Consequences of ignoring dispersal variation in network models for landscape connectivity

Habitat loss and fragmentation can negatively influence population persistence and biodiversity, but the effects can be mitigated if species successfully disperse between isolated habitat patches. Network models are the primary tool for quantifying landscape connectivity, yet in practice, an overly simplistic view of species dispersal is applied. These models often ignore individual variation in dispersal ability under the assumption that all individuals move the same fixed distance with equal probability. We developed a modeling approach to address this problem. We incorporated dispersal kernels into network models to determine how individual variation in dispersal alters understanding of landscape-level connectivity and implemented our approach on a fragmented grassland landscape in Minnesota. Ignoring dispersal variation consistently overestimated a population's robustness to local extinctions and underestimated its robustness to local habitat loss. Furthermore, a simplified view of dispersal underestimated the amount of habitat substructure for small populations but overestimated habitat substructure for large populations. Our results demonstrate that considering biologically realistic dispersal alters understanding of landscape connectivity in ecological theory and conservation practice.     

基于AHP-FUZZY与SVM理论电网雷害风险评估

为了对电网遭受雷击灾害风险进行研究,以高压输电线路多个雷害影响因子为出发点对其进行归类,解决了以单因子雷击跳闸率作为高压输电线路遭受雷害评价指标的不足。采用AHP(层次分析法)-FUZZY(模糊数学理论)对电网雷害风险展开评估分级,引入某地500 k V电网工程实例,成功将该地电网雷害风险等级定为Ⅲ级中等雷害风险。为验证AHP-FUZZY法对电网雷害风险进行评估的准确性及可靠度,采用SVM(支持向量机)理论对工程实例进行分析计算,结果相关性系数R2为0.932,预测错误率为0,表明本次风险评估是可靠的,能够为电网雷害风险研究提供较大的理论与实际支撑。     

Assessment of uncertainties in expert knowledge, illustrated in fuzzy rule-based models

The coherence between different aspects in the environmental system leads to a demand for comprehensive models of this system to explore the effects of different management alternatives. Fuzzy logic has been suggested as a means to extend the application domain of environmental modelling from physical relations to expert knowledge. In such applications the expert describes the system in terms of fuzzy variables and inference rules. The result of the fuzzy reasoning process is a numerical output value. In such a model, as in any other, the model context, structure, technical aspects, parameters and inputs may contribute uncertainties to the model output. Analysis of these contributions in a simplified model for agriculture suitability shows how important information about the accuracy of the expert knowledge in relation to the other uncertainties can be provided. A method for the extensive assessment of uncertainties in compositional fuzzy rule-based models is proposed, combining the evaluation of model structure, input and parameter uncertainties. In an example model, each of these three appear to have the potential to dominate aggregated uncertainty, supporting the relevance of an ample uncertainty approach.     

基于核校准和SVM的煤矿安全组织管理因素分析

组织管理因素与煤矿安全生产密切相关。该文从人的管理、组织机构管理、企业环境管理、现场及技术管理四个方面详细分析了煤矿组织管理中的主要影响因素,提出一种基于核校准和支持向量机（SVM）的组织管理安全评价等级预测方法,构建了影响因素形成的输入空间到评价等级空间的非线性映射,并详尽分析了组织管理的安全评价等级与各影响因素的关联关系。在此基础上,本文深入研究煤矿安全中各组织管理因素的作用规律,并探讨了相应的预防措施与控制方法。实例分析结果表明,该方法能够合理地反映煤矿企业的组织管理安全评价状况,有助于煤矿企业采取相应措施预防或减少安全事故的发生,同时,也为企业提高本质安全管理水平提供了参考,有较强的实用性。     

Modelling and analysis of sustainable manufacturing system using a digraph-based approach

Abstract

Sustainable manufacturing practices have many benefits like cleaner production, resource efficiency along with economic benefits. Sustainable manufacturing practices focuses on four dimensions environment, economy, business and society. The effective deployment of sustainable concepts mostly depends on interaction of these sustainable dimensions. In this study, an attempt on assessment through modelling has been presented. Mostly two factors determine the sustainable performance of organisation: the performance of the criteria is identified under four dimensions (inheritance) and their interaction (interdependency) among each other. Thus, graph theory-based modelling has been done considering both inheritance and interdependency for computing Overall Organisation Sustainability (OOS) score. Finally, permanent scores for matrices obtained from experts’ team have been computed. OOS score for the organisation has been computed and is compared with the scores of hypothetical scenarios. Through the comparison with hypothetically generated practical best and worst-case scenario, insights have been derived.     

