人类自我科学管理是实现可持续发展的必然选择

现今人口规模的不断膨胀和物质生活水平的日益提高,对资源和环境造成的压力急剧增加。分析了世界现状和可持续发展面临的挑战之后,提出人类要实现可持续发展必须要进行自我科学管理,分别从人类自我定位、对待科技的态度、人口管理、人类消费管理4个方面进行讨论和阐述。人类首先需重新审视自己,进行自我定位;其次要正确对待科技;控制人口数量和转变不合理消费是目前人类自我管理的重要任务,对此提出一些实施对策。     

A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in breast milk of first-time Irish mothers: impact of the 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland

The 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland resulted in elevated concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Irish pork and pork products, due to the consumption of contaminated animal feed by pigs. In order to investigate any resulting impact on the Irish population, these contaminants were measured in pooled breast milk samples from 109 first-time mothers, collected in 2010. A comparison of the results with similar data from 2002 revealed generally lower concentrations of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in the 2010 samples, confirming the declining trend reported by many authors. Contaminant concentration levels for both 2002 and 2010 were generally slightly lower than those reported internationally, with a mean combined PCDD/F and PCB WHO-TEQ of 9.66 pg g⁻¹ fat, for an overall pooled sample of milk from 2010. An apparent slight increase in PCDFs was observed between 2002 and 2010 (from 2.73 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat to 3.21 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat), with the main contributory congener being 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF. While it cannot be totally discounted that the slight increase in 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF and in the overall PCDF WHO-TEQ in breast milk could be attributable to consumption of Irish pork during the 2008 incident, we consider that it is more likely that this was due to other factors, including the predominantly urban/industrial sampling locations for the 2010 samples, compared to 2002.     

基于伤害监测的产品安全监管模式研究

鉴于缺陷产品给消费者造成的人身伤害日渐增多,通过分析产品伤害流行病学的模型,提出采用不同的干预措施,包括预警、召回、完善标准和法律等手段,及时消除由缺陷产品引起的各种伤害,而这有赖于对大量的缺陷信息的收集和分析。国外一些发达国家建立的产品伤害监测系统,通过样本医院收集由产品缺陷导致的伤害事故,被证明是一种有效的信息收集手段。为此,我国有关部门开始着手建立产品伤害监测系统的前期研究工作,并进行试点研究,取得大量一手资料。建议借鉴国外的成功经验,尽快建立适合我国国情的产品伤害监测系统,并开展有关重点产品的伤害监测活动。     

类固醇雌激素分析方法研究进展

类固醇雌激素因其对野生动物、人类健康及生态环境安全造成危害而受到全世界的普遍关注,并成为环境科学和生态毒理学研究的重点和热点之一.针对4种典型的类固醇雌激素(雌激素酮、17-β-雌二醇、雌三醇和17-α-乙炔基雌二醇),对其羟基和酮基衍生化技术、水和固体样品的前处理技术及仪器检测方法进行了综述,总结了类固醇雌激素分析方法的研究动态和进展.     

QuEChERS: a sample preparation for extraction of carbaryl from rat feces

Carbamate compounds are an important group of cholinesterase inhibitors. There is a need for creating awareness regarding the risks of the inadequate carbamate use in the residential areas due to potential adverse human effects. Carbaryl is a commonly used pesticide worldwide. A simple, fast, and high-throughput method was developed employing liquid chromatography with fluorescence detector to determine carbaryl residues in rat feces. The extraction was performed by using a rapid, easy, cheap, effective, reliable, and safe (QuEChERS) method, using acetonitrile as the extracting solvent. The parameters for the performance of the extraction method were optimized, such as ratio of mass of sample per volume of extraction solvent, QuEChERS content, and cleanup columns. Linear response was obtained for all calibration curves (solvent and matrix-matched) over the established concentration range (5–500 μg/L) with a correlation coefficients higher than 0.999. The achieved recovery was 97.9% with relative standard deviation values of 1.1% (n = 4) at 167 μg/kg fortified concentration level and the limits of detection and quantification were 27.7 and 92.3 µg/kg, respectively.     

A data-driven narratives skeleton pattern recognition from accident reports dataset for human-and-organizational-factors analysis

Accidents in the process industry involve several interacting factors, including human and organizational factors (HOFs). A long-standing obstacle to HOFs analysis is lack of data. Accident reports are an essential data source to learn from the past and contain HOFs-related data, but they are usually unstructured text in a not standardized format. Some studies have explored the extraction of information automatically from accident reports based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. However, they were not dedicated to HOFs. Risk communication is considered an essential pillar in safety and risk science. This research develops a HOFs-focused risk communication framework based on the NLP techniques that can support risk assessment and mitigation. The proposed approach automatically extracts the target groups oriented “Who, When, Where, Why” (4Ws) information from accident reports.This framework was applied to explore the eMARS database. The results show that the “4Ws” skeleton of narratives has appreciated performance in pattern recognition and holistic information analysis. The graphical representation interfaces are designed to display the features of HOFs-related accidents, which can better be communicated to the sharp-end operators and decision-makers.     

Detection of dicofol and related pesticides in human breast milk from China, Korea and Japan

Previously, we demonstrated that the concentrations of DDTs were greater in breast milk collected from Chinese mothers than from Japanese and Korean mothers. To investigate dicofol as a possible source of the DDTs in human breast milk, we collected breast milk samples from 2007 to 2009 in China (Beijing), Korea (Seoul, Busan) and Japan (Sendai, Takarazuka and Takayama). Using these breast milk samples, we quantified the concentrations of dichlorobenzophenone, a pyrolysis product of dicofol (simply referred to as dicofol hereafter), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs) using GC-MS. Overall, 12 of 14 pooled breast milk samples from 210 mothers contained detectable levels of dicofol (>0.1 ng g⁻¹ lipid). The geometric mean concentration of dicofol in the Japanese breast milk samples was 0.3 ng g⁻¹ lipid and significantly lower than that in Chinese (9.6 ng g⁻¹ lipid) or Korean breast milk samples (1.9 ng g⁻¹ lipid) (p < 0.05 for each). Furthermore, the ΣDDT levels in breast milk from China were 10-fold higher than those from Korea and Japan. The present results strongly suggest the presence of extensive emission sources of both dicofol and DDTs in China. However, exposure to dicofol cannot explain the large exposure of Chinese mothers to DDTs because of the trace levels of dicofol in the ΣDDTs. In the present study, dicofol was confirmed to be detectable in human breast milk. This is the first report to identify dicofol in human samples.     

环境样品中痕量锰的催化动力学测定法

对环境样品中痕量锰的催化动力学测定方法进行简要评述，引述文献１６篇。     

Tree and Shrub Expansion Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko,Sweden

Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32– to 34-year period, in three 50 × 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009–2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (≥3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.