基于GAHP-BOCR解决瓦斯隧道安全施工决策问题

施工单位依据实践经验提出了不同于《铁路瓦斯隧道技术规范》的施工措施,为了评价不同施工措施的优劣性,选用灰色层次分析法和利益-机会-代价-风险模型。首先建立瓦斯隧道安全施工评价准则体系,运用灰色理论处理数据,得到准则和子准则对于瓦斯隧道安全施工的权重影响值;其次评价每个子准则对于BOCR属性值,得到BOCR对于总目标的影响程度,并对每个施工措施的B、O、C、R进行评价得出综合计算结果;最后对不同施工措施提出相应的意见。     

生活必需品现场保障数据系统的设计与实现

生活必需品现场保障数据系统是面向我国重特大灾害事件应急救灾物资保障的重大需求,以水、食品、生活用品等生活必需品应急物资为研究对象,针对生活必需品应急保障装备和技术平台支撑不足的问题,开发了生活必需品保障专用系统。该系统基于ASP.Net、RFID、二维条形码、ANDROID终端开发平台等多种信息化和网络化技术手段,实现了生活必需品出入库管理、库存信息统计分析、补给物资物流信息跟踪、需求信息辅助生成、保障对象管理和物资分配模型管理、物资分配方案辅助生成等功能。该系统在物资库存管理的基础上,通过对库存信息进行统计、对预计消耗信息进行基于模型的分析、对预计货物补充信息进行跟踪,对需求报送信息进行辅助生成,实现了对生活必需品库存变化的全过程进行跟踪,并可以通过在一定范围内动态调整物资分配模型,动态调整需求报送数量实现了对生活必需品库存的优化管理。生活必需品现场保障数据系统面向灾害现场的生活必需品物资存储与分配管理,并且与商务部门的后台物资调度系统无缝整合,成为全国应急生活必需品物资保障大平台的重要组件。     

Decision‐making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

A traditional view of decision‐making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the ‘top strategic decision‐making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision‐making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision‐makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision‐making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.     

Book reviews and notices

The aim of sustainable development is to balance social, economic, and environmental needs. In order to justify the decisions they make, stakeholders must quantify the different impacts found in the operations and developments of companies and/or projects throughout their life cycle. However, as some areas are subjective in nature, the quantification process of the different impacts and the assessment of sustainable development performance become arduous tasks of development, validation, and application of scientific and empirical methods with the intrinsic objective of finding an agreement among the involved parties (i.e., stakeholders). Several environmental and sustainability assessment tools, instruments, processes, and methodologies have been developed; rating systems stand out and have gained attention and credibility, as demonstrated by the vast number of certified projects around the world and the widely-known usefulness and advantages of their application. The Wa-Pa-Su project sustainability rating system presents an integrated approach to sustainability assessment by integrating three distinctive areas of knowledge: (1) sustainable development theory and fundamentals supports the ultimate goal of the rating system, which is to contribute to sustainability, with the aim of finding a path to balance social, economic, and environmental needs; (2) continual performance improvement becomes essential due to the duration of the projects, as it is critical to allow organizations or projects to improve performance over time; and (3) multi-criteria decision analysis assists with the assessment process through stakeholder engagement and participation, and the design and implementation of a criteria weighting system.     

Temporary site selection and decision‐making methods: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi‐attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415–610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

城市轨道交通突发大客流协同应急决策研究

为研究城市轨道交通突发大客流下的客流控制应急决策的制定与调整,对城市轨道交通客流特征进行分析,将协同矩阵与多目标规划理论运用到突发大客流下多车站协同客流控制应急决策研究中。在协同车站间路网拓扑结构的基础上,提出分别考虑各车站协同与不协同、协同车站加入或退出、协同车站评价标准变化等情况下,初始应急决策的制定与动态方案调整方法。研究结果表明:使用该方法能够表达城市轨道交通车站间协同作业的各种状态,实现突发客流冲击情况下的路网多车站动态协同应急决策的制定与动态调整,可为城市轨道交通网络化协同作业理论与方法的研究提供参考。     

Bayesian Networks and Adaptive Management of Wildlife Habitat

Abstract: Adaptive management is an iterative process of gathering new knowledge regarding a system's behavior and monitoring the ecological consequences of management actions to improve management decisions. Although the concept originated in the 1970s, it is rarely actively incorporated into ecological restoration. Bayesian networks (BNs) are emerging as efficient ecological decision‐support tools well suited to adaptive management, but examples of their application in this capacity are few. We developed a BN within an adaptive‐management framework that focuses on managing the effects of feral grazing and prescribed burning regimes on avian diversity within woodlands of subtropical eastern Australia. We constructed the BN with baseline data to predict bird abundance as a function of habitat structure, grazing pressure, and prescribed burning. Results of sensitivity analyses suggested that grazing pressure increased the abundance of aggressive honeyeaters, which in turn had a strong negative effect on small passerines. Management interventions to reduce pressure of feral grazing and prescribed burning were then conducted, after which we collected a second set of field data to test the response of small passerines to these measures. We used these data, which incorporated ecological changes that may have resulted from the management interventions, to validate and update the BN. The network predictions of small passerine abundance under the new habitat and management conditions were very accurate. The updated BN concluded the first iteration of adaptive management and will be used in planning the next round of management interventions. The unique belief‐updating feature of BNs provides land managers with the flexibility to predict outcomes and evaluate the effectiveness of management interventions.     

水质灰色预测模型在VBA中的实现

灰色预测是环境污染预测应用相当广泛的方法。根据文献报道,基于Matlab和Excel实现灰色预测中存在着占用内存、单元格填埋计算公式等等的不足,因此提出了一种基于VBA在Excel下编写宏程序轻松实现灰色预测的方法,并将其运用到北海市地表水污染物预测。结果表明,本程序简短,操作方便,计算结果准确可靠,彻底把用户从繁琐的手工操作中解放出来。     

高危行业事故应急科技服务实用性平台研究

针对当前我国高危行业应急平台建设中存在事故应急救援决策支撑弱、应急救援服务能力差的缺陷,以“江苏省高危行业事故应急科技服务平台”项目为背景,提出高危行业事故应急科技服务平台的总体建设架构;并以此为基础提出建立应急信息共享,预案可视化与推演,事故后果分析模拟,应急救援决策支持,应急咨询、培训、评估,事故现场快速监测六大子平台。以期利用VR、GIS、人工智能等先进技术,从功能、系统、体系三个层面完善高危行业事故应急科技服务平台建设内容,从而为政府门提供应急决策支持、为企业和社会公众提供应急科技服务。