长江三角洲港口群的功能定位探析

根据国际海洋运输船舶大型化和集装箱化的趋势，为积极应对来自亚太地区各港口的挑战，总结和分析了长江三角洲地区港口群的发展现状，即各港口都取得了较大的发展，特别是宁波和上海两港口的集装箱吞吐量增长很快。但是，上海港的发展受制于航道水深水足和缺乏深水大港，南京以下各港中存在因重复建设而导致岸线浪费和恶性竞争的问题，宁波港的主要制约在于箱源腹地有限和陆上集疏运条件亟待完善。同时，还提出了各自的解决对策。为应对我国加入WTO后国际航运面临的严峻挑战和尽快实施国家战略，该地区应当形成代表国家参与国际航运竞争的以上海为中心、苏南和浙北为两翼的组合港式国际航运中心。其中，形成合理竞争与协调分工的长江三角洲港口群则是当务之急。鉴于此，各港口的功能定位可以是，上海港要尽快建成国际级的集装箱枢纽港，长江沿岸港口（南京以下各港口）要逐步形成协同发展的内支线港和喂给港，宁波、舟山等港口要建设成为上海港的中转港和深水外港。     

Measuring determinants of occupational health related behavior in Flemish farmers: an application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

PROBLEM: Preventive interventions to reduce occupational injuries and health problems in farmers require the identification of factors that contribute to unsafe and health damaging behavior. This paper describes the development and validation of a self-report questionnaire, which measures the determinants of occupational health-related behaviors in farmers. METHOD: A representative sample of 283 Flemish farmers completed a provisional 135 item questionnaire based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, measuring four behaviors related to occupational health (machinery use, animal handling, preventing falls, and pesticide use), as well as the intentions, attitudes, perceived social norms, and self-efficacy for each of these behaviors. RESULTS: The fit indices of the Confirmatory Factor Analysis turned out not to be sufficient to reproduce the dimensions of the TPB. Therefore exploratory factor analysis was use to determine the underlying dimensions. Principal Component Analyses (PCA) on the behavioral items yielded single component solutions explaining a considerable proportion of the variance for each behavior and for behavioral intentions. Principal component analyses toward an a priori three-component structure reflecting the TPB dimensions did not produce sufficient congruence for the determinants of the four behaviors. Subsequent Varimax rotations and discarding of redundant items resulted in three component solutions explaining 50% to 69% of the variance in the determinants of each behavior, corresponding with the dimensions of the TPB. Internal consistencies ranged from .25 to .89. Scale scores accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in intention and self-reported behavior. IMPACT: The study demonstrates the validity of the TPB in predicting behavior related to occupational safety and health in farmers, and provides a valid and reliable questionnaire to measure the cognitive concepts featured in this model. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Both authors share the same view on this study's impact on industry. In recent years, efforts have been made to create awareness among farmers about occupational hazards, and to encourage farmers to perform safer and healthier behavior. However, only a limited number of these interventions have proven to be successful. A possible reason for this relative lack of success is that interventions typically focus on risk analysis and raising awareness, whereas the literature on preventive health behavior change indicates that knowledge and awareness with regard to possible health risks are neither necessary nor sufficient to change behavior. To raise the effectiveness of prevention programs, other relevant determinants of behavior need to be addressed as well, such as: attitudes, perceived social norms, self efficacy, and elements of the physical environment that elicit or reinforce behavior. These determinants play a key role in psychological models of health related behavior, such as the Theory of Planned Behavior. Thus far, the use of these models within agricultural settings is fairly limited. This study demonstrates the validity of the Theory of Planned Behavior in predicting behavior related to occupational safety and health in farmers, and provides a valid and reliable questionnaire to measure the cognitive concepts featured in this model.     

