营区雨水集蓄利用效果评价模糊数学模型

本文以研究营区内雨水集蓄利用效果为目的。分析雨水集蓄利用不同方法,通过建立合理模糊数学模型,对各种雨水集蓄利用方法进行权重比较,得出最优结果。并将该模型用在营区雨水集蓄利用效果的评价分析,通过运算结果确定营区内雨水利用效果的优、良、中、差。通过运用模糊数学模型对营区内雨水集蓄利用方法进行分析,综合评价营区内雨水集蓄利用结果为良好。     

基于广义加权组合预测法的建设用地需求预测——以苏州市为例

对现行采用的多种常用建设用地需求量预测方法进行了比较,并以苏州市为例,采用5种预测模型进行了对比分析,利用近13年的统计数据进行了验证.结果表明,广义加权组合预测法得到的结果误差最小、精度最高.     

堤防工程综合安全模型和风险评价体系研究及应用

为获得荆南长江干堤的安全特性,在层次分析法及模糊一致理论的基础上,考虑堤防工程水、土两相系材料的特点,建立了模糊综合评判系统结构模型。通过正态型模糊隶属函数,结合两种权值理论实现了对堤防工程的安全综合评判。在模糊综合评判结论的基础上,结合模式识别的间接方法,提出了广义多维加权模糊识别模型,实现了对典型堤身段的安全模式识别,并对模型指标体系作了敏感性分析。所得成果比较全面地反映了干堤在复杂运行条件下的综合安全特性,对指导工程现场管理与监测有现实意义。对于复杂堤防系统,模糊综合评判是实现全面风险分析的有效手段,而广义多维加权模糊识别模型可以为工程安全决策提供有力依据。     

基于模糊数学的大气环境质量综合评价

鉴于大气环境质量评价中客观存在的不确定性和模糊性,运用模糊数学方法,选用SO2、NO2、PM10作为评价因子,参照大气环境质量标准,通过计算污染因子权重分配系数和隶属度对乌鲁木齐市2004年至2010年大气环境质量给出客观的评价,综合评价结果表明乌鲁木齐市总体大气环境质量为轻度污染(三级),但空气质量在逐年好转,SO2和PM10依然是乌鲁木齐市空气质量的制约因子,且NO2的权重在逐年上升。模糊综合评判考虑环境空气质量评价的模糊性,根据污染物浓度对各级别的贴近度考察污染物的级别,评价结果比较直观,可以细致准确的评价环境质量等级,评价结果基本可以反映环境空气污染的情况。     

Predicting dioxin-like PCBs soil contamination levels using milk of grazing animal as indicator

Dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) are ubiquitous persistent organic pollutants of recognized negative effects on human health. Assessing highly polluted areas should be an important public health issue. This study proposes to use the milk of grazing animals as a bioindicator of dl-PCB contamination in the environment. The hypothesis is that milk concentration of dl-PCBs are related to soil concentrations of these compounds, and that soils are generally reflective of a larger environmental issue of dl-PCB contamination. In this study, we evaluate the possibility of predicting soil concentrations using milk of sheep, cows and buffalos in a spatial model. For this purpose, samples of soil and milk collected in Campania (Italy) were introduced in a GIS platform to perform geostatistical analysis for building a simple predictive model. The ordinary least squares regressions (OLS) showed a statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) between soil and milk contamination. However, this relationship was spatially variable. Thus, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) was performed, obtaining R² values of 0.91, 0.77 and 0.66 for sheep’s, buffalo’s and cow’s milk respectively. Assessed the mathematical relationships between the variables, new data was introduced to evaluate the performance of the model. Predictions of soil contamination with dl-PCBs using sheep’s, cow’s and buffalo’s milk showed a mean error of 23%, 25% and 36% respectively. According to these results the sheep’s milk can be considered the best bioindicator of dl-PCBs contamination among the three species. The results of this project evidence the potentialities of the proposed approach to assess bioindicator performance in a spatial predictive model.     

基于模糊综合模型的湿地沉积物重金属污染评价

应用模糊综合-加权模型,以及温州市3个典型湿地沉积物中7种重金属含量数据,对温瑞塘河重金属污染进行评价。模糊综合评价结果表明,温州市居民区河流三垟湿地沉积物属于Ⅴ级重金属污染水平,主要污染元素为Zn和Cd;山前上游河段卧龙河沉积物为Ⅲ级污染,主要污染物是Cd。工业区河流牛桥底河沉积物虽然也是Ⅴ级,但是Cu、Cr、Ni、Zn和Cd 5种重金属污染分值为1.0,小于前2个典型河段的1.2和3.3。内梅罗指数法和潜在生态危害系数法评价结果显示,沉积物的重金属污染程度为牛桥底河三垟湿地卧龙河,这与模糊综合评价结果相符。     

Interval-parameter Fuzzy-stochastic Semi-infinite Mixed-integer Linear Programming for Waste Management under Uncertainty

An interval-parameter fuzzy-stochastic semi-infinite mixed-integer linear programming (IFSSIP) method is developed for waste management under uncertainties. The IFSSIP method integrates the fuzzy programming, chance-constrained programming, integer programming and interval semi-infinite programming within a general optimization framework. The model is applied to a waste management system with three disposal facilities, three municipalities, and three periods. Compared with the previous methods, IFSSIP have two major advantages. One is that it can help generate solutions for the stable ranges of the decision variables and objective function value under fuzzy satisfaction degree and different levels of probability of violating constraints, which are informative and flexible for solution users to interpret/justify. The other is that IFSSIP can not only handle uncertainties through constructing fuzzy and random parameter, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through interval function of time over the planning horizon. By comparing IFSSIP with interval-parameter mixed-integer linear semi-infinite programming and parametric programming, the IFSSIP method is more reasonable than others.     

人工湿地生态系统健康评价实证研究

建立了健康评价指标体系,改进了原有评价标准,构建了模糊综合评价模型,对苏州太湖国家旅游度假区一期人工湿地生态系统进行了健康评价,得出了度假区人工湿地健康评价综合评分为0．784,识别了健康制约因子,并提出了相应的调控措施,以期为湿地的二期、三期工程建设提供科学依据。     

农地流转对农地与劳动力资源利用效率的影响——基于甘肃省农户调查数据的实证研究

本研究采用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）分别就农地流转对农地、农业劳动力、非农劳动力和总劳动力资源利用效率的影响进行了分析。结果表明,农户的农地转入和转出行为都能有效提高总劳动力资源利用效率,而农地转出行为在一定程度上降低了农地资源利用效率。农地转入户的总劳动力和农业劳动力资源利用效率比未参与流转的农户分别高2026.153元/人和4844.289元/人,两组农户间的农地资源利用效率差异不显著;农地转出户的总劳动力和非农劳动力资源利用效率比未参与流转的农户分别高3315.577元/人和2581.883元/人,其农地资源利用效率比未参与流转的农户低466.488元/亩。因此,农地流转不一定会提高农地资源利用效率,但有利于促进农村劳动力专业化,从而提高农村总劳动力资源利用效率。     

风景区环境噪声的模糊综合评价

通过对城市风景旅游公园内各不同功能的景点区进行环境噪声实测和对游人进行主观反应调查,运用模糊数学的原理,对公园环境噪声进行综合评价。在目前尚未对城市风景旅游公园建立专门的噪声标准的情况下,这一评价方法对正确评估城市风景旅游公园的声环境质量有积极的实用意义。