农村商品流通网络模型及其发展趋势

农村商品流通是影响农业发展和农民消费的直接因素，完善农村商品流通网络对开拓农村市场，增加农民收入，发展农村经济具有推动作用。首先论述了农村商品流通网络的内涵；其次提出了基于主导要素的3种农村商品流通网络模型，即交易市场主导型、企业组织主导型和流通技术主导型，并对网络主体及其关系等方面进行了分析；最后提出了农村商品流通网络的发展趋势及其相应对策。     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL WATER QUALITY VARIABILITY IN THE PIRACICABA RIVER BASIN,BRAZIL1

ABSTRACT: The spatial and temporal variability of dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), nitrate concentration and total coliform (TC) were investigated at nine sampling stations distributed along the main rivers of the Piracicaba River Basin, a 12,400 km² catchment located in São Paulo State, one of the most developed regions of Brazil. Spatially, a downstream impoverishment of water quality conditions was observed, as seen by the decrease of DO, and increase of BOD, nitrate, and TC. These changes were probably caused by accumulating downstream discharge of domestic and industrial sewage. Temporal evaluation of 18 years of data showed that DO decreased with time for the majority of the sampling stations, while BOD, nitrate, and TC increased. A law, approved at the end of 1991, proposed a new water tax for river water extraction for industrial and agricultural use. The amount of this tax is determined according to the water quality of the extracted water. Therefore, the evaluation of the water quality status in this basin is a first step to help resources managers to determine the values for this tax.     

遂宁市"十五"水环境质量现状暨"十一五"水环境质量趋势分析

依据遂宁市“十五”水环境监测五年的基础数据,结合遂宁市“十一五”经济规划,分析评价了遂宁市“十一五”水环境质量变化趋势,预测出“十一五”末,我市CODcr和氨氮两个主要污染物入河量将有所增加,水环境质量将有恶化趋势。     

水资源管理模式发展趋势探析

随着工业进步和社会发展,水污染亦日趋严重,已对人类的生存安全构成重大威胁,成为人类健康、经济和社会可持续发展的重大障碍。水安全与水资源管理是全球战略问题,如何进行水资源管理和研究也是当今社会面临的难题。本文就水资源管理模式发展趋势进行阐述。     

Investigating traffic fatality trends and restraint use among rear-seat passengers in the United States, 2000–2016

Introduction: Motor-vehicle crash is one of the leading causes of unintentional injury death in the United States. Previous studies focused on fatalities among drivers and front-seat passengers, with a limited number of studies examining rear-seat passenger fatalities. The objectives of this study were to assess trends in rear-seat passenger motor-vehicle fatalities in the United States from 2000 to 2016 and to identify demographic factors associated with being unrestrained among fatally injured rear-seat passengers. Methods: Rear-seat passenger fatality data were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database. The fatality rate ratios for overall rear-seat passengers and for different age and sex groups were determined by comparing fatality rates in 2000 and 2016 using random effects models. Risk ratios of being unrestrained for age and sex groups were obtained using general estimating equations. Results: Compared to 2000, the overall rear-seat passenger fatality rate in 2016 decreased by 44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39–49%). In particular, the fatality rate among rear-seat passengers decreased more in males than females, and passengers aged 14–19 years experienced a larger decline than all other age groups. Fatally injured male rear-seat passengers had a higher risk of being unrestrained (adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.07) than their female counterparts, and both youngest (≤13 years) and oldest (65–85 years) passengers were less likely to be unrestrained than those aged 20–64 years. Conclusions: Overall, fatality rates among rear-seat passengers have declined, with differential degrees of improvement by age and sex. Practical Applications: Continued restraint use enforcement campaigns targeted at teenagers and males would further preserve them from fatal injuries and improve traffic safety for the overall population.     

雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势及原因分析

论文利用1956-2000 年近45a 的天然径流逐月资料, 1956-2004 年近50a 的气温、降水逐 月资料, 分析了20 世纪下半叶雅鲁藏布江流域径流变化特征及其与气候变化的关系。研究表明: 雅 鲁藏布江流域径流的年际变化较稳定, 年内分配极不平衡, 月最大径流量占全年百分比达30.1%, 而月最小径流量只占全年的2.1%, 枯水季节径流量和洪水季节径流量相差较悬殊; 雅鲁藏布江流 域普遍存在升温的变化趋势, 同时流域内降水增加趋势较明显, 变化周期与径流变化周期较一致。 从雅鲁藏布江流域天然径流代际变化的初步分析来看, 流域来水的增加, 主要受制于降水和气温的 变化, 也受到流域地表状况变化的影响, 同时也可能是河流丰枯长周期变化的表现。这种周期变化 还需相关资料的验证和分析。     

Recovery or decline of the northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain.     

