A hybrid approach using ISM and fuzzy TOPSIS for the selection of reverse logistics provider

Return of used products is becoming an important logistics activity due to government legislation and increasing awareness among the people to protect the environment and reduce waste. For industries, the management of return flow usually requires a specialized infrastructure with special information systems for tracking and dedicated equipment for the processing of returns. Therefore, industries are turning to third-party reverse logistics providers (3PRLPs). In this study, a multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) model in fuzzy environment is developed to guide the selection process of best 3PRLP. The interactions among the criteria are also analyzed before arriving at a decision for the selection of 3PRLP from among 15 alternatives. The analysis is done through Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Finally the effectiveness of the model is illustrated using a case study on battery manufacturing industry in India.     

煤与瓦斯突出预测的支持向量机(SVM)模型

基于支持向量机(SVM)分类算法,考虑影响煤与瓦斯突出的主要因素,建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测的SVM模型。该模型选取开采深度、瓦斯压力、瓦斯放散初速度、煤的坚固性系数以及地质破坏程度5个指标作为模型输入量,同时将煤与瓦斯突出程度划分为无突出、小型突出、中型突出和大型突出4个等级,进而使其评判结果更为细化。以实测数据作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应判别函数对待判样本进行预测。通过算例分析,表明该模型的方法对煤与瓦斯突出预测的合理性与有效性,可以在实际工程中推广。     

基于支持向量机的边坡稳定性预测研究

针对边坡稳定性影响因素复杂,传统的稳定性分析存在计算量大、计算过程复杂的问题,提出了边坡稳定性的支持向量机预测方法。分析了边坡稳定性的影响因素,选择影响边坡稳定性的边坡重度、内聚力、摩擦角、边坡角、边坡高度、孔隙压力比6项指标为特征向量。并运行该方法对典型边坡实例进行了预测,预测结果与边坡稳定性实际状态及其它方法预测结果相吻合,表明了支持向量机在边坡稳定性预测中的可靠性和有效性。     

硫化矿石自燃倾向性鉴定技术研究

根据硫化矿石自燃过程的复杂性,通过程序升温氧化（TPO）实验对硫化矿石吸附性能进行研究,提出了硫化矿石程序升温氧化（TPO）吸氧鉴定的方法,测试矿样温度从30℃到1000％条件下的总吸氧量和自热起始温度作为硫化矿石自燃倾向性鉴定指标,并对其进行分类;提出了基于支持向量机的硫化矿石自燃倾向性预测方法,通过预测建模最终达到了预期数据与实际数据的最佳拟合。     

Potential impact model to assess agricultural pressure to landscape ecological functions

Conservation and protection of soil and water resources and visual aspects of landscape, as well as the promotion of biodiversity, are some of the central tasks of environmental policy development and social politics in the future. One of the main questions is: ‘which agricultural systems are able to guarantee sustained resource-conserving land use?’ Based on the ecological risk concepts of the 1970s and 1980s, a potential impact model was developed using a universal assessment algorithm derived from fuzzy logic. The model estimated the potential impact of agricultural land use on ecosystem function using a few resource indicators. Intervention intensities of agricultural land-use are set in relation to site conditions and aggregated for each of several defined potential impact categories. The interpretation with respect to risk and the calculation of potential impact values are explained.     

城市空气质量模糊评价新方法

在权广义距离概念的基础上提出一种新的城市空气质量模糊评价方法,评价过程能充分利用实际数据所包含的各种信息.与模糊综合评判模型的同一应用实例结果进行比较,表明文章提出的评价方法更为有效.     

Vector-Borne Diseases, Development & Climate Change

Vector-borne diseases are feared to extend their range in a future where global warming has occurred. There is considerable concern about scourges such as malaria re-invading currently temperate regions and reaching into higher altitudes in Africa. In this paper we examine the various factors thought to determine potential infectivity of malaria, and its actual outbreak in the context of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We quantify: (i) the role of demographics in placing a larger population in harms way; (ii) the role of climate change in increasing the potential geographic range and severity of the risk of infection; and (iii) the role of economic and social development in limiting the occurrence of malaria. We then explore the climate and economic implications of various climate policies in their effectiveness to limit potential infectivity of malaria. In illustration of these issues we present the climate-related and economics-related impacts of unilateral CO₂ control by OECD on incidence of malaria in non-OECD nations. The model presented here, although highly stylized in its representation of socio-economic factors, provides strong evidence of the role of socio-economic factors in determination of malaria incidence. The case study offers insights into unintended adverse consequences of well-meaning climate policies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

黄浦江水环境污染风险的模糊数学综合评价

采用模糊综合评价模型对2005年黄浦江6个监测断面水质状况进行评价。结果表明：2005年间黄浦江6个监测断面水质均属于V（严重污染）类,其主要污染物为氮磷营养物。     

基于支持向量机的高速公路事件检测

针对交通领域中的事件检测(无事件模式和事件模式)模式识别问题,描述了支持向量机(SVM)支持的基本方法,建立了基于线性(linear function)、多项式(polynomial function)和径向基(radial basis function)3种核函数的事件检测SVM模型。采用高速公路路段I-880线圈数据集和事件数据集验证模型,结果发现:无论对于向北、向南或混合方向的事件检测,在3个SVM模型中,SVM(P)检测效果最好,SVM(L)最差。SVM算法具有避免局部最小,实现全局最优化,更好的泛化效果的优点,是高速公路事件检测的一种很有潜力的算法。     

一种改进的模糊聚类方法在大气环境质量评价中的应用

一般的模糊聚类分析方法只能解决大气污染状况的顺序问题,或只能得出此地与彼地的大气质量状况的相似程度,而不能同时确定大气质量的具体等级。本文提出的一种改进的模糊聚类分析方法解决了这一问题、该方法的主要改进在于:①以各污染因子的污染程度的分级标准值为聚类中心,待分样本与聚类中心之间的相似系数或待分样本隶属于某一类的隶属函数作为聚类函数;②相似系数设计为几何平均最小型,隶属函数设计为正态分布型。实例计算和比较表明,该方法是大气环境质量评价中的一种较好的方法。