ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC TREND & HAZARDS OF THE CHINESE MAINLAND IN THE COMING YEARS

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略论我国水处理技术的发展趋势

水资源短缺和水环境污染有可能超过能源而成为21世纪世界上最为严重的问题，合理利用和研究新的水处理技术是解决水污染和合理利用水资源的重要途径，正确把握水处理技术的发展动向显得尤为关键。通过对我国水处理技术发展现状的回顾和当前水处理所面临问题的分析，对新世纪我国水处理技术的发展趋势进行了展望。     

饮用水水源地水质现状评价及变化趋势分析研究

以四川省南部县燕子窝饮用水水源地和五面山饮用水水源地为研究对象,采用最大评分法与分类法相结合的综合评价方法,对南部县水源地水质现状评价及变化趋势进行了分析,评价结果表明南部县县城水源地水质的综合指标都已经迭到了《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838-2002)中的Ⅱ类水标准,个别指标能达到Ⅰ类标准.利用PWQTrend软件对南部县水源地水质变化趋势进行了预测分析,分析结果表明,自2009年以来,南部县水源地水质总体得到了明显的改善,氨氮近两年的变化趋势不是很明显,总的来说,南部县燕子窝水源地以及五面山水源地的设置是科学、合理的.     

2005年-2014年安阳市城市空气质量变化趋势分析及治理对策研究

利用2005年-2014年安阳市城市空气质量自动监测数据,采用Daniel趋势校验法对空气质量变化趋势进行分析,确定主要污染物,探讨影响空气质量变化的因素,提出改善空气质量的综合治理措施.结果表明2005年-2014年安阳市空气综合污染指数为2.60,属轻度污染,首要污染物为PM10,其次为SO2,冬季污染较重,呈现尘污染与煤烟型污染特征;大气污染物存在显著的空间差异性,西北工业区污染较重;总体上,综合污染指数、SO2、PM10均呈不显著上升趋势,NO2呈现显著上升趋势.     

三峡库区干流总磷浓度变化趋势分析研究

通过分析2000年-2015年的三峡库区长江、嘉陵江、乌江干流总磷浓度数据,掌握三峡库区总磷总体水平,长江干流总磷浓度为0.135±0.043 mg/1,为Ⅲ类水质;嘉陵江总磷浓度较低,为0.075±0.033 mg/1,为Ⅱ类水质;乌江干流总磷浓度较高,约为0.403±0.288 mg/1,为V类水质.长江重庆段入境朱沱断面的总磷浓度在枯、丰水期呈显著上升趋势,出境培石断面的总磷浓度在枯、平水期呈显著上升趋势.乌江干流入境万木断面和入库锣鹰断面总磷浓度变化趋势一致,都表现为先升高后降低.从2009年开始升高,在2011年或2012年达到峰值,最大浓度超过1.0 mg/1,然后开始逐年下降,到2015年浓度下降到0.2 mg/l.     

藻类爆发危害及其控制技术研究进展

在简要介绍国内外富营养化现状的基础上,阐述了水域中藻类爆发及伴随藻毒素带来的各种危害;分别对水源水控藻除藻技术(限制营养盐控藻、直接除藻灭藻、生物技术与生态工程)和水厂水中控藻除藻技术(预氧化、混凝沉淀、膜滤、直接过滤、气浮、联合处理工艺)的国内外研究现状和应用动态进行了全面评述;指出了各种工艺技术中存在的问题。为今后实现含藻水的标本兼治及有效控藻除藻提供技术借鉴。     

海河流域水质变化与水量的关系研究

采用曼-肯德尔和森方法,对海河流域省界断面水质达标比例和主要指标的超标比例及降雨量进行分析,探讨水质的演变特征及与降雨量的关系.结果表明:近10年非汛期达标比例和全年期COD超标比例呈现显著的变化趋势.氨氮的断面超标比例较高.汛期水质达标比例与汛期降雨量存在显著负相关,汛期降雨量增加降低了水质达标比例.DO、高锰酸盐指数、BOD和氨氮的超标比例年内变化存在差异,其主要与指标自身特性、气温以及与水文循环有关.     

洞庭湖表层沉积物重金属生态风险及其变化趋势研究

尽管针对洞庭湖沉积物中重金属的研究工作较多,但是针对其生态风险及其变化趋势的研究工作比较少见。基于2012年2月和2013年4月对洞庭湖9个具有代表性监测点位的采样分析以及相关监测历史资料的收集,采用Hakanson生态危害指数法,研究了洞庭湖表层沉积物中重金属的生态风险及其变化趋势。结果表明,洞庭湖表层沉积物中Cd、Hg、As、Cu和Pb的含量分别为0.60~20.7 mg·kg-1、0.090~0.640 mg·kg-1、10.4~83.7 mg·kg-1、17.9~70.9 mg·kg-1和16.9~95.8 mg·kg-1,其大小顺序为PbCuAsCdHg。洞庭湖表层沉积物中重金属单因子生态风险程度顺序为CdHgAsPbCu,Cd和Hg为主要重金属风险污染物,其中Cd为首要污染物;全湖RI值在117.10~589.80之间,平均289.99,在空间分布上,表现为南洞庭湖区西洞庭湖区东洞庭湖区;根据Hakanson提出的分级标准,南洞庭湖区Cd具有极高的生态风险,全湖生态风险程度为中。初步分析结果表明,30年来,除Hg外,其它重金属生态风险均有一定上升,其中以Cd的上升趋势较明显,全湖重金属生态风险程度由低生态风险上升到中生态风险,提高了一个等级。因此,洞庭湖流域重金属污染治理应以湘江和资水的Cd为重点。     

Distributional dynamic and trend evolution of China’s agricultural carbon emissions – an analysis on panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011

Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy. Based on measurement of agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces over the period 2002–2011, the study observed regional differences and the dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon emissions using agricultural carbon intensity as the indicator, accompanied by Gini coefficients and the kernel density estimation method. The results demonstrate first that agricultural carbon emissions for China show an obvious nonequilibrium nature in regard to spatial distribution. According to the differences in agricultural carbon emissions dynamic trends, we divided the 31 regions into four types – continuous decline, fluctuating decline, continuous increase, and fluctuating increase. Further, agricultural carbon emissions intensity showed a downward trend with significant differences in the research areas. Second, the gap in spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon emissions is gradually expanding based on the results calculated by Gini coefficient. From the perception of regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions, the eastern region showed an average level, the gap was more obvious in the central region, while western region showed a trend of fluctuating downward. Third, according to estimation by kernel density, the regional disparity in agricultural carbon emissions had a downward, but limited, trend. In regard to agricultural carbon emissions over the three areas, the regional gap not only tended to decrease but also showed a “four way” differentiation phenomenon in the eastern region. The difference in the central region difference was narrower. On the whole, the gap for the western region reduced steadily over a small range.     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.