关于我国首都迁址的再探讨

北京作为中国首都已经出现了许多不相适应的弊端,困扰着首都功能的正常发挥,而且这些问题呈进一步恶化的趋势。无论改都论、双都论还是展都论,都不能从根本上解决北京日趋集中的问题。从北京存在的一系列问题入手,指出了迁都的必要性;然后从迁都的历史可行性、经验可行性、经济可行性和操作可行性4个方面论证了迁都的可行性;运用定量与定性相结合的方法,构建理想首都区位模型,对迁都方位进行了选择。认为长江中游地区是建立新都的最理想方位,并从首都安全、定都成本和区位影响角度,分析了长江中游地区建设中国新都的不可替代的优势,最后还探讨了模型的计算尺度问题和迁都应注意的问题。     

城市应急避难场所层次布局研究(Ⅱ)——三级层次选址模型

分析应急避难场所层次选址的目标因素:建设成本和避难效果,提出总的移动距离最短和建设成本最小两类选址目标,立足城市发展程度差异和现状应急避难场所建设情况分析,将应急避难场所选址类型分为规划性选址、老城新选址、补充性选址三种。依据应急避难场所的三级层次划分,以及单一流、嵌套、空间非匹配的层次特点,分别建立了应急避难场所的规划性选址、老城新选址、补充性选址共8个三级层次选址模型,并通过模拟实验对模型的效果进行了检验。     

基于GIS的城市重大危险源选址研究

近年来,城市重大危险源的安全问题日益突出,对城市的健康安全发展构成了极大威胁,因此,如何进行城市重大危险源选址成为现代社会研究的重要内容。利用GIS空间分析技术,对影响重大危险源选址布局的空间信息进行处理,将道路图、土地利用规划图、城市遥感影像、城市基础设施等与城市区划图相结合,以获取适宜选址的可行域。利用模糊综合评价理论,选出影响选址的因素集和评语集,通过模糊运算评判可行域,并由实例验证了该选址方法,最终得出城市重大危险源最优选址方案。因此,进行城市重大危险源的选址研究具有现实可行的意义,有助于提高城市的整体安全水平。     

基于虚拟力的危化品仓储堆垛定位校正算法

超宽带定位技术作为一种室内高精度定位技术是解决危化品仓库堆垛贮存状态安全监测的有效方法,但在仓库非视距环境中,存在定位精度不足的问题,无法满足堆垛“五距”安全的监管要求。针对此问题,从UWB信号的信道模型和定位精度影响因素出发,利用高斯滤波消除了参考点在定位过程中由于系统和环境带来的随机误差影响,建立了参考点误差矢量库,并提出了一种虚拟力校正算法,利用建立的矢量库来对待测标签进行矢量补偿,达到提高定位精度的目的。实验表明,该方法可以提高危化品仓储堆垛定位精度,适用于监测危化品仓储状态。     

火源长宽比对隧道内矩形火燃烧特性的影响研究

开展了一系列小尺寸实验研究隧道内不同火源受限情况下的火焰形态和顶棚射流火焰长度。实验中采用四个长宽比范围1~8的矩形气体燃烧器作为火源,并通过改变火源的摆放位置和贴壁方向(长边贴壁和短边贴壁)来改变火源的受限程度。结果表明:当火源置于开放空间非受限场景时,随着火源长宽比的增大,火源卷吸空气周长增大,导致火焰高度不断减小。对于贴壁火当矩形火源的长边贴壁时,随着长宽比的增大,其火焰高度同样不断减小;由于卷吸不对称,火焰贴着墙壁向上方蔓延,其火焰高度明显高于开放空间条件下的值。当火源短边贴壁时,火焰高度虽然仍随长宽比的增大而减小,但其火焰高度与开放空间相近,明显小于长边贴壁的情况,说明此时空气卷吸受限程度不大,火焰蔓延没有受到墙壁明显的影响。在前人对轴对称火源(方形和圆形火源)研究的基础上,本文对矩形火源位于隧道纵向中心线和紧贴隧道侧壁的火焰形态和火源长度进行了实验研究,定义了一个修正的无量纲火源功率?Q *mod,并引入了考虑矩形火源长宽比的无量纲特征参量(n+1)/n,建立了综合考虑火源功率、火源尺寸和贴壁方向的矩形贴壁火的火焰长度关系式。     