Description and sensitivity analysis for the LESV model: Water quality variables and the balance of organisms in a fjordic region of restricted exchange

In this paper we describe a new ecological model for Regions of Restricted Exchange (RRE), such as fjords, estuaries, rias and lagoons. The model is intended to simulate the impact of external nutrient input on microplankton (phytoplankton plus pelagic microheterotrophs) in RREs. We have implemented the model with the practical purpose of finding a safe limit to the capacities of RRE to assimilate fish-farm waste. Sea-cage farming of fish is increasing in fjords in northern and southern hemispheres, and its external nutrient input can lead to environmental problems such as eutrophication and deoxygenation. The model includes a physical system of three layers with exchanges driven by tidal movement, freshwater input, wind stirring. The biological part includes two microplankton compartments, each parameterizing a microbial loop and each containing chlorophyll. The first compartment represents diatoms and associated heterotrophs, and the second compartment represents flagellates and associated heterotrophs. As well as the balance of these organisms, the model simulates concentrations of nutrient N, P, and Si, dissolved oxygen, and water transparency. Chlorophyll and nutrient change are linked by yields (q  ). Losses of microplankton to grazing by mesozooplankton or benthos are simulated by a temperature-dependent grazing pressure acting on a mean loss (_L0)$(L_0)$. The model also includes the ability to simulate point source inputs of nutrients or organic matter and a generic tracer with first order decay. Sea-cage fish-farms exemplify such point sources. In order to explore model behaviour, we included inputs from a 1500 tonnes salmon farm multiplied by a factor (γ)$(\gamma )$. We carried out sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters and forcing variables in the case of the shallow Scottish fjord, Loch Creran, in 1975 before the introduction of salmon farming. We tested the model fit to this pristine state (γ=0)$(\gamma =0)$, using Major Axis Regression of simulated variables on observed variables. The model successfully follows the seasonal cycles of chlorophyll (summer over both microplanktons) and the limiting nutrients (P, N). The sensitivity analysis identified three sets of key parameters: (γ)$(\gamma )$ and other fish-farm coefficients, which control farm waste effects on an RRE; (_L0)$(L_0)$ parameters for each microplankton, which link these to the rest of the ecosystem and which have implications for future inclusion of shellfish farming in the model and, chlorophyll yields from nutrients (q), which are crucial for the predication of eutrophication and the ecological understanding of the model.     

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models

Model practitioners increasingly place emphasis on rigorous quantitative error analysis in aquatic biogeochemical models and the existing initiatives range from the development of alternative metrics for goodness of fit, to data assimilation into operational models, to parameter estimation techniques. However, the treatment of error in many of these efforts is arguably selective and/or ad hoc. A Bayesian hierarchical framework enables the development of robust probabilistic analysis of error and uncertainty in model predictions by explicitly accommodating measurement error, parameter uncertainty, and model structure imperfection. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical formulation for simultaneously calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system) with differences in their trophic conditions, prior precisions of model parameters, available information, measurement error or inter-annual variability. Our statistical formulation also explicitly considers the uncertainty in model inputs (model parameters, initial conditions), the analytical/sampling error associated with the field data, and the discrepancy between model structure and the natural system dynamics (e.g., missing key ecological processes, erroneous formulations, misspecified forcing functions). The comparison between observations and posterior predictive monthly distributions indicates that the plankton models calibrated under the Bayesian hierarchical scheme provided accurate system representations for all the scenarios examined. Our results also suggest that the Bayesian hierarchical approach allows overcoming problems of insufficient local data by “borrowing strength” from well-studied sites and this feature will be highly relevant to conservation practices of regions with a high number of freshwater resources for which complete data could never be practically collected. Finally, we discuss the prospect of extending this framework to spatially explicit biogeochemical models (e.g., more effectively connect inshore with offshore areas) along with the benefits for environmental management, such as the optimization of the sampling design of monitoring programs and the alignment with the policy practice of adaptive management.     

大伙房水库水质评价及变化趋势分析

根据2012年水质监测资料对大伙房水库水质进行了现状评价及分析,结果表明：水库库区各项指标的年均值均符合地表水Ⅱ类标准,总氮单独评价为劣V类,是目前水库库区的首要污染物。从污染物变化趋势来看,2008—2011年总氮浓度呈上升趋势,2012年有所下降;总磷浓度除2010年受洪水的影响突然增高外,其他年份基本持平。