀浦河中上游段2005年-2014年间水质达标情况,计算了主要污染物的污染负荷,运用季节性肯达尔趋势检验分析了淀浦河中上游段水质变化趋势.结果表明,近十年来淀浦河中上游段水质均未达到规划水质要求,但总体水质呈改善趋势,水质以轻度污染为主,各主要污染物中,氨氮的污染负荷最大,总磷次之,呈现以氨氮和总磷为主的富营养化污染特征,研究结果为淀浦河的水质改善和水环境的污染防治等工作提供了重要依据.