长江口没冒沙演变过程及其对水库工程的响应

研究南槽没冒沙演变规律,可以为筑库引淡蓄水工程建设提供科学依据。根据该海区近百年来各个时期的海图和20年来的实测水文泥沙等资料以及2003、2004年的现场观测数据,探讨了没冒沙的形成及形成后的演变过程。研究表明：没冒沙的形成和发育经历了局部边滩冲刷、边滩沙嘴发育和沙脊形成3个阶段;近半个世纪来,沙体中轴位置在稳定强劲的涨落潮流作用下呈现出西北—东南走向的良好的稳定性,具有潮流脊性质。而蓄淡水库工程建设将有可能使南槽成为适应进出水沙量的新型河槽。     

Mitigating Impact of Devils Lake Flooding on the Sheyenne River Sulfate Concentration

Devils Lake is a terminal lake located in northeast North Dakota. Because of its glacial origin and accumulated salts from evaporation, the lake has a high concentration of sulfate compared to the surrounding water bodies. From 1993 to 2011, Devils Lake water levels rose by ~10 m, which flooded surrounding communities and increased the chance of an overspill to the Sheyenne River. To control the flooding, the State of North Dakota constructed two outlets to pump the lake water to the river. However, the pumped water has raised concerns about of water quality degradation and potential flooding risk of the Sheyenne River. To investigate these perceived impacts, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for the Sheyenne River and it was linked to a coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2 model that was developed for Devils Lake in a previous study. While the current outlet schedule has attempted to maintain the total river discharge within the confines of a two‐year flood (36 m³/s), our simulation from 2012 to 2018 revealed that the diversion increased the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration from an average of 125 to >750 mg/L. Furthermore, a conceptual optimization model was developed with a goal of better preserving the water quality of the Sheyenne River while effectively mitigating the flooding of Devils Lake. The optimal solution provides a “win–win” outlet management that maintains the efficiency of the outlets while reducing the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration to ≤600 mg/L.     

基于超效率DEA模型的三峡库区生态效率评价及空间演化格局分析

本文基于2010—2017年的统计数据,首先采用超效率DEA模型对三峡库区26个区县的生态效率进行测算,然后运用空间自相关分析方法对三峡库区生态效率的演化格局进行了实证分析,探索三峡库区生态效率的时空动态演变特征。研究表明:2010—2017年三峡库区生态效率平均水平处于0.5601～1.1920,整体呈现波动性变化趋势,生态效率在一定程度上有所改善,但是整体水平仍然较低;从区域层面看,各个区县间生态效率水平不平衡,空间分布上呈现"西高东低"的非均衡性特征。局部空间自相关分析表明,三峡库区2010—2017年集聚性呈逐渐减弱态势,空间异质性逐渐增加,整体的生态效率差异变大。最后依据实证研究分析结果,本文对如何提升三峡库区生态效率提出了相应的政策建议。     

官厅水库入库断面水质多指标评价与演变特征分析

水体质量状况及其污染特征是流域水污染防治规划和治理措施制定的前提和基础。采用主成分分析和层次聚类分析等多元统计分析方法,选取溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、化学需氧量等10个不同类型的监测指标,综合评价了官厅水库入库断面八号桥2006—2017年丰水期和枯水期水质年际变化特征,识别了不同阶段关键污染指标。结果表明:各年份丰水期(9月)大多数水质指标均优于枯水期(5月),特别是粪大肠菌群和氨氮,但总磷和高锰酸盐指数的差异较小。根据水质指标年际变化情况,可将研究期分为污染严重阶段(2006—2007年)、污染改善阶段(2008—2015年)和污染全面好转阶段(2016—2017年)。大部分水质指标呈现逐年好转的趋势,特别是粪大肠菌群、氨氮和五日生化需氧量,但总磷仍是官厅水库入库河流的重要污染指标。     

水库抗旱调度分期特征确定方法研究

为在一定程度上减轻流域干旱损失,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部提出旱限水位的概念,并开展水库抗旱调度,降低干旱影响程度。旱限水位是水库低水位运行的控制性水位,其合理设置对提高区域水资源利用率意义重大,而水文气象特征在年内的阶段性变化要求基于旱限水位的水库管理应适应其变化特征。此次研究提出水库抗旱调度分期的确定方法,采用核主成分分析法提取指标的非线性特征,结合熵权法赋予指标权重后利用Fisher最优分割法对干旱的年内阶段性变化进行划分。以黄河流域刘家峡和小浪底水库为例,分期结果刘家峡水库分3期为:7月至9月,10月至3月,4月至6月;小浪底水库分3期为:7月至10月,11月至3月,4月至6月。     

Fish mercury increase in Lago Manso, a new hydroelectric reservoir in tropical Brazil

