黄土高原地区农林牧业生态系统中主要灾害及减灾对策

农林牧业在黄土高原地区国民经济发展中占有十分重要的位置。本文根据全区的生态特点,对农业系统的生态环境恶化的几种主要形式进行了分析,同时提出了农林牧业整体建设的综合整治对策。     

WATER QUALITY TRENDS AT INFLOWS TO EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK1

ABSTRACT: Water quality data collected at inflows to Everglades National Park (ENP) are analyzed for trends using the seasonal Kendall test (Hirsch et al., 1982; Hirsch and Slack, 1984). The period of record is 1977–1989 for inflows to Shark River Slough and 1983–1989 for inflows to Taylor Slough and ENP's Coastal Basin. The analysis considers 20 water quality components, including nutrients, field measurements, inorganic species, and optical properties. Significant (p<0.10) increasing trends in total phosphorus concentration are indicated at eight out of nine stations examined. When the data are adjusted to account for variations in antecedent rainfall and water surface elevation, increasing trends are indicated at seven out of nine stations. Phosphorus trend magnitudes range from 4 percent/year to 21 percent/year Decreasing trends in the Total N/P ratio are detected at seven out of nine stations. N/P trend magnitudes range from -7 percent/year to -15 percent/year. Trends in water quality components other than nutrients are observed less frequently and are of less importance from a water-quality-management perspective. The apparent nutrient trends are not explained by variations in marsh water elevation, antecedent rainfall, flow, or season.     

CONSIDERATIONS OF SCALE IN WATER QUALITY MONITORING AND DATA ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An assumption of scale is inherent in any environmental monitoring exercise. The temporal or spatial scale of interest defines the statistical model which would be most appropriate for a given system and thus affects both sampling design and data analysis. Two monitoring objectives which are strongly tied to scale are the estimation of average conditions and the evaluation of trends. For both of these objectives, the time or spatial scale of interest strongly influences whether a given set of observations should be regarded as independent or serially correlated and affects the importance of serial correlation in choosing statistical methods. In particular serial correlation has a much different effect on the estimation of long-term means than it does on the estimation of specific-period means. For estimating trends, a distinction between serial correlation and trend is scale dependent. An explicit consideration of scale in monitoring system design and data analysis is, therefore, most important for producing meaningful statistical information.     

Modeling hydrology and eutrophication in a Louisiana swamp forest ecosystem

The EPA Storm Water Management Model (1971) was used to model hydrodynamics, nutrient dynamics, and eutrophication in a Louisiana swamp forest ecosystem. The present system of canals and spoil banks in the swamp causes impoundment of swamp areas and does not optimize discharge from the swamp forest. Simulations showed that hydraulics could be managed to increase discharge rates to the lower estuary (22 percent), to increase productivity of the swamp forest (100 percent), and to decrease lake eutrophication (43 percent). This could be done by removing spoil banks in the swamp and allowing upland runoff to pass through the backswamp.     

Particulate phosphorus removal via wetland filtration: An examination of potential for hypertrophic lake restoration

Lake Apopka in Florida, USA, is a large (area=124 km²), hypertrophic (mean total phosphorus=0.220 g/m³; mean chlorophylla=60 mg/m³) lake, with a large sedimentary store of available P (1635 × 10⁶ g P). Phosphorus loading from floodplain farms (132 × 10⁶ g P/yr) has been the primary cause of eutrophication. Assuming elimination of farm P loading, the Vollenweider model predicts a decline in equilibrium P concentration from 0.270 to 0.024 g/m³, if the P sedimentation coefficient (σ) remains constant. It is likely, however, that the value for σ will fall with the elimination of farm loading due to unabated internal P loading from the sediments. Under a worst-case scenario (σ=0), the model predicts that exportation of P from the lake via wetland filtration will greatly accelerate the lake's recovery. Recirculation of lake water through a 21-km², created wetland and elimination of farm P loading is projected to result in a negative P balance for the lake (−23 × 10⁶ g P/yr) leading to depletion of P stores in the lake in about 60 yr. The estimated cost of the project, $20 million, is less than 3% of the estimated cost of dredging. A 3.65-km² demonstration project is underway to test and refine the wetland filtration technique. We believe the technique could be cost-effective for other hypertrophic lakes.     

灰色模型在确定关键污染因子中的应用

将灰色模型引入水环境质量评价中，通过对某个时间段内污染物原始监测数据的灰色处理，从动态演变中找出关键因子，客观地判定各污染因子所起的作用，并对各因子在下一个时间段的发展趋势作出判断，增加了评价的准确性。经过实例运用分析表明，该方法物理意义明确，简便易用。     

微生物制剂在城市湖泊水体生物修复中的作用

利用微生物对富营养化的城市湖泊水体进行生物修复，使水中的污染物降解成H2O、CO2或转化成无害物质。研究表明，该微生物制剂对去除水体中的有机物、叶绿素a、氨氮和提高溶解氧等均有显著效果。为节省运输费用及延长菌液保存期，本试验用惰性粒子流化床对生物制剂进行干燥，固体菌粉末不失活性。     

Environmental impact of two successive chemical treatments in a small shallow eutrophied lake: Part II. Case of copper sulfate

The appearance of cyanobacteria ( > 10 colony per ml) was not prevented after alum treatment. In order to prevent cyanobacteria efflorescences in a small shallow polymictic lake (Courtille, France), copper sulfate was applied. Treatment level was 63 microg 1(-1) as Cu2+ from CUSO4, 5 H2O. Cyanobacteria were kept under control during the summer. Microcystis sp. completely disappeared, which allowed swimming in the lake throughout the tourist season. Microcystis only reappeared 2 months after the treatment. Copper content in the water column only returned to its background level 2 months after copper addition. This high residence time of copper in the water might have been caused by complexation and adsorption of copper on natural organic matter, whose level was high in the ecosystem studied. A mechanism of transfer of 'truly' dissolved copper towards particulate copper has been underlined and explains the disappearance of this fraction of copper in the water column.     

The future monitoring capabilities of four network configurations in eastern Canada

The capability of deposition networks in eastern Canada to resolve regional trends has been examined by Blanchard et al. (1996, Atmospheric Environment 30, 2539–2549). This paper extends the earlier methods to permit evaluation of the need for specific individual sites, comparison of additional network configurations, and consideration of more regions. Parameter estimates for the statistical model are improved by using monthly instead of annual data. For the regions that we examined, eliminating all provincial sites in eastern Canada would cause an increase of 1 to 6 years in the time required for reaching a 90% probabiility of detecting the expected future trends. The elimination of certain key provincial sites may increase the uncertainties in the determination of deposition isopleths of particular interest, such as the 20 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ contours. The statistical techniques presented here are quite general and can be extended to statistical tests or estimators other than those illustrated here.     

对全球气候变化原因及发展趋势之浅见

分析了引起全球气候变化的各种可能原因，对温室气体、植被破坏、水汽变化等对全球气候变化的影响作了概括总结，阐述了全球气候变化发展趋势及气候变化预测中应注意的问题。