考虑救援时效的化工园区应急物资储备站点选址模型研究

针对化工园区的应急物资储备站点选址问题,在同时考虑经济因素以及救援效果的基础上,建立了多目标覆盖选址模型,同时引入了应急救援时效函数,以反映物资运输时间对救援效果的影响.最后将模型应用于江苏省南部的化工园区应急物资储存站点的选址问题进行算例分析,使用NSGA-II算法对模型进行求解,并采用TODIM法对得到的帕累托最优...     

Probabilistic Modelling of Cattle Farm Distribution in Australia

A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure, drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different classes according to its suitability for farming.

功能区噪声自动监测点位布设探讨

分析了各类功能区噪声的特点,提出自动监测点位布设的基本原则。对传声器水平距离和垂直高度的确定做了相关比对实验,结果表明,传声器水平距离选择距反射面不小于3 m,垂直高度为4～5m时,能较好地反映该功能区受环境噪声影响状况。     

不同回流位置对潜流人工湿地氮分布及去除效果的影响

通过脱氮实验比较了不同回流位置（进水口、前部、中部、后部）对潜流人工湿地的氮浓度空间分布状况和氮去除效果的影响。结果表明：4种回流与未回流处理相互之间的氨氮（NH4＋-N）空间分布无明显差异,而回流位置越靠近进水口,湿地中总氮（TN）分布浓度越低。将湿地出水按1/3的回流比回流到湿地进水口,对NH4＋-N去除率的影响差...     

Sensitivity analysis for models of greenhouse gas emissions at farm level. Case study of N(2)O emissions simulated by the CERES-EGC model

Modelling complex systems such as farms often requires quantification of a large number of input factors. Sensitivity analyses are useful to reduce the number of input factors that are required to be measured or estimated accurately. Three methods of sensitivity analysis (the Morris method, the rank regression and correlation method and the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method) were compared in the case of the CERES-EGC model applied to crops of a dairy farm. The qualitative Morris method provided a screening of the input factors. The two other quantitative methods were used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of input factors on output variables. Despite differences in terms of concepts and assumptions, the three methods provided similar results. Among the 44 factors under study, N₂O emissions were mainly sensitive to the fraction of N₂O emitted during denitrification, the maximum rate of nitrification, the soil bulk density and the cropland area.     

玛纳斯县新湖农场植物治沙效益评估

利用新湖农场1998—2007年气象、社会、经济资料及实测植被、土壤数据,分析了近10年来防沙治沙情况,并选取定量、定性指标,建立效益评估模型,对植物治沙产生效益进行评估。结果表明：植被覆盖率由1990年1．63％提高到2007年5．37％,植物种类、土壤碱解N、速效P随栽植年限增加而上升,沙化面积比例由1990年的2．90％减少到2006年的0．59％,风沙天气由1998年的27次减少到2007年的4次;农场土地利用结构得到优化,人均林草面积由1990年人均0．02hm2增加到2006年0．15hm2。     

Children's behavioral traits and risk of injury: Analyses from a case-control study of agricultural households

Problem

Children on family agricultural operations have high risk of injury. The association between children's behavioral traits and their risk of injury is not well understood.

Method

Data from the Regional Rural Injury Study-II were used to assess behavioral risk factors for injury to children ages six to < 20 years. A total of 379 injury events (cases) and 1,562 randomly selected controls were identified. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), calculated using logistic regression, were used to estimate injury risk in reference to behavioral traits.

Results

Injury risks were greater for children with high levels of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.9, CI = 1.0-3.7) and aggression (OR = 1.6, CI = 0.9-2.7), and low levels of careful/cautious behavior (OR = 1.8, CI = 1.1-2.9). Children with low levels of self-regulation had reduced risks (OR = 0.4, CI = 0.2-0.8).

Discussion

Results suggest that children's behaviors affect their risk of agricultural injury. Additional research could elucidate mechanisms and inform interventions.

Impact on industry

The development of multifaceted, sustainable approaches for prevention is necessary for this unique population. These findings suggest a need for interventions that incorporate specific behavior-related risk factors in the context of family farms and ranches.     

