厦门市秋冬季节大气汞污染调查

文章采用两次金汞齐一冷原子荧光光谱法对厦门地区秋冬季节大气汞的污染状况作了初步调查分析,结果表明厦门地区大气中汞的浓度平均为11．037ng／m^3,其含量高于北半球大气气态总汞含量的背景值（1．5-2．0ng／m^3）,表明该地区已受到一定程度的大气汞污染;在一定的采样区域,大气汞浓度与温度、太阳辐射量、大气压、空气湿度成正相关,与风速成负相关;气态汞的含量在80％左右,这与该地区的人为活动多有关,与其他地区报道的类似区域情况的汞污染状况相符;工业区,学校实验室周边区域,生产过程中以汞为原料的工厂等附近区域,大气中汞的含量较高,开阔区域的海边含量较低,交通繁忙区域最低（所选采样点与交通要道有一定的距离）,这种浓度分布说明了大气中汞的存在具有区域性特征。     

船舶压载水中生物取样和检测的几个问题

船舶压载水携带的大量生物是造成海洋生物入侵的主要途径之一。文章对国际海事组织通过的压载水性能标准存在的争议,压载水的采样方式,压载水采样的代表性以及检测时活体生物的判定问题进行了论述和探讨。     

Assessment of temporal stability in risk factors of crashes at horizontal curves on rural two-lane undivided highways

Introduction: Safety of horizontal curves on rural two-lane, two-way undivided roadways is not fully explored. This study investigates factors that impact injury severity of such crashes. Method: To achieve the aim of this paper, issues associated with police-reported crash data such as unobserved heterogeneity and temporal stability need to be accounted for. Hence, a mixed logit model was estimated, while heterogeneity in means and variances is investigated by considering four injury severity outcomes for drivers: severe injury, moderate injury, possible injury, and no injury. Crash data for the period between 2011 and 2016 for crashes that occurred in the state of Oregon was analyzed. Temporal stability in factors determining the injury severity was investigated by identifying three time periods through splitting crash data into 2011–2012, 2013–2014, and 2015–2016. Results: Despite some factors affecting injuries in all specified time periods, the values of the marginal effects showed relative differences. The estimation results revealed that some factors increased the risk of being involved in severe injury crashes, including head-on collisions, drunk drivers, failure to negotiate curves, older drivers, and exceeding the speed limits. Conclusions: The hypothesis that attributes of injury severity are temporally stable is rejected. For example, young drivers (30 years old and younger) and middle-aged drivers were found to be temporally instable over time. Practical applications: The findings could help transportation authorities and safety professionals to enhance the safety of horizontal curves through appropriate and effective countermeasures.     

Numerical study on the horizontal stretching effect of ground on high-pressure vapor jets of LNG tank leakage

The objective of this work is to investigate the horizontal stretching effect of ground on high-pressure vapor jet of LNG tank leakage near the ground. A numerical model for leakage jet was developed and several series of leakage scenarios were theoretically analyzed for different heights of the tank orifice, inner pressures and outer temperatures. The results show that the near ground plays an important role in the horizontal transportation of LNG leakage vapor. The corresponding danger distance is surprisingly lengthened because of the horizontal stretching of leakage vapor cloud by the ground nearby, especially for those cases with a lower orifice on tank. It is illustrated that there is an obvious change for the central axis track, gas concentration and velocity of the jet in the far-field during the jet is touching the ground. In addition, the dimensionless analyses on the dependence of gas concentration, velocity and gas concentration on the transportation distance indicated that there were two stages of deflection behaviors of the jet. Finally, the enlarged danger distance by the horizontal stretching for the LNG tank leakage with a low orifice indicated the more dangerous scene of those leakage close on ground. The data and revelation here about the danger area prediction can be an important guide for the emergency management during the LNG tank leakage accidents.     

嵌套式静态采样箱的设计及其在稻田甲烷通量监测中的应用

通过总结得出温室气体静态采样箱设计的基本准则,并以洞庭湖不同湿地类型甲烷排放通量观测为出发点,设计了嵌套式采样箱。该采样箱的优势在于高度和体积可调节,运输和不使用时,顶箱可放入延长箱中不占体积;使用时,顶箱扣在延长箱上增大体积,采样箱高度随延长箱数量的变化而改变。稻田试验性观测发现,洞庭湖区4月早稻甲烷的平均排放通量为10.37mg/(m2·h)。结果表明,应用嵌套式静态采样箱开展湿地甲烷监测结果可靠。但采样操作需在40min内完成,以避免箱体内部环境变化引起甲烷排放不稳定。     

