PROJECTED INCREASES IN MUNICIPAL WATER USE IN THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO CO2-INDUCED CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Two scenarios of CO₂-induced climatic change are used to estimate changes in water use for a number of municipalities in the Great Lakes region of Canada and the United States. Both scenarios, based on General Circulation Models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), project warmer temperatures for the region. Using regression models based on monthly potential evapotranspiration for individual cities, it is projected that annual per capita water use will increase by a small amount, which will probably have only a marginal effect on water supplies in the Great Lakes basin. This method could also be used to assess the potential impacts of CO₂-induced climatic change on water use by the agriculture and power sectors, as well as the effectiveness of water policy initiatives, such as price changes. More work is needed to project water use during peak periods (warm dry spells), which may occur more frequently in a 2 × CO₂ climate in this region.     

Decreased carbon and nutrient input to boreal lakes from particulate organic matter following riparian clear-cutting

The plankton communities of oligotrophic Canadian Shield lakes are strongly regulated by the allochthonous supply of total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), a proportion of both of which originate from particulate organic matter. Although decreased inputs of allochthonous leaf litter have been documented for small streams whose riparian forests have been removed, no such data exist for boreal lakes. Through estimates of airborne litter input from forested and clear-cut shorelines and laboratory measurements of concentrations released from leaf leachate, we determined that riparian deforestation resulted in reductions of DOC from 17.8 to 0.4 g/m shoreline/yr and of TP from 2.9 to 0.3 g/m shoreline/yr. Previous predictive models indicate that such reductions may be substantial enough to decrease basic metabolic processes of lake plankton communities by as much as 9% in primary production and 17% in respiration.     

Explaining human settlement patterns in a recreational lake district: Vilas County,Wisconsin, USA

Lakeshore development in Vilas County, northern Wisconsin (USA) is heterogeneous, ranging from lakes that are surrounded by homes and commercial establishments to lakes that have no buildings on their shorelines. Development in this recreational area has increased, and since the 1960s over half of new homes have been built on the lakeshore. We examined building density around lakes in relationship to 11 variables, including in-lake, shoreline, and social characteristics. Buildings in many parts of northern Wisconsin tend to be concentrated around shorelines; in Vilas County 61% of all medium-sized buildings (our proxy for residential development) on private land were ≤100 m of a lake. The probability of development on a lake was largely related to lake surface area, with larger, more accessible lakes showing a higher probability of development. Building density along shorelines varied with travel cost, lake surface area, presence of wetlands, and extent of public land ownership. Building density was greater on larger, more accessible lakes that were surrounded by forest (as opposed to wetlands) and public lands. Gaining a more precise understanding of human settlement patterns can help direct planning and resource protection efforts to lakes most likely to experience future development.     

TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON GREAT LAKES WATER BALANCE STUDIES1

ABSTRACT. Beginning of month water temperature profiles are estimated for each lake. These water temperature profiles along with surface water temperatures are used to determine the effects of thermal expansion and contraction of water on the net basin supply values obtained from water balance studies using end of month lake levels. It is demonstrated that net basin supply values (equivalent to precipitation on the lake minus the evaporation from the lake plus the runoff into the lake) obtained from water balance studies without accounting for the thermal expansion and contraction of water may be in error by as much as 100 percent during some months for each lake.     

Exploring the effects of multiple management objectives and exotic species on great lakes food webs and contaminant dynamics

A simulation model was developed to describe linkages among fish food web, nutrient cycling, and contaminant processes in the southern basin of Lake Michigan. The model was used to examine possible effects of management actions and an exotic zooplankter (Bythotrephes) on Lake Michigan food web and contaminant dynamics. The model predicts that contaminant concentrations in salmonines will decrease by nearly 20% ifBythotrephes successfully establishes itself in the lake. The model suggests that this decrease will result from lowered transfer efficiencies within the food web and increased flux of contaminants to the hypolimnion. The model also indicates that phosphorus management will have little effect on contaminant concentrations in salmonines. The modeling exercise helped identify weaknesses in the data base (e.g., incomplete information on contaminant loadings and on the biomass, production, and ecological efficiencies of dominant organisms) that should be corrected in order to make reliable management decisions.     

Evaluation of biological water purification functions of inland lakes using an aquatic ecosystem model

An effective measure to cope with eutrophication of lakes is to remove nutrients that can cause algal blooming by taking advantage of natural water purification processes. Here the term “purification” is defined, in a wide sense, as the potential role of a water body to contribute to the reduction of pollutants and thus controlling eutrophication. Also regarded as a kind of ecological regulating services, biological purification involves various processes concerning seasonal nutrient fixation, such as uptake by aquatic macrophytes, biofouling onto foliage substrates, feeding by organisms in higher trophic level, and eternal loss or removal of substance from the water. In order to evaluate the water purification ability, a numerical lake ecosystem model highlighting the role of macrophyte colonies in the shore zone was developed and applied to Lakes Suwa, Kasumi and Biwa, as well as five small lakes attached to Lake Biwa.     

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Organochlorine Contamination and Bill Deformities in Double-Crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax Auritus) from the Canadian Great Lakes

The levels of organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in the eggs of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) from the Canadian Great Lakes, Lake Nipigon and Lake-of-the-Woods were monitored between 1970 and 1995. PCBs and p,p-DDE were present at the highest concentrations. Significant declines in OC concentrations on the Great Lakes were observed over this period for Lake Ontario, Lake Superior, Georgian Bay and North Channel but not Lake Erie where levels remained relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the greatest OC levels were generally observed in cormorant eggs from nesting sites in Georgian Bay and North Channel of Lake Huron. Between 1984 and 1995 mirex and PCB levels were consistently highest in samples from Lakes Ontario and Erie, respectively. Similar levels of PCDDs and PCDFs were observed from all regions of the Canadian Great Lakes in 1989. In general, OC levels in cormorant eggs between 1984-95 were ranked as follows: Lake Erie>Lake Ontario Lake Superior>Lake Huron. In 1995, eggshell thickness in Canadian Great Lakes cormorants, ranged from 0.423 to 0.440 mm and was on average only 2.3% thinner than pre-DDT era values. Between 1988 and 1996, 31 cormorant chicks with bill defects were observed at 16 different colonies (21% of all colonies surveyed) in Lakes Ontario and Superior, Georgian Bay and North Channel, and the main body of Lake Huron. No bill deformities were observed at reference sites in northwestern Ontario (Lake Nipigon and Lake-of-the-Woods). For the period 1988-96, the prevalence of bill defects in cormorant chicks (0.0 to 2.8/10,000 chicks) did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) among most regions in the Canadian Great Lakes. Georgian Bay was the only region to show a significant decrease in the prevalence of bill defects between the periods 1979-87 and 1988-95.     

A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.     

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the New York State Canal and Hudson River Systems and the Great Lakes Basin: An Economic and Environmental Assessment

A total of 154 aquatic alien species have invaded the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems and a total of 162 aquatic species have invaded the Great Lakes Basin. Some of these invasive species are causing significant damage and control costs in both aquatic ecosystems. In the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems, the nonindigenous species are causing an estimated 500 million dollars in economic losses each year. The economic and environmental situation in the Great Lakes Basin is far more serious from nonindigenous species, with losses estimated to be about 5.7 billion dollars per year. Commercial and sport fishing suffer the most from the biological invasions, with about 400 million dollars in losses reported for the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems and 4.5 billion dollars in losses reported for the Great Lakes Basin.