关于铁路行车事故预测的应用研究

本文论述了事故预测对铁路行车安全的重要性,并应用灰色预测模型和概率回归估计法模型研制了预测软件,进行铁路行车事故的宏观及微观预测,为采取有针对性的防范措施提供一个可靠信息。     

几种事故预测方法的探讨

本文根据生产单位事故发生的随机性特点,论证了未来时段中事故次数及其时间分布等各项指标,是能够用多种随机数学模型和灰色系统理论来预测的。用非随机的函数模型预測事故是不合适的。给出了几种事故预測方法,并提出了几种值得研究和试用的方法。     

陕西延安地区1992—2000年干旱趋势灰色预测

本文存分析延安地区干旱特征的基础上,采用地地区40a的资料,运用灰色理论的预测方法,预测了1992～2000年间干旱发生的季节及强度,预计该时该区的旱情将持续出现,故提出必须立足抗旱,以保农业生产的稳步发展。     

灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

Assessing Anchor Damage on Coral Reefs: A Case Study in Selection of Environmental Indicators

Because environmental conservation can remove scarce natural resources from competing uses, it is important to gain support for conservation programs by demonstrating that management actions have been effective in achieving their goals. One way to do this is to show that selected significant environmental variables (indicators) vary between managed and unmanaged areas or change over time following implementation of a management regime. However, identifying indicators that reflect environmental conditions relevant to management practices has proven difficult. This paper focuses on developing a framework for choosing indicators in a coral reef habitat. The framework consisted of three phases: (1) information gathering to identify candidate variables; (2) field-testing candidate variables at sites that differ in intensity of human activity, thus identifying potential indicators; and (3) evaluating potential indicators against a set of feasibility criteria to identify the most useful indicators. To identify indicators suitable to measure the success of a management strategy to reduce anchor damage to a coral reef, 24 candidate variables were identified and evaluated at sites with different intensities of anchoring. In this study, measures that reflected injuries to coral colonies were generally more efficient than traditional measures of coral cover in describing the effects of anchoring. The number of overturned colonies was identified as the single most useful indicator of coral reef condition associated with anchoring intensities. The indicator selection framework developed here has the advantages of being transparent, cost efficient, and readily transferable to other types of human activities and management strategies.     

A Proactive Approach Can Make Site Remediation Less Expensive

Without any incentive to clean up a contaminated site, remediation is often delayed until the site owner is compelled to act by regulatory agencies. In such a context, the selected technology is typically the one that will reach the remediation goals as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, this criterion is often met by overly expensive technologies, resulting in high and sometimes unaffordable total remediation costs, leading to a remediation with a negative net benefit. This study examines the effects of time constraint and benefit value on the optimal remediation strategy for a diesel-contaminated site. This strategy is developed using the technico-economic model METEORS, which takes into account the technology’s effectiveness, the uncertainty of the level of contamination, and the possibility of reducing this uncertainty through either an additional characterization (before selecting and applying a technology) or the monitoring of the remediation technology (during its use). Results of simulations with both economic and temporal constraints support a proactive approach to site remediation.     

矿井通风网络解算可视化软件研究

采用面向对象编程语言Visual Basic6.0为开发工具,以Access为后台数据库,开发了具有风机优选功能的矿井通风网络解算软件。该软件承袭了Windows系统应用程序界面直观、交互性好的特点,集矿井通风网络解算、自然风压计算、风机自动选型以及经济断面优化等功能于一体,并辅以强大的数据管理系统,为矿山通风设计和管理工作提供了便利工具。     

PROCEDURES FOR THE EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method of analyzing the nonquantifiable parameters which should be considered in the evaluation of engineering alternatives. The nonquantifiable parameters can include environmental impact, feasibility of implementation, and performance. The method considers rating all the alternatives on the basis of a set of criteria which reflect these parameters. A procedure is discussed for obtaining review and guidance in the evaluation of engineering alternatives from the local elected officials or governing bodies and for obtaining the views and desires of the local communities. This is achieved through the formation of project review committees and an evaluation procedure which allows for the technical rating of alternatives by the engineer and the weighing of the evaluation criteria by the political and social groups. With the growing environmental concern and the high cost of engineering projects, the involvement of the public during the evaluation of engineering projects is becoming increasingly important to the final success of the project.     

Dynamic of functional microbial groups during mesophilic composting of agro-industrial wastes and free-living (N2)-fixing bacteria application

Although several reports are available concerning the composition and dynamics of the microflora during the composting of municipal solid wastes, little is known about the microbial diversity during the composting of agro-industrial refuse. For this reason, the first parts of this study included the quantification of microbial generic groups and of the main functional groups of C and N cycle during composting of agro-industrial refuse. After a generalized decrease observed during the initial phases, a new bacterial growth was observed in the final phase of the process. Ammonifiers and (N₂)-fixing aerobic groups predominated outside of the piles whereas, nitrate-reducing group increased inside the piles during the first 23 days of composting. Ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB), showed an opposite trend of growth since ammonia oxidation decreased with the increase of the nitrite oxidation activity. Pectinolytics, amylolytics and aerobic cellulolytic were present in greater quantities and showed an upward trend in both the internal and external part of the heaps.Several free-living (N₂)-fixing bacteria were molecularly identify as belonging especially to uncommon genera of nitrogen-fixing bacteria as Stenotrophomonas, Xanthomonas, Pseudomonas, Klebsiella, Alcaligenes, Achromobacter and Caulobacter. They were investigated for their ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen to employ as improvers of quality of compost. Some strains of Azotobacter chrococcum and Azotobacter salinestris were also tested. When different diazotrophic bacterial species were added in compost, the increase of total N ranged from 16% to 27% depending on the selected microbial strain being used. Such microorganisms may be used alone or in mixtures to provide an allocation of plant growth promoting rhizobacteria in soil.