Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

Choosing a home: how the scouts in a honey bee swarm perceive the completion of their group decision making

This study considers the mystery of how the scout bees in a honey bee swarm know when they have completed their group decision making regarding the swarm's new nest site. More specifically, we investigated how the scouts sense when it is appropriate for them to begin producing the worker piping signals that stimulate their swarm-mates to prepare for the flight to their new home. We tested two hypotheses: "consensus sensing," the scouts noting when all the bees performing waggle dances are advertising just one site; and "quorum sensing," the scouts noting when one site is being visited by a sufficiently large number of scouts. Our test involved monitoring four swarms as they discovered, recruited to, and chose between two nest boxes and their scouts started producing piping signals. We found that a consensus among the dancers was neither necessary nor sufficient for the start of worker piping, which indicates that the consensus sensing hypothesis is false. We also found that a buildup of 10–15 or more bees at one of the nest boxes was consistently associated with the start of worker piping, which indicates that the quorum sensing hypothesis may be true. In considering why the scout bees rely on reaching a quorum rather than a consensus as their cue of when to start preparing for liftoff, we suggest that quorum sensing may provide a better balance between accuracy and speed in decision making. In short, the bees appear to begin preparations for liftoff as soon as enough of the scout bees, but not all of them, have approved of one of the potential nest sites.

加速遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

提出了一般非线性自然灾害模型参数优化的一种通用的数值方法———加速遗传算法,分析了该算法控制参数的优化特性,总结出了这些参数的简便设置技术,并给出了它在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用实例。该方法可广泛应用于各种自然灾害模型的优化问题。     

影响郑州市大气TSP浓度诸因素的灰色关联分析与弹性分析

根据郑州市大气TSP浓度的监测数据以及相关影响因素数据，运用灰色系统理论的关联分析方法，得出了影响TSP浓度的主要因素，并通过建立灰色GM（1，N）模型，运用弹性分析理论分析了各影因素对TSP浓度的贡献大小。经过两者分析，提出了控制和治理TSP污染的对策。     

海河平原农业供水的决策分析模型

本文根据海河平原水源不足的问题,采用系统分析的方法,探讨了农业供水的对策。提出的决策分析模型可望适用于不同大小的区域。通过实际资料的分析得出实行节流、管理与开源的具体方案及经济效益。分析成果表明推行节水灌溉技术与管理措施是完全可行的。在建立节流系统(包括管带与滴灌及调整耕作制度、作物布局)和加强水管理的基础上,实行开源引江、引黄,可大大缩减调水规模,降低开源工程投资,缓和工农与城乡供水的矛盾。     

郑州大气氮氧化物污染与灰色分析

通过对郑州市大气中NOx的监测和分析，初步揭示了NOx变化的规律。同时，运用灰色关联度分析，定量地分析了影响郑州市NOx变化的因素。并建立了该市的NOx产生量的GM（1，1）预测模型。结果表明：（1）影响NOx污染的主要因子是家庭用气普及率；（2）NOx在大气中的浓度呈逐年下降的趋势，2002年预测值为0.043mg/m^3。     

基于决策树的城市黑臭水体遥感分级

水体黑臭程度遥感监测是了解城市水质现状和综合评价城市水环境治理效果的重要手段.以南京、常州、无锡和扬州为研究区,共采集171个样点,同步测量水质参数和光学参数,分析黑臭水体与一般水体的水色和光学特征,构建决策树模型进行重度黑臭水体、轻度黑臭水体和非黑臭水体（记为一般水体）识别.结果表明：①根据色度可将水体分为1~6类水体,其中,类型1~4为黑臭水体,分别为灰黑色、深灰色、灰色和浅灰色水体,类型5和类型6水体为一般水体,分别为绿色系和黄色系水体;②类型1水体的非色素颗粒物和有色可溶性有机物含量高,但色素颗粒物的吸收并不占主导,类型2和5水体的吸收以色素颗粒物吸收占主导,类型3、4和6水体的吸收以非色素颗粒物吸收占主导;③根据六类水体的反射光谱差异用黑臭水体差值指数（difference of black-odorous water index,DBWI）、三波段面积水体指数（green-red-nir area water index,G-R-NIR AWI）、绿光波段反射率和归一化黑臭水体指数（normalized difference black-odorous water index,NDBWI）构建的水体分类识别决策树,能够有效识别出重、轻度黑臭水体和一般水体;④将决策树模型应用于2019年4月9日扬州的PlanetScope影像上,并利用10个同步过境点进行验证,整体识别精度达到80.00%,K值达到0.67.通过水色分类后的城市水体分级模型方法,可推广应用于类似的水体,为黑臭水体监管提供技术方法.     

改进的DEMATEL法在航空公司外委维修安全风险分析中的应用

为有效识别和分析外委维修安全风险因素间复杂的影响关系,提出了群决策DEMATEL分析方法。该方法以语言变量和三角模糊数之间的转换为基础,通过群决策理论集结专家信息建立直接影响矩阵;利用DEMATEL分析法对外委维修的安全风险因素进行辨识,实现定性定量相结合的分析。以某航空公司为例,采用该方法分析了14个对外委维修安全影响显著的风险因素。结果表明,在外委维修过程中,航空公司和承修商应重点监控7个原因型因素和中心度排序靠前的6个因素。     

熵权多目标决策模型在水环境质量综合评价中的应用

介绍了熵和熵权的概念与性质,在此基础上结合多目标决策模型建立熵权多目标决策评价方法,并对水环境质量进行综合评价,评价结果与物元分析模型、属性识别理论方法、模糊隶属函数法进行对比,结果表明,利用熵权多目标决策评价法进行水环境质量综合评价是可行的。     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.