A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF A SWEDISH AND A CHINESE HYDROLOGICAL MODEL1

ABSTRACT: There are a large number of conceptual hydrological models available today. It is not easy to immediately identify the similarities and differences between the different models. The Swedish HBV model and the Chinese Xinanjiang model are two examples of conceptual, semi-distributed, rainfall-runoff models. The Xinanjiang model was designed for use in humid and semi-humid regions, with no routine for the snowmelt runoff, whereas the snow routine is an important part of the HBV model in many applications. The model structures of the two models may be described in four routines, compared in this paper. The integral structures of them are similar, but there are some differences, especially in the runoff production routine. The physical significance and physical definitions of some model parameters were analyzed. Both models were tested in two basins. Both models gave similar results, and both models performed well in the application. The similarity of the results obtained by different model structures leads to the following two conclusions. First, more effort should probably be spent on the improvement of input data quality and coverage than on the development of more detailed model structures only. Second, inference about basin behavior and characteristics from the values of calibrated model parameters must be made with great caution.     

用灰色模型预测我国铁路水害发展趋势

根据近１５ａ来我国铁路水害年断道时间和断道次数的数据特点，将不同程度水害年分为三个等级。在此基础上，建立了铁路水害的灰色预测模型。并用此模型预测了近期铁路水害大小和远期的发展趋势。这对于我国铁路水害防治的宏观决策具有指导意义。     

自然灾害不同灾情的比较方法探讨

用计算自然灾害不同灾情的灰色关联度的方法，来对不同灾情进行比较分析。该方法不仅能够比较同一灾级中不同的灾情，也能够对不同灾级的灾情差异程度作比较分析，因而它与现有的不同灾情的比较方法相比，更科学合理。     

单一震源地震发生的等效物理模型

建立了模拟单一潜在震源区地震孕育和发生的等效物理模型，给出了通过调整各次地震之间断层位移速率来拟合已有地震序列的方法。通过考虑模型参数的不确定性，提出了在未来一定年限内潜在震源区发生震级在不同震级段的概率预报方法。通过两种等效物理模型的对比，本文认为就工程地震危险性评定而言，可用简单的滑块－弹簧模型代替滑块－弹粘塑性模型     

Accidents and risk control

A framework for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education is presented. An accident model was developed built on the concept “uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE)”, where essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy. A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g. an explosion, a release of heavy gases. A domain model has been developed for representing emergencies occurring in society. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements, and the domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. Ten specific domains have been investigated including process plant, energy production and distribution, natural disasters and different sorts of transport. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain.     

煤矿人为事故发生可能性预测数学模型研究

研究发现，煤矿工人的冒险行为主要可以由生产条件、个人表现、工作状况及用工方式等影响因素预测，煤矿人为事故的发生可能性主要由煤矿工人的冒险行为表现预测。据此，便可建立预测煤矿人为事故发生可能性的数学模型     

事故树定量分析与安全指标的数学模型的建立

阐述了在该课题研究过程中，提出的一些新概念、新定义和新方法     

正交化方法在水质模型参数确定中的应用

本文根据常微分方程参数反问题的数学理论，将正交化方法同有限差分法结合用于确定水质模型参数，并与正则化方法、最速下降法和共轭梯度法作了比较。其计算结果对比表明，正交化方法具有快速、简便、可靠的特点。更适合于水质模型参数的确定。     

燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染防治技术的选择及评价--中国燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染综合防治对策(八)

论述了中国燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染防治技术的选择及评价，其中主要包括：《中国燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染综合防治对策》的产生、主要内容、特点、选择、评价及其实施的意义。