储罐底板维修决策方法研究

储罐底板腐蚀是储罐失效的主要原因之一,对底板的腐蚀检测方法目前有很多种。每种方法都有自己的优势,但同时也存在着相应的弊端。通过在实践应用中对比漏磁检测与超声测厚检测方法,分别指出两种检测方法的优势与实践应用中存在的问题,提出应综合应用两种方法来提高效率和确保准确性。为更好地利用检测技术保障储罐安全提出参考建议。     

图像识别技术及其在机械零件无损检测中的应用

无损检测法是一种常用的故障诊断技术,故障诊断从本质上来讲就是模式识别问题,而模式识别又可以狭义地理解为图像识别。从介绍图像、图像识别、图像识别过程和图像识别系统的基本概念着手,就几种常用图像识别方法的原理和特点进行比较,给出了CCD图像获取系统的组成。最后,结合发动机曲轴的一种自动磁粉探伤系统实例,对系统的图像处理和识别流程进行详细的讨论,并针对一般无损检测系统难以满足曲轴的检测要求和精度要求的状况,提出经过改进的一种适用于曲轴的整体无损检测系统。该系统有助于高效和完整地获取整个曲轴的图像,提高图像信息的质量,从而提高发动机曲轴表面缺陷检测的准确性和可靠性。     

基于特征提取的输油管道泄漏系数预测*

为准确预测管道泄漏系数,估计管道泄漏量,以基于瞬变流方法的模拟数据为例,建立多个管道泄漏系数预测模型(多层感知机、长短期记忆网络、随机森林、支持向量机以及K近邻回归),综合考虑管道流量和压力数据特点,提出序列提取法和均值提取法2种管道时序数据预处理方法,模型评价指标为相关系数（R2）和平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）。研究结果表明:随机森林和多层感知机的抗噪性较强,在5%的噪声影响下,模型准确度下降幅度较小;均值提取法去噪功能较好,可在一定程度上降低噪声影响;基于均值提取法的多层感知机模型效果相对较好,R2为0.997 5,MAPE为1.599%,研究结果可为准确预测管道泄漏系数、估计泄漏量提供指导。     

基于扩展分形特征的图像型火灾检测

针对火灾检测中存在的不稳定及误判率高的问题,提出一种基于扩展分形特征的图像型火灾检测算法。首先在图像的HSI颜色空间进行火焰疑似区域的分割,然后采用文中提出的扩展分形特征计算方法计算图像扩展分形特征,利用该特征对目标事物对比度和大小尺寸敏感的特性,对火焰区域进行再次分割,得到最后的火焰区域。实验结果表明,该算法运行效率较高、误报率较低,适用于多种场合的火灾检测。     

基于视频图像的交通枢纽综合体人体检测

针对交通枢纽综合体人体检测的问题,提出一种基于梯度方向直方图(HOG)人体模型特征的检测算法。该方法通过提取人体样本库的HOG特征,用支持向量机算法(SVM)对样本的HOG特征进行分类训练。为了提高算法的精确度和适用性,以南京南站的监控视频为依据建立交通枢纽综合体人体样本库。并以南京南站监控视频和校园拍摄的人员视频作为测试集。结果证明,本算法可以有效识别交通枢纽综合体各种特征人体。     

DATA ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES IN LAKE ERIE1

ABSTRACT: A comprehensive data analysis study is carried out for detecting trends and other statistical characteristics in water quality time series measured in Long Point Bay, Lake Erie. In order to glean an optimal amount of useful information from the available data, the exploratory and confirmatory data anslysis stages are adhered to. To test a range of hypotheses regarding the statistical properties of the time series, a wide variety of both parametric and nonparametric techniques are employed. A particularly useful nonparametric method for discovering trends is the seasonal Mann-Kendall test.     

Method for identifying errors in chemical process development and design base on accidents knowledge

It has been claimed that the high accident rate in the chemical process industry is due to poor dissemination of accident knowledge that affects directly the level of learning from accidents. In response to this situation, this paper utilized past accident knowledge as a basis to develop a safety oriented design tool whereby the accident information were directly disseminated into plant design. The method was developed based on our previous accident analysis of design error in which the common design errors were ranked in accordance to their frequency and its origins during normal plant design project. Based on the design error ranking and its origin at a specific design phases, a method for design error detection is proposed. The method is expected to be able to identify the possible design error and its causes throughout chemical process development and design. The main objective is to trigger safe design thinking at the specific design phases so that appropriate action for risk reduction could be timely implemented. The Bhopal and BP Texas tragedies are used as case studies to test and verify the method. The proposed method can detect up to 74% of design errors.     

Mechanistic understanding of human–wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models

Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human–wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently <1.0 and was negatively influenced by distance to roads and elevation gradient, averaging 0.08–0.56 across primary periods (distinct agricultural seasons within each year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for rigorous prediction of future conflicts, a critical requirement for effective conflict management in the context of increasing human–wildlife interactions.     

Use of opportunistic sightings and expert knowledge to predict and compare Whooping Crane stopover habitat

Predicting a species’ distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2?3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert‐informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence‐only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.     

Spatially Explicit Power Analyses for Occupancy‐Based Monitoring of Wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy‐based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy‐based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per‐visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species. Poder de Análisis Espacialmente Explícito para el Monitoreo Basado en Ocupación del Glotón (Gulo gulo) en las Montañas Rocallosas de Estados Unidos