Conversion of specialised dairy farming systems into sustainable mixed farming systems in Cuba

From the 1960s onwards, a ‘High External Input’ dairy production model was applied widely in Cuba. Overall milk production of the national herd increased considerably, but the system was inefficient from both a financial and energetic point of view. In the early 1990s, after the abrupt end of inflow of capital and other resources from Eastern Europe, the dairy sector collapsed. In the short term, the modern infrastructure of milk production deteriorated and the sector experienced profound vulnerability. However, in the longer term, this situation stimulated a search for more sustainable approaches, such as low external input Mixed Farming Systems (MFS). The current study aimed to evaluate two small scale prototype farms to assess the implications of converting ‘Low External Input’ Dairy Farming Systems into MFS. Fifteen agro-ecological and financial indicators were selected and monitored over a 6-year period. Two configurations of MFS, i.e. the proportion of the farm area occupied by arable crops, were tested: 25 and 50%. Productivity, energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness all improved following conversion. Total energy input was low for both farms and decreased over time, whereas energy efficiency was high and increased over time. Human labour input was high directly following conversion, but decreased by one-third over the 6-year period. This study demonstrates, at an experimental scale, the potential of MFS to achieve ecological, productivity and financial advantages for dairy production in Cuba. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Cumulative impact of GM herbicide-tolerant cropping on arable plants assessed through species-based and functional taxonomies

Background, aim and scope

In a gradualist approach to the introduction of crop biotechnology, the findings of experimentation at one scale are used to predict the outcome of moving to a higher scale of deployment. Movement through scales had occurred for certain genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops in the UK as far as large-scale field trials. However, the land area occupied by these trials was still <1% of the area occupied by the respective non-GM crops. Some means is needed to predict the direction and size of the effect of increasing the area of GMHT cropping on ecological variables such as the diversity among species and trophic interactions. Species-accumulation curves are examined here as a method of indicating regional-scale impacts on botanical diversity from multiple field experiments.

Materials and methods

Data were used from experiments on the effect of (GMHT) crops and non-GM, or conventional, comparators in fields sown with four crop types (beet, maize, spring and winter oilseed rape) at a total of 250 sites in the UK between 2000 and 2003. Indices of biodiversity were measured in a split-field design comparing GMHT with the farmers’ usual weed management. In the original analyses based on the means at site level, effects were detected on the mass of weeds in the three spring crops and the proportion of broadleaf and grass weeds in winter oilseed rape, but not on indices of plant species diversity. To explore the links between site means and total taxa, accumulation curves were constructed based on the number of plant species (a pool of around 250 species in total) and the number of plant functional types (24), inferred from the general life-history characteristics of a species.

Results

Species accumulation differed between GMHT and conventional treatments in direction and size, depending on the type of crop and its conventional management. Differences were mostly in the asymptote of the curve, indicative of the maximum number of species found in a treatment, rather than the steepness of the curve. In winter oilseed rape, 8% more species were accumulated in the GMHT treatment, mainly as a result of the encouragement of grass species by the herbicide when applied in the autumn. (Overall, GMHT winter oilseed rape had strong negative effects on both the food web and the potential weed burden by increasing the biomass of grasses and decreasing that of broadleaf weeds.) In maize, 33% more species—a substantial increase—were accumulated in the GMHT than in the conventional, consistent with the latter’s highly suppressive weed management using triazine herbicides. In the spring oilseed rape and beet, fewer species (around 10%) were accumulated in the GMHT than the conventional. The GMHT treatments did not remove or add any functional (life history) types, however. Differences in species accumulation between treatments appeared to be caused by loss or gain of rarer species. The generality of this effect was confirmed by simulations of species accumulation in which the species complement at each of 50 sites was drawn from a regional pool and subjected to reducing treatment at each site. Shifts in the species-accumulation parameters, comparable to those measured, occurred only when a treatment removed the rarer species at each site.

Discussion

Species accumulation provided a set of simple curve-parameters that captured the net result of numerous local effects of treatments on plant species and, in some instances, the balance between grass and broadleaf types. The direction of effect was not the same in the four crops and depended on the severity of the conventional treatment and on complex interactions between season, herbicide and crop. The accumulation curves gave an indication of potential positive or negative consequences for regional species pools of replacing a conventional practice with GMHT weed management. In this and related studies, a range of indicators, through which diversity was assessed by both species and functional type, and at both site and regional scales, gave more insight into effects of GMHT treatment than provided by any one indicator.

Conclusions

Species accumulation was shown to discriminate at the regional scale between agronomic treatments that had little effect on species number at the field scale. While a comprehensive assessment of GM cropping needs to include an examination of regional effects, as here, the costs of doing this in all instances would be prohibitive. Simulations of diversity-reducing treatments could provide a theoretical framework for predicting the likely regional effects from in-field plant dynamics.

Recommendations and perspectives

Accumulation curves potentially offer a means of linking within-site effects to regional impacts on biodiversity resulting from any change in agricultural practice. To guide empirical measurement, there is a scope to apply a methodology such as individual-based modelling at the field scale to explore the links between agronomic treatments and the relative abundance of plant types. The framework needs to be validated in practice, using species-based and functional taxonomies, the latter defined by measured rather than inferred traits.