上海地区主要农作物气象灾害评估预测警示系统的研究

主要农作物气象灾害评估预测警示系统网页共有二部分内容：历年灾害动态对比和早涝趋势预测与警示。历年灾害动态对比是对比1991年以后上海地区主要表l作物气象灾害的变化情况。早涝趋势预测是在降水趋势预测基础上，对未来月或农时段降水量进行预测。     

Climatology,Trend Analysis and Prediction of Sandstorms and their Associated Dustfall in China

Based on statistical data about Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) and their associated dustfall, features of temporal and spatialdistribution were studied first in this article. SDS and associateddustfalls occurred most often in northern China, especiallynorthwestern China. However, in the last two years, they have atendency to occur on the central and western parts of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. As a result, Beijing is now among the impact areas, and the Chinese government is paying greaterattention to the matter. The changing trends of SDS and associated dustfalls were subsequently analyzed. Occurrences were seen to be decreasing with the feature of fluctuation duringthe period of 1954–2001, but they have slightly increased since 2000. Also, climate factors related to SDS and associated dustfalls were discussed. Finally, it was recommended that methods to predict SDS in China be further studied in the future.     

LONG TERM TRENDS OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: Long term trends in Japan's annual and monthly precipitation are investigated in this study. The statistical significance of a trend at a study site is assessed by the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test, and field significance of trends in climatic Regions II, III, and IV is evaluated using the bootstrap test preserving cross correlation. The practical significance of a trend is judged by a percentage change of the sample mean over an observation period. The field significance assessment demonstrates that annual precipitation in Region II did not show any significant change, but regional precipitation shifts occurred in different months. Precipitation significantly increased by 12.2 percent in May, while it significantly decreased by 12.0, 10.5, 15.6, and 19.7 percent, respectively, in April, September, October, and December. In Region III, annual precipitation declined by 11.8 percent, and monthly precipitation significantly decreased from September through January and in April, with the greatest decrease (38.2 percent) in December. In Region IV, significant reductions occurred in both annual precipitation (by 15.6 percent) and monthly precipitation from September through February and in June and July, with the worst reduction (44.7 percent) in December.     

华东地区地震成组活动特征及未来趋势的定量分析

对华东地区1300年以来中强地震活动特征,利用强震组增益P、强震组效能R和强震组分布变异值S等三种指标进行了定量分析,结果显示该区不同时段、不同震级的地震活动呈现不同的特征和分布类型; 同时用b值方法分析了目前地震活动状态;在此基础上应用泊松模型对未来地震趋势进行了概率预测.     

精确空投缓冲气囊材料研究

介绍了精确空投着陆缓冲的作用原理以及对气囊材料的要求,分析了聚酰胺、聚酯纤维2种气囊织物材料和氯丁橡胶、硅酮2种涂层材料的结构性能及发展,总结了当前主要的新材料技术,提出了着陆缓冲气囊材料的发展趋势.     

1961-2006年东北地区农业气候资源变化特征

应用1961-2006年中国东北三省72个气象台站的气象资料,统计分析了东北三省稳定农耕期、生长期及积温、降水量、日照时数农业气候资源的变化特征,结果表明:研究期间,东北三省平均农耕期、生长期分别延长了2.4 d·10 a^-1、2.3 d·10 a^-1;经Mann-Kendall检验,农耕期长度、生长期长度分别在1988年、1992年发生突变。46 a东北三省积温表现为一致的增多趋势,降水量、日照时数呈减少趋势。分析比较突变年前后两个时段的农业气候资源变化,农耕期、生长期平均积温高值区向东、向北扩展;农耕期降水量高值区、低值区面积萎缩,中值区向东南方向扩张,生长期降水量中高值区面积减少;农耕期平均日照时数呈现高值区、低值区面积减少,而生长期日照时数呈现高值区、低值区面积增大的特点。     

同位素示踪技术在环境领域中的应用研究

稳定碳氮同位素作为一种有效的示踪手段,在研究外源有机质来源和氮循环,特别是污染源的识别方面有着重要意义。在简要总结碳氮同位素的应用现状、分馏效应的基础上,重点论述和分析了稳定氮同位素在富营养化湖泊中的氮源识别,并结合研究现状探讨了研究前景。     

江南水乡古镇城市化倾向及其可持续发展对策——以乌镇、西塘、南浔三镇为例

通过实地调查研究,江南古镇不仅在传统景观、人工环境、社会经济环境以及古镇的功能上持续发生演变,而且体现出水体景观艺术化和水网功能的时尚化、开放空间利用方〖JP2〗式的城市广场化和公园化、古镇居民行为方式的现代化和多样化、现代城市商业街模式和行为商业化,以及现代生活与传统物质空间之间的冲突等严重的城市化倾向和特点。立足于古镇的原真性保护,在城市化过程中古镇应保护和延续农业社会聚落特征,强化古镇时空异化过程;规划景观遗产隔离廊道,保护江南水乡区域景观的完整性和连续性;保护古镇水乡文化的原真性,营造和谐的整体人文生态系统体验;合理调控容量,降低聚集密度和强度,控制服务设施和规模,再现诗意生活场景,实现可持续发展。     

滇池湖泊浮游植物变化趋势分析

就＂十一五＂期间滇池浮游植物结构、数量、季节性变化进行分析,并与＂十五＂期间情况进行比较,得出滇池浮游植物的变化趋势。     

环境监测事业发展方向探讨

通过分析,认为今后我国环境监测事业的主要发展方向将是有机污染物水质监测、农村环境监测和生态环境监测,并探讨了主要监测内容。