Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.     

Translating habitat class to land cover to map area of habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of habitat (AOH) is defined as the “habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range” and is calculated by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme provides information on species habitat associations, and typically unvalidated expert opinion is used to match habitat to land-cover classes, which generates a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We developed a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land cover based on point locality data for 6986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class or classes assigned to each species occurring there. Then, we modeled each land-cover class as a function of IUCN habitat with (SSG, using) logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association between each habitat and land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published translation table based on expert knowledge. We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH as binary presence or absence, it was necessary to apply a threshold of association. This threshold can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. Some habitats (e.g., forest and desert) were assigned to land-cover classes with more confidence than others (e.g., wetlands and artificial). The data-driven translation model and expert knowledge performed equally well, but the model provided greater standardization, objectivity, and repeatability. Furthermore, our approach allowed greater flexibility in the use of the results and uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be modified for regional examinations and different taxonomic groups.     

Spatial-econometric analysis of attraction and repulsion of private conservation by public reserves

It is difficult for public agencies to make optimal reserve-site selections without knowing how new public reserves might influence the configuration of private conservation. Private land trusts protect much land in the USA, but little is known about how private groups respond to conservation decisions made by other conservation agents. To fill that gap, we analyze township-level spatial data on conservation in California, Illinois, and Massachusetts to explore relationships between the location of private and public conservation land. Using linear spatial-econometric models and Bayesian spatial probit models, we find evidence that private-protected acres are clustered together in space. In California, it appears that private land conservation is attracted towards places where the government has reserves. In Illinois and Massachusetts, however, it appears that private conservation shifts away from townships with government reserves due to a mixture of spatial repulsion and simple acreage displacement.     

A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

Conservation Threats Due to Human-Caused Increases in Fire Frequency in Mediterranean-Climate Ecosystems

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas.     

INFLUENCES OF WATERSHED,RIPARIAN‐CORRIDOR,AND REACH‐SCALE CHARACTERISTICS ON AQUATIC BIOTA IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate analyses and correlations revealed strong relations between watershed and riparian‐corridor land cover, and reach‐scale habitat versus fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages in 38 warmwater streams in eastern Wisconsin. Watersheds were dominated by agricultural use, and ranged in size from 9 to 71 km² Watershed land cover was summarized from satellite‐derived data for the area outside a 30‐m buffer. Riparian land cover was interpreted from digital orthophotos within 10‐, 10‐to 20‐, and 20‐to 30‐m buffers. Reach‐scale habitat, fish, and macroinvertebrates were collected in 1998 and biotic indices calculated. Correlations between land cover, habitat, and stream‐quality indicators revealed significant relations at the watershed, riparian‐corridor, and reach scales. At the watershed scale, fish diversity, intolerant fish and EPT species increased, and Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI) decreased as percent forest increased. At the riparian‐corridor scale, EPT species decreased and HBI increased as riparian vegetation became more fragmented. For the reach, EPT species decreased with embeddedness. Multivariate analyses further indicated that riparian (percent agriculture, grassland, urban and forest, and fragmentation of vegetation), watershed (percent forest) and reach‐scale characteristics (embeddedness) were the most important variables influencing fish (IBI, density, diversity, number, and percent tolerant and insectivorous species) and macroinvertebrate (HBI and EPT) communities.     

INTEGRATING DEMOGRAPHIC AND LANDSAT (TM) DATA AT A WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: Recurrent calls for integrated resource management urge that an understanding of human activities and populations be incorporated into natural resource research, management, and protection efforts. In this paper, we hypothesize that watersheds can be a valuable geography for organizing an inquiry into the relationship between humans and the environment, and we present a framework for conducting such efforts. The framework is grounded in the emerging field of landscape ecology and incorporates demographic theory and data. Demography has been advanced by technological capabilities associated with the 1990 Census. Employing Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, we couple Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) land cover data with census‐derived housing density data to demonstrate the operation of our framework and its utility for better understanding human‐landscape interactions. In our investigation of the Kickapoo Watershed and two sub‐ watersheds, located in southwestern Wisconsin, we identify relationships between landscape composition and the distribution and social structure of human populations. Our findings offer insight into the interplay between people and biophysical systems.     

Acidic bioleaching of heavy metals from sewage sludge

The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the use of controlled bio-acidification prior to land application as a decontamination process to remove heavy metals from sludge. The sulfur-oxidizing bacteria were naturally available in the sludge samples and were activated by providing sulfur and aeration at 28°C–30°C. Activation resulted in bio-acidification to pH 2 within 5–11 days. Successive inoculation of fresh sludges with 5% acidified samples reduced the acidification time to 2–3 days in most samples. Bio-acidification resulted in dissolving significant quantities of heavy metals from all sludge types tested. The maximum solubilization results were: 86%–97% for Ni; 48%–98% for Pb; 26%–71% for Cr; 18%–91% for Zn; 16%–90% for Cu; 7%–60% for Cd. Limited metal solubilization results were observed in the various control samples that accompanied the bio-acidified samples. The leaching results in the control samples were limited to 2%–19% for Ni, 0%–7% for Pb, 0%–5% for Cr, 0.3%–4% for Zn, 0.2%–4% for Cu and 0%–3% for Cd. The results confirmed that Ni and Pb were the easiest metals to dissolve from the various sludge types. On the other hand, the lowest solubilization results were observed for Cu and Cd, and moderate solubilization results were achieved for Cr. The bio-acidification process resulted in moderate gains in terms of improving the suitability of tested sludges for land application. Received: April 19, 1999 / Accepted: November 4, 1999     

土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展

随着社会的不断进步和人口的迅速膨胀,土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程产生了重大影响,其研究已经成为国际热点问题和前沿领域。论文首先分析了LUCC水文效应的研究方法,然后从土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力方面:造林与毁林、城市化过程与农业开发活动以及水土保持等,概述了LUCC水文效应的研究进展。综合分析表明:关于城市化过程的水文影响研究,一般认为,在城市化快速发展的驱动下,不透水面积大量增加,改变了水量平衡状况,造成入渗减少,洪峰流量增大,但不同地区城市化发展程度的不同使得水文效应的表现也不相同;水土保持水文效应的研究一般认为,水土保持通过植树造林、种草、修建梯田、淤地坝等措施,使得区域/流域下垫面覆盖状况发生了很大的改变,造成年径流和洪峰流量减少,而使入渗和枯季径流增加,但因地理位置和气象条件等方面的差异,不同地区水土保持产生的水文影响也有所差别;造林与毁林、农业开发活动对水文过程的影响则因研究尺度、区域位置、气象条件、研究对象等因素的影响出现了较大的差异。因此,需考虑多方面因素的影响,正确评价土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应,为水土资源的合理配置和可持续利用提供科学依据。     

失地农民土地权益流失的经济学分析

城市扩张速度的加快带来越来越多的农民丧失土地,从而引发的农民土地权益流失．这与我国“一切与农业为本,一切为农民着想”的扶农政策想违背,为解决这一问题,笔者从经济学角度探讨失地农民土地权益流失的原因,图1,参5．