It has been frequently demonstrated that mercury (Hg) concentrations in fish rise in newly constructed hydroelectric reservoirs in the Northern Hemisphere. In the present work, we studied whether similar effects take place also in a tropical upland reservoir during impoundment and discuss possible causes and implications. Total Hg concentrations in fish and several soil and water parameters were determined before and after flooding at Rio Manso hydroelectric power plant in western Brazil. The Hg concentrations in soil and sediment were within the background levels in the region (22-35 ng g(-1) dry weight). There was a strong positive correlation between Hg and carbon and sulphur in sediment. Predatory fish had total Hg concentrations ranging between 70 and 210 ng g(-1) f.w. 7 years before flooding and between 72 and 755 ng g(-1) f.w. during flooding, but increased to between 216 and 938 ng g(-1) f.w. in the piscivorous and carnivorous species Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, cachara, and Salminus brasiliensis, dourado, 3 years after flooding. At the same time, concentrations of organic carbon in the water increased and oxygen concentrations decreased, indicating increased decomposition and anoxia as contributing to the increased Hg concentrations in fish. The present fish Hg concentrations in commonly consumed piscivorous species are a threat to the health of the population dependent on fishing in the dam and downstream river for sustenance. Mercury exposure can be reduced by following fish consumption recommendations until fish Hg concentrations decrease to a safe level.     

三峡库区水环境多环芳烃和邻苯二甲酸酯类有机污染物健康风险评价

为研究三峡库区水环境中持久性有机污染物(POPs)对人体健康产生的潜在危害风险,在介绍健康风险评价方法的基础上,建立了水环境健康风险评价模型,根据三峡库区水质监测资料对水源水主要持久性有机物多环芳烃和邻苯二甲酸酯类污染进行健康风险评价. 结果表明,在所评价断面中,长江和嘉陵江汇合的寸滩断面污染较严重,健康危害的风险相对较大. 水源水6种持久性有机污染物由饮水途径所致健康危害的个人年风险为2.79×10-10～4.44×10-13 a-1,按年风险大小依次为DEHP＞DBP＞Pyr＞NA＞FLA＞DEP;有机污染物对健康危害的年总风险仅为3.70×10-10 a-1,远低于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受值(5.0×10-5 a-1). 三峡库区水体中6种POPs污染所致的健康危害年风险度目前还处于很低水平,但应引起管理部门的重视.      

回归分析综合模型在农用地定级估价中的应用

为了使农用地级别划分和基准地价评估真正统一，以黄金坪水电站水库淹没区为例，将淹没区农用地划分为119个定级估价单元，在Arcmap／info，SPSS软件技术平台上，用回归分析法建立水库淹没区农用地定级因素与纯收益之间关系的综合模型，划分农用地级别，然后用收益还原法计算各级别基准地价。结果为：估算纯收益与实际纯收益间绝对误差为0．05元／m^2，相对误差为13．85％，相关系数达0．86；一级地价23元／m^2，二级地价19元／m^2，三级地价15元／m。，四级地价12元／m^2。表明：回归分析综合模型在淹没区农用地定级估价中取得了较理想的效果，使定级估价数据资料直接共享，省去了专家确定权重的难关，适合水库淹没区农用地市场不发育的现状。     

模糊物元评价方法在水库移民安置区优选中的应用

本文在模糊物元分析的基础上,结合模糊相似贴近度的概念,将基于模糊相似贴近度的模糊物元分析应用到水库移民安置区优选中,并根据GIS中图层叠加方法,在多种约束条件下对备选水库移民安景区进行初步的筛选,满足基本约束条件的要求,减轻了初选工作量.在指标权重方面,采用层次分析法和熵值法相结合的方法计算评判指标权重,提高了对移民安置区评判准确度和可信度.最后,将该优化选择模型应用于南水北调工程丹江口库区移民试点优选外迁安置区中,从应用的过程和对计算结果的分析来看,该方法在实践中效果较好,并可推广应用到整个库区外迁移民安置过程中,实现了移民淹没区和安置区优化配置,确保了移民"搬得出、稳得住、逐步能致富"的目标.     

Soil erosion vulnerability under scenarios of climate land-use changes after the development of a large reservoir in a semi-arid area

Climate and land-use/cover changes (LUCC) influence soil erosion vulnerability in the semi-arid region of Alqueva, threatening the reservoir storage capacity and sustainability of the landscape. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study was to investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. A multi-agent system combining Markov cellular automata with multi-criteria evaluation was used to investigate LUCC scenarios according to delineated regional strategies. Forecasting scenarios indicated that the intensive agricultural area as well as the sparse and xerophytic vegetation and rainfall-runoff erosivity would increase, consequently causing the soil erosion to rise from 1.78 Mg ha^?1 to 3.65 Mg ha^?1 by 2100. A backcasting scenario was investigated by considering the application of soil conservation practices that would decrease the soil erosion considerably to an average of 2.27 Mg ha^?1. A decision support system can assist stakeholders in defining restrictive practices and developing conservation plans, contributing to control the reservoir's siltation.