基于模糊优选和CRITIC法的电力碳排放权区域初始分配——以华东电网区域为例

为科学、合理分配电力行业碳排放权,文章综合考虑公平、效率和可持续发展原则,构建了电力碳排放权分配体系,并利用CRITIC法确定指标权重,运用模糊优选法计算碳排放权初始分配比例,结果表明:单位地区生产总值电耗是最主要的影响因素,公平原则下的电力碳排放量、电力能源消费总量和火力发电量也是重要的影响因素;碳排放量问题是复杂的系统问题,碳排放权初始分配要综合考虑公平性原则、效率性原则和可持续原则。最后,为达到和谐稳定的碳排放权分配方案,希望在以后的研究中加强和谐型评判与改进方法。     

公务员录用分配方案探讨

针对现行公务员录用分配制度存在的问题，通过细致的分析，探讨关于公务员录用分配的最佳策略．决策过程中以应聘者能力与各部门要求的偏差为标准，建立模型，且考虑所有应聘者的意愿时，分三种情况进行讨论：都服从志愿调配；都不服从志愿调配；既有服从调配的、又有不服从志愿调配的，使模型更接近实际情况．     

工业生态效率对PM2.5污染的影响及溢出效应

针对2004—2016年中国地级市工业生态效率与PM_2.5的时空关联特征和影响作用关系的研究表明：（1）工业生态效率与PM_2.5呈时空交错分布特征,PM_2.5高污染区连片分布于华北平原及长江中下游城市,工业生态效率高等级区集中分布于长三角、珠三角和环渤海经济区等沿海地市及中西部城市群内部分中心地市;（2）工业生态效率对PM_2.5的冲击表现出“U型”变化的负向累积效应,PM_2.5对工业生态效率的冲击则表现为“倒U型”变化的正向累积效应;（3）工业生态效率与PM_2.5呈稳定时空关联演化特征,高高关联类型区集中分布于京津冀城市群、山东半岛城市群和长三角城市群内大部分城市,低低关联类型区多分布于鄱阳湖城市群、关中城市群及西部地市;（4）工业生态效率对PM_2.5总体上具有显著且稳健的正向影响,但表现出明显的空间异质性,工业集聚水平、科技创新及城市绿化率起到显著负向影响,而城市规模、环保监督及产业结构系数影响并不显著。     

NORMALIZED AGRICULTURAL PRICES AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Short-term fluctuations in agricultural markets necesitate adjustments in market prices for use in water resources planning. Two procudures for this price normalizing are described and evaluated. The linear treand and weighted average normalizing procedures perform reasonably well, except in cases of dramatic price oscillations.     

A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios. Published on line     

Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic Region

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.     

Detecting Differences in Crown Transparency Assessments Between Countries using the Image Analysis System Croco

Estimates of crown transparency calculated using the semi-automatic image analysis system CROCO were compared withthe visual estimates of survey teams from 12 European countries.For each of five European species (Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), Scotspine (Pinus sylvestris L.), beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), oak (Quercus robur L.)) 15 trees were assessed. In 64\% of the comparisons, CROCO estimates and the survey teams' scores differed significantly, while differences between countries were significant in 58 % of all comparisons. We calculated Spearman's rank correlation and the standard deviation of the differences between CROCO and each country and between pairs of countries. We then computed the medians for CROCO and each country. CROCO and only a few countries hadfor all species a higher median correlation and lower median standard deviation than the median for the comparison between countries. In addition no country had a consistently higher correlation or lower standard deviation than CROCO. We concludethat CROCO can provide more consistent and less variable estimates of crown transparency than visual assessments and that it can serve as a reference to detect differences in visualtransparency assessments between countries over time.     

关于模糊综合指数与模糊向量加权记分

通过将模糊向量加权记分与模糊综合指数的计算步骤、计算内容和方法一一进行比较,证明模糊向量加权记分与模糊综合指数无本质差异。所采用的分制规定差异,只能使模糊向量加权记分所得结果更加不合理。采用模糊综合指数法,选用恰当的权重,可以克服“优劣倒置”现象。     

铁路提速区段中间站行车安全评价的研究

分析了影响铁路提速区段中间站行车安全的主要因素;基于系统工程的理论原则,从人员安全保障、设备安全保障、环境安全保障、基础安全管理保障4个方面着手,确立了铁路提速区段中间站行车安全评价指标体系;运用模糊层次分析法,建立了评价模型;提出了铁路提速区段中间站行车安全保障模糊层次评价的一般方法;对我国铁路主干线某一提速区段中间站进行实例分析,其结果显示,基础安全管理占有十分重要的位置;最后,笔者建议,在我国铁路实现“客运高速、货运重载”的发展方向下,应当加强提速区段中间站的安全管理,认真进行行车安全评价,实现行车事故的预测与预防     

Learning Machines Applied to Potential Forest Distribution

The clearing of forests to obtain land for pasture and agriculture and the replacement of autochthonous species by other faster-growing varieties of trees for timber have both led to the loss of vast areas of forest worldwide. At present, many developed countries are attempting to reverse these effects, establishing policies for the restoration of older woodland systems. Reforestation is a complex matter, planned and carried out by experts who need objective information regarding the type of forest that can be sustained in each area. This information is obtained by drawing up feasibility models constructed using statistical methods that make use of the information provided by morphological and environmental variables (height, gradient, rainfall, etc.) that partially condition the presence or absence of a specific kind of forestation in an area. The aim of this work is to construct a set of feasibility models for woodland located in the basin of the River Liébana (NW Spain), to serve as a support tool for the experts entrusted with carrying out the reforestation project. The techniques used are multilayer perceptron neural networks and support vector machines. Their results will be compared to the results obtained by traditional techniques (such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression) by measuring the degree of fit between each model and the existing distribution of woodlands. The interpretation and problems of the feasibility models are commented on in the Discussion section.