基于灰色支持向量机的湿天然气集输管道腐蚀研究

湿天然气集输管道系统运行时间长,管道腐蚀严重,失效泄漏事故频发,其系统风险评价面临诸多问题,因而研究其腐蚀率预测有重要意义。基于灰色支持向量机(GSVM)方法,综合考虑管道材质及其各种影响因素,对其进行灰色相关分析,并根据结果选取有较高相关度的影响因子作为输入变量,将腐蚀率作为目标输出函数,建立湿天然气集输管道腐蚀预测模型。并通过实证分析比较,发现用该模型计算出的管道腐蚀率平均相对误差较小,其预测结果与实际值吻合程度较高,使预测精度得到提高。     

高风险移动放射源风险管控模糊综合评价

根据高风险移动放射源辐射安全风险特点与辐射事故经验反馈,结合辐射安全监管部门和企业实际,在充分调研的基础上,构建高风险移动放射源辐射安全风险管控评价指标体系,体系分为目标层、准则层和方案层,准则层8项指标,方案层40项指标。采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,运用模糊综合评价方法对甘肃省7家高风险移动放射源企业进行评价,结果表明决策层指标权重较大,与实际情况相符。     

同异反向量模型在电厂安全评价中的应用

根据集对分析理论,针对安全评价系统的不确定性特点,采用了同异反向量模型对某电厂进行安全评价,评价结果与原文献吻合.该方法数学表达式简单,计算方便,物理意义明确.在安全评价过程中,差异度系数I的不同取值,反映了该电厂安全状况的变化,是安全管理工作的"晴雨表",可以使安全状况受到"增益"或"惩罚",映射出安全管理工作的重要性.这种方法为企业管理者提供了量化分析,使管理者对企业的安全程度及发展趋势有了更确切的了解,为安全管理工作提供依据.     

The implications of ecosystem dynamics for fisheries management: a case study of selected fisheries in the Gulf of Paria, Trinidad

It is accepted that if fisheries resources are to remain renewable and able to sustain livelihoods, appropriate management practices must be implemented. Even while fisheries management grapples to resolve single-species issues, the biological and economic interactions among species mandate that to be effective, management techniques must be based on more interactive and aggregate-level analyses. In order to implement these techniques, the actual links, and the potential impact of these links, among the fisheries must be established. Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis has the potential to play an increasingly important role in ecosystem modelling for fisheries management. This study uses VAR analysis to demonstrate the quantitative impact of certain ecosystem changes on the productivity of the carite, honey shrimp and croaker fisheries of the Gulf of Paria, Trinidad, in the particular context of the ecosystem dynamics of trophic linkages, bycatch and multispecies fisheries. Four VAR models are constructed to investigate the extent to which these factors affect the production of the selected fisheries, and to evaluate the management implications of these linkages. The empirical analysis is further evidence that, if sustainable management of fishery resources is to be achieved, management practices based on more multi-species, ecosystem approaches must replace the traditional, single-species management techniques.     

溧阳市1985~2011年环境空气质量变化规律的模糊综合评价

选用模糊综合评价法,对溧阳市1985~2011年环境空气质量进行了综合评价,选用SO2、NO2、TSP/PM10作为评价因素,通过计算各评价因素权重分配系数和隶属度,分析了长期空气环境质量变化趋势。结果表明:TSP/PM 10为1985年以来溧阳市首要环境空气质量制约因素,20世纪80年代中期全市空气质量主要隶属于一级标准,20世纪80年代后期主要隶属于二级标准,20世纪90年代初期主要隶属于三级标准,20世纪90年代中后期至今主要隶属于二级标准,近几年受TSP/PM1 0因素影响,在三级标准的隶属度有上升趋势;自20世纪90年代中期始,NO 2超越SO2成为继PM 10之后制约空气质量的第2大因素;经济发展对环境空气质量的规模效应较为显著,技术减排效应逐步显现。