单列余模的性质探讨

单列模是一种结构非常有趣的模类,它的子模构成一条链,单列余模作为单列模的对偶也具有类似的特殊结构.文中主要把单列模的相关性质推广到了单列余模上.     

小型城市污水排放量预测模型研究——以楚雄市为例

针对小城市污水排放量历史数据较少,城市发展变化较大的特点,以楚雄市为例,提出了基于污水排放来源以及生成机理的预测方法。根据历史人口增长趋势以及城镇化率进行城区人口综合预测,运用定额法根据不同行业用水特点预测城市用水量,结合城市污水排放特点对楚雄市近期以及远期城市污水排放量进行科学合理的预测,并对预测结果进行了分析,可为城市发展规划提供决策参考。     

Employing the shared socioeconomic pathways to predict CO2 emissions

Predicting CO₂ emissions is of significant interest to policymakers and scholars alike. The following article contributes to earlier work by using the recently released “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSPs) to empirically model CO₂ emissions in the future. To this end, I employ in-sample and out-of-sample techniques to assess the prediction accuracy of the underlying model, before forecasting countries’ emission rates until 2100. This article makes three central contributions to the literature. First, as one of the first studies, I improve upon the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by incorporating the SSPs, which did not exist when the RCPs have been released. Second, I calculate predictions and forecasts for a global sample in 1960–2100, which circumvents issues of limited time periods and sample selection bias in previous research. Third, I thoroughly assess the prediction accuracy of the model, which contributes to providing a guideline for prediction exercises in general using in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. This research presents findings that crucially inform scholars and policymakers, especially in light of the prominent 2 °C goal: none of the five SSP scenarios is likely to be linked to emission patterns that would suggest achieving the 2 °C goal is realistic.     

Predicting intertidal organism temperatures with modified land surface models

Animals and plants in the marine intertidal zone live at the interface between terrestrial and marine environments. This zone is likely to be a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate change in coastal ecosystems, because of several key characteristics including steep environmental gradients, rapid temperature changes during tide transitions, fierce competition for limited space, and a community of mostly sessile organisms. Here we describe a modular modeling approach using modifications to a meteorological land surface model to determine body temperatures of the ecologically dominant rocky intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus, as a tool that can be used as a proxy for ecological performance. We validate model results against in situ measurements made with biomimetic body temperature sensors. Model predictions lie within the range of variability of biomimetic measurements, based on observations over a 4-year period at sites along 1700 km of the US west coast from southern California (34.5°N) to northern Washington (48.4°N). Our modular approach can be easily applied to many situations in the intertidal zone, including bare rock, mussel, barnacle, and algal beds, salt-marsh grasses, and sand- and mud-flats, by modifying the “vegetation layer” in a standard meteorological land surface model. Biophysical models such as these, which link ecological processes to changing climates through predictions of body temperature, are essential for understanding biogeographic patterns of physiological stress and mortality risk.     

脉冲激光发射模块电磁屏蔽效能仿真分析

目的 提高脉冲激光发射模块的电磁兼容性。方法 基于腔体的电磁屏蔽机理,使用HFSS软件,建立脉冲激光发射模块腔体模型,以电磁敏感度、电磁干扰2个方面对腔体电磁屏蔽效能进行仿真分析。结果 设计的双层屏蔽腔体在电磁波辐照频率为1~100 kHz时,屏蔽效能达到28 dB;电磁波辐照频率为0.2~18 GHz时,屏蔽效能达到47 dB。结论 当电磁波辐照频率在1~100 kHz时,腔体的屏蔽效能随频率的增加而增大。辐射源外部激励时,双层屏蔽腔体使用外层铁内层铜屏蔽效能较高。电磁波辐照频率在0.2～18 GHz时,腔体的屏蔽效能随频率的增大而减小,且发生了谐振效应。当腔体厚度相等时,双层屏蔽的屏蔽效能高于单层屏蔽。使用电缆连接器代替孔洞进行信号传输时,腔体屏蔽效能增加。     

Water quality management worldwide

This article analyzes water quality on a global scale. An overview of the global water supply and demand situation is presented first, including regional and country information, as well as data on selected water use patterns. The focus then shifts to a discussion of water pollution, its various causes, impact, and remedies, with emphasis on legal and administrative solutions. Water pollution control expenditures and the resultant achievements are dealt with in the final third of the article, with projections to 1995. A wide variety of published sources was dovetailed to obtain a composite picture and most likely scenario; this was supplemented with primary interviews by the author conducted in North America, Western and Eastern Europe, and Oceania at the start of the 1980s.     

天津市城区暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统的研究

天津市位于黄河水系尾闾，是我国北方重要的工业和港口城市。该市历史上一直遭受洪涝灾害的威胁，加之近几年市区范围不断扩大，不透水面积增加，排水能力远远不能适应城市的发展要求，城市沥涝问题日趋严重。为了掌握天津市暴雨沥涝的规律，减轻洪涝灾害对该市的影响，作者利用二维不恒定流水动力学模型和计算机信息管理及图形技术，采用Power Station Fortran 4.0和Visual Basic5.0编程语言，在Widows98环境下开发了天津市暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统。该系统首次实现了从城市暴雨预报、监测到城市暴雨沥涝仿真模拟的研究， 不仅能够处理实时的不均匀的降雨信息，还能处理数值预报模型的预报降雨信息。系统的信息前后处理模块用图形方式管理仿真模型的各类信息，方便用户显示、查询和修改，使系统更加完整、实用。     

东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法

GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均预测精度虽低于逐步回归统计模型,但也都达91%以上,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。     

森林雷击火的预报监测

本文介绍对森林雷击火预测的研究及其监测技术的进展与应用，以期作为大兴安岭雷电监测网全面开通后监测预报研究工作的新起点     

Fouling distribution in forward osmosis membrane process

Fouling behavior along the length of membrane module was systematically investigated by performing simple modeling and lab-scale experiments of forward osmosis （FO） membrane process. The flux distribution model developed in this study showed a good agreement with experimental results, validating the robustness of the model. This model demonstrated, as expected, that the permeate flux decreased along the membrane channel due to decreasing osmotic pressure differential across the FO membrane. A series of fouling experiments were conducted under the draw and feed solutions at various recoveries simulated by the model. The simulated fouling experiments revealed that higher organic （alginate） fouling and thus more flux decline were observed at the last section of a membrane channel, as foulants in feed solution became more concentrated. Furthermore, the water flux in FO process declined more severely as the recovery increased due to more foulants transported to membrane surface with elevated solute concentrations at higher recovery, which created favorable solution environments for organic adsorption. The fouling reversibility also decreased at the last section of the membrane channel, suggesting that fouling distribution on FO membrane along the module should be carefully examined to improve overall cleaning efficiency. Lastly, it was found that such fouling distribution observed with co-current flow operation became less pronounced in counter- current flow operation of FO membrane process.