A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.     

A novel chemical product design framework with the integration of safety and health aspects

Computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) technique is a powerful tool for the design of molecules that meet a set of desirable properties. In most of the CAMD problems, the molecular physical and thermodynamic properties are often selected as the target properties, while safety and health aspects were not taken into consideration. However, certain chemical substances may cause adverse effects to human's health after prolonged and repeated exposure. Therefore, in order to ensure that the generated molecule does not bring harm and health-related risks to the consumers, it is crucial to incorporate both inherent safety and health into the existing CAMD techniques. In this work, a novel chemical product design methodology has been developed to integrate both safety and health aspects into the CAMD framework presented by a single optimisation model. The measurement of safety and health indicators are based on the molecular properties that have impact on both of these aspects. Each property is assigned with an index or penalty value based on the degree of potential hazards. A molecule with a higher index value has a higher hazard level and vice versa. Hence, a molecule that satisfies the target properties and has a low penalty value will be selected as the most reasonable choice. This new approach ensures that a product that possesses the desirable properties, and at the same time meets the safety and health criteria, is produced. A case study on the solvent design for gas sweetening process has been carried out to determine the optimal molecule.     

灾害损失定量评估的模糊综合评判方法

讨论了灾害损失的构成要素以及灾害损失定量评估的指标体系；依据灾害失评估指标体系的一般形式，给出了由灾害损失单一因子计算灾级的公式；基于笔者提出的模糊灾度概念，给出了可用于各类灾害损失的等级划分的模糊综合评判方法。     

运用模糊数学法对焚烧烟气处理方法进行综合评价

运用模糊数学法的理论对城市生活垃圾及特种垃圾焚烧烟气的各种处理方法进行综合评价,提出合理的处理方法。     

基于层次分析法的生态示范区建设成效模糊综合评价

将层次模糊综合评价模型应用于生态示范区指标体系，采用专家调查法构造判断矩阵，确定了指标权重，并对生态示范区建设指标体系进行分级，评价了长沙市天心区生态示范区建设的成效。结果表明，应用层次模糊综合评价模型对生态示范区建设成效进行定量评价是切实可行的。长沙市天心区自开展生态示范区建设以来，在社会、经济和生态环境领域都取得了明显进步。     

IFRP: a hybrid interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming approach for waste management planning under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter fuzzy-robust programming (IFRP) model is developed and applied to the planning of solid waste management systems under uncertainty. As an extension of the existing fuzzy-robust programming and interval-parameter linear programming methods, the IFRP can explicitly address system uncertainties with complex presentations. Parameters in the IFRP model can be represented as interval numbers and/or fuzzy membership functions, such that the uncertainties can be directly communicated into the optimization process and resulting solution. Furthermore, highly uncertain information for the lower and upper bounds of interval parameters that exist due to the complexity of the real world can be effectively handled through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. Results of the case study indicate that useful solutions for planning municipal solid waste management practices can be generated. They reflect a compromise between optimality and stability of the study system. Willingness to pay higher costs will guarantee the system stability; however, a desire to reduce the costs will run the risk of potential instability of the system. The results also suggest that the proposed hybrid methodology is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.     

A hybrid design methodology for structuring an Integrated Environmental Management System (IEMS) for shipping business

The International Safety Management (ISM) Code defines a broad framework for the safe management and operation of merchant ships, maintaining high standards of safety and environmental protection. On the other hand, ISO 14001:2004 provides a generic, worldwide environmental management standard that has been utilized by several industries. Both the ISM Code and ISO 14001:2004 have the practical goal of establishing a sustainable Integrated Environmental Management System (IEMS) for shipping businesses. This paper presents a hybrid design methodology that shows how requirements from both standards can be combined into a single execution scheme. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Axiomatic Design (FAD) are used to structure an IEMS for ship management companies. This research provides decision aid to maritime executives in order to enhance the environmental performance in the shipping industry.     

Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas

Commonly used methods of evaluating the degree of consistency of protected area ecosystems with social and ecological carrying capacities are likely to result in decision errors. This occurs because such methods do not account for imprecision and uncertainty in inferring the degree of ecosystem consistency from an observed ecosystem indicator. This paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive management approach to determine whether a protected area ecosystem is consistent with ecological and social carrying capacities and, if not, to identify management actions that are most likely to achieve consistency when there is uncertainty about the current degree of consistency and how alternative management actions are likely to influence that consistency. The proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example that uses an ecosystem indicator that reflects combinations of different levels of user satisfaction and conservation of threatened and endangered species. Application of the proposed fuzzy adaptive management approach requires a protected area manager to: (1) identify alternative management actions for achieving ecosystem consistency with social and ecological carrying capacities in each of several management zones in a protected area; (2) randomly assign alternative management actions to management zones; (3) define fuzzy sets for the ecosystem indicator and degree of ecosystem consistency, and fuzzy relations between the ecosystem indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency; (4) monitor the indicator in each management zone; (5) define fuzzy sets based on the observed indicator in each management zone; and (6) combine the fuzzy sets defined on the observed indicator and the fuzzy relations between the indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency to reach conclusions about the most likely degree of consistency for alternative management actions in each management zone. The fuzzy adaptive management approach proposed here is advantageous when the benefits of avoiding the decision errors inherent with crisp and stochastic decision rules outweigh the added cost of implementing the approach.     

Soil arthropods (Coleoptera,Isopoda) in organic and conventional agroecosystems

The relationship between two soil arthropod communities (Coleoptera and Isopoda) in organic and conventional fields was investigated. Soil arthropods were sampled by pitfall traps, and fuzzy set theory and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used for their classification. The study was conducted in: (1) two organic and two conventional vineyards, (2) two organic and two conventional olive groves, and (3) one organic rotation system that involved maize and one conventional maize field. The species composition (three main fuzzy groups) was affected by the crop species and not by the farming system. The CCA placed the rare and unique taxa of soil arthropods at the edges of the diagram and grouped most of them together in relation to soil organic matter and Ca. The same analysis grouped all olive groves and related them to soil organic matter, all vineyards and related them to soil P and, finally, all maize fields and related them to soil N.     

大城市郊区土地利用结构类型区评价：以南京市为例

通过对南京市郊区土地利用结构类型区划分指标的模糊聚类分析，将南京城郊划分为８个类型区，并比较分析了各个类型区的土地利用特征及集约经营程度，土地利用效益，最后指出：为了优化配置郊区土地资源，南京市郊区土地利用必须采取因地制宜，综合利用，集约经营，增加投入，保护耕地，持续利用的措施。