气溶胶在采样管中的沉积特性研究

为了正确评价气溶胶在采样管道中的粒子沉积损失,文章通过实验研究确定了采样管道中粒子沉积与有关参数之间的关系。气溶胶粒子粒径为0.04~8.30μm、采样流量为10~30 L/min、采样管道长度为10~35 m。结果表明,当气溶胶粒径约小于1μm时,穿透率随粒径增大而增加,当气溶胶粒径约大于1μm时;穿透率随粒径增加而减小;气溶胶粒子的穿透率随流速增大而增加;气溶胶粒子的穿透率随采样管长增加而减小。     

Bayesian model-based cluster analysis for predicting macrofaunal communities

To predict macrofaunal community composition from environmental data a two-step approach is often followed: (1) the water samples are clustered into groups on the basis of the macrofauna data and (2) the groups are related to the environmental data, e.g. by discriminant analysis. For the cluster analysis in step 1 many hard, seemingly arbitrary choices have to be made that nevertheless influence the solution (similarity measure, clustering strategy, number of clusters). The stability of the solution is often of concern, e.g. in clustering by the program. In the discriminant analysis of step 2 it can occur that a water sample is misclassified on the basis of the environmental data but on further inspection happens to be a borderline case in the cluster analysis. One would then rather reclassify such a sample and iterate the two steps. Bayesian latent class analysis is a flexible, extendable model-based cluster analysis approach that recently has gained popularity in the statistical literature and that has the potential to address these problems. It allows the macrofauna and environmental data to be modelled and analyzed in a single integrated analysis. An exciting extension is to incorporate in the analysis prior information on the habitat preferences of the macrofauna taxa such as is available in lists of indicator values. The output of the analysis is not a hard assignment of water samples to clusters but a probabilistic (fuzzy) assignment. The number of clusters is determined on the basis of the Bayes factor. A standard feature of the Bayesian method is to make predictions and to assess their uncertainty. We applied this approach to a data set consisting of 70 water samples, 484 macrofauna taxa and four environmental variables for which previously a five cluster solution had been proposed. The standard for Bayesian estimation, the Gibbs sampler, worked fine on a subset with only 12 selected taxa but did not converge on the full set with 484 taxa. This is due to many configurations in which the assignment probabilities are all very close to either 0 or 1. This convergence problem is comparable with the local optima problem in classical cluster optimization algorithms, including the EM algorithm used in Latent Gold, a Windows program for latent class analysis. The convergence problem needs to be solved before the benefits of Bayesian latent class analysis can come to fruition in this application. We discuss possible solutions.     

地累积指数法评价多金属环境质量的方法优化探索:以农业发达地区为例

准确合理的土壤污染评价方法是进行区域性土壤污染评价的前提.将三角模糊数引入地质累积指数法,结合α-截集技术以及Latin Hypercube抽样(LHS)随机模拟方法对研究区重金属含量差异较大的5种不同土壤类型(潮土、风沙土、黄绵土、褐土和新积土)分别进行土壤重金属(Cd、Hg、As、Pb和Cr)累积性评价,能够避免因...     

Load Estimation Method Using Distributions with Covariates: A Comparison with Commonly Used Estimation Methods

Load estimates obtained using an approach based on statistical distributions with parameters expressed as a function of covariates (e.g., streamflow) (distribution with covariates hereafter called DC method) were compared to four load estimation methods: (1) flow‐weighted mean concentration; (2) integral regression; (3) segmented regression (the last two with Ferguson's correction factor); and (4) hydrograph separation methods. A total of 25 datasets (from 19 stations) of daily concentrations of total dissolved solids, nutrients, or suspended particulate matter were used. The selected stations represented a wide range of hydrological conditions. Annual flux errors were determined by randomly generating 50 monthly sample series from daily series. Annual and interannual biases and dispersions were evaluated and compared. The impact of sampling frequency was investigated through the generation of bimonthly and weekly surveys. Interannual uncertainty analysis showed that the performance of the DC method was comparable with those of the other methods, except for stations showing high hydrological variability. In this case, the DC method performed better, with annual biases lower than those characterizing the other methods. Results show that the DC method generated the smallest pollutant load errors when considering a monthly sampling frequency for rivers showing high variability in hydrological conditions and contaminant concentrations.     

Statistical Evaluation of Variables Affecting Occurrence of Hydrocarbons in Aquifers Used for Public Supply,California

The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co‐occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co‐occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.