机械排烟系统优化设计数值模拟研究

本文以一超市建筑为例,运用火灾模拟软件FDS对排烟口位置、排烟口数量、排烟量、排烟口面积等对机械排烟效果的影响进行了研究。研究表明顶棚排烟优于侧壁排烟;排烟口应尽量远离疏散出口;排烟量达到一定数值之后,再增加排烟量,对排烟效果影响不大;增加排烟口数量,并合理分布其位置,可以得到良好的排烟效果。     

Assessing local knowledge use in agroforestry management with cognitive maps

Small-holder farmers often develop adaptable agroforestry management techniques to improve and diversify crop production. In the cocoa growing region of Ghana, local knowledge on such farm management holds a noteworthy role in the overall farm development. The documentation and analysis of such knowledge use in cocoa agroforests may afford an applicable framework to determine mechanisms driving farmer preference and indicators in farm management. This study employed 12 in-depth farmer interviews regarding variables in farm management as a unit of analysis and utilized cognitive mapping as a qualitative method of analysis. Our objectives were (1) to illustrate and describe agroforestry management variables and associated farm practices, (2) to determine the scope of decision making of individual farmers, and (3) to investigate the suitability of cognitive mapping as a tool for assessing local knowledge use. Results from the cognitive maps revealed an average of 16 ± 3 variables and 19 ± 3 links between management variables in the farmer cognitive maps. Farmer use of advantageous ecological processes was highly central to farm management (48% of all variables), particularly manipulation of organic matter, shade and food crop establishment, and maintenance of a tree stratum as the most common, highly linked variables. Over 85% of variables included bidirectional arrows, interpreted as farm management practices dominated by controllable factors, insofar as farmers indicated an ability to alter most farm characteristics. Local knowledge use on cocoa production revealed detailed indicators for site evaluation, thus affecting farm preparation and management. Our findings suggest that amid multisourced information under conditions of uncertainty, strategies for adaptable agroforestry management should integrate existing and localized management frameworks and that cognitive mapping provides a tool-based approach to advance such a management support system.     

Volatile attractants for three Pteromalid parasitoids attacking concealed spruce bark beetles

Summary. The odour perceptive abilities, and preferences, of three bark beetle parasitoid species; Rhopalicus tutela (Walker), Roptrocerus mirus (Walker), and Roptrocerus xylophagorum (Ratzeburg) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae), were investigated to isolate and identify the essential compounds involved in host location. These parasitoids attack several economically important bark beetle species and oviposit preferentially on late larval stages concealed under the bark of conifers. Odours were collected from Norway spruce logs (Picea abies L. Karst.) containing Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) larvae. Biologically active compounds were isolated by coupled gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD), and identified by GC-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Based on these analyses, four different synthetic baits were prepared and tested in a Y-tube walking bioassay. In the complex odour samples from spruce logs, only 16 compounds were EAD-active. The tested R. tutela and R. mirus females displayed similar trends in antennal activity to EAD-active compounds, responding mainly to oxygenated monoterpenes that indicate damaged conifers. Consequently, the synthetic baits were exclusively prepared with oxygenated monoterpenes. Parasitoid females (R. tutela and R. mirus) preferred spruce logs containing susceptible hosts over fresh logs, while male parasitoids (R. mirus) did not show any preference. However, when odours from fresh logs were mixed with synthetic baits (mimicking the odour composition of logs containing susceptible hosts), these combinations attracted female parasitoids (R. tutela, R. mirus, and R. xylophagorum). All synthetic baits seemed to be equally attractive to female parasitoids. Received 12 October 2000; accepted 18 January 2001