1995～2000年河西走廊土地利用变化研究

目前,人类面临的许多环境问题都与土地利用/覆被变化有关。利用1995和2000年两个时期的Landsat5的4、3、2(RGB)波段合成影像的解译结果,采用中国科学院资源环境数据库中的全国1∶100000土地资源利用分类系统,基于GIS软件平台ArcInfo7.1中文版对河西走廊近5年来的土地利用变化进行了研究。结果表明,近5年来,河西走廊发生了大规模的土地利用变化:①土地利用类型斑块数量和总边缘长度基本呈增加之势,表明研究区内景观的破碎程度增加;②土地利用结构变化表现出耕地、林地和建设用地有明显增加,水域、草地和未利用地都呈减少趋势,反映出区域城镇化进程的加快和生态环境恶化的趋势;③土地利用变化的区域差异明显,表现为地处河西走廊西段的酒(泉)嘉(峪关)地区以耕地、林地、水域和建设用地增加,未利用地和草地减少为主要变化特点,走廊中段的张掖市以耕地、林地和建设用地增加,草地、水域和未利用地减少为主要变化特点,走廊东段的武(威)金(昌)地区以耕地和建设用地增加,草地和水域减少为主要变化特点。     

气候变化下中国粮食和水资源的风险分析

介绍了全球气候变化对环境经济影响的复杂性研究的基本框架及模型,给出了用这些模型对中国经济安全模拟的结果。结果表明,全球气候变化条件下,若不考虑不确定性,中国的粮食安全是可以保证的;若考虑不确定性,则在最严重的情况下,中国未来的粮食生产存在7％－8％的缺口。采用最大强度开源的方法,在全球气候变化和保持原有产业结构的条件下,要实现我国2030年的经济目标是不行的。但是,通过调整产业结构,降低单位产出水耗,在保证水资源安全的条件下则是可行的。     

Sensitivity of the Structural Characteristics of Tree Rings to Climatic Changes in Different Climatypes of Scotch Pine

Radial increment and tree-ring structure were studied in the progenies of 16 climatypes growing in the southern taiga subzone. The coefficients of correlation between tree-ring parameters of the local and other climatypes were as high as 0.7–0.9, and the synchronism coefficients were higher than 0.7. Climatypes of northern origin were an exception. The sensitivity of the parameters of the tree-ring late wood decreased with an increase in the latitude at which the seeds for establishing the cultures were collected. Estimation of Euclidean distances in the space of tree-ring parameters showed that the northern climatypes differed from the southern taiga types by no more than 15%. The climatypes from the middle taiga and the forest–steppe exhibited smaller differences (10–11%).     

大别山区生境质量时空特征及自然-人为因素驱动机制

大别山区是中国南北地理生态过渡带东延余脉,山地系统表现出高度的异质性和敏感易变性,识别山地生境质量的空间特征对揭示自然和人为因素的时空驱动机制及差异具有重要指示意义.基于PLUS-InVEST以及地理探测器方法,分析大别山区2000~2020年生境质量的时空动态变化及驱动机制,并对2030年土地利用和生境质量进行多情景模拟预测.2000~2020年,区内土地利用类型以耕地（50%~54%）和林地（42%~45%）为主,荒地（2%~4%）面积占比最低,大别山区耕地变化最大,面积减少2 311.45 km²,林地和建设用地次之,面积分别增加1 431.37 km²和924.52 km²,灌木和荒地的变化较小,面积分别减少7.72 km²和19.10 km²;大别山区的生境质量与海拔高度呈正相关,中东部生境质量较高,北部和南部生境质量较差;2000~2010年生境质量均值从0.594上升到0.608,到2020年下降到0.603,生境质量出现了先上升后下降的趋势.地理探测器结果表明,影响大别山区生境质量的主要驱动因素是地形起伏度、土地利用强度和海拔,NDVI的影响随着时间逐渐增强.2030年生境质量的预测结果显示,4种发展情景下,区域内整体生境质量仍然呈现下降的趋势,并且在生态保护情景下,依旧呈现降低的趋势,只是降低的速率减小.研究结果可为大别山区未来土地利用类型空间规划提供优化策略.     

洱海沉积物中溶解性有机氮季节性变化

选取洱海10个表层沉积物样品,研究不同季节DON（溶解性有机氮）和易分解组分DFAA（游离氨基酸）的含量变化. 结果表明:①洱海沉积物中w(DON)在10.41~59.58 mg/kg之间,平均值为27.43 mg/kg,约占w(TDN)(溶解性总氮质量分数)的40%,w(TN)的6%,其季节性变化呈春季>冬季>夏季>秋季的趋势,各季节洱海不同湖区均呈南部>北部>中部的特点;②洱海沉积物中w(DFAA)在4.11~9.89 mg/kg之间,平均值为5.96 mg/kg,约占w(DON)的22%,占w(TDN)的9%,季节性变化呈秋季相对较高、冬春次之、夏季相对较少的趋势,区域性变化呈南北高、中间低的特点,污染较严重的区域沉积物中w(DFAA)较高;③作为沉积物活性氮重要成分,w(DON)和w(DFAA)的季节性变化明显,对湖泊氮代谢有重要影响,在水生植物旺盛区域尤为明显. 在洱海富营养化治理中,除了TN,更应关注DON在湖泊氮循环及其富营养化中的作用.      

Past,present and future of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) and the incentive it obtained from Land-Use Planning (LUP)

This paper tells the story about the development of Quantitative Risk Assessment, how it was conceptualized in the early 1970s in the nuclear industry, how it was employed within the chemical industry soon after, and what its status is today. The different purposes of QRA are explained, and we elaborate on one of the purposes, that is, Land-Use Planning. The role of Professor Ben Ale, as a process safety pioneer, is discussed throughout the history. We finally provide some on-going state-of-the-art research and projects to further improve QRA approaches, and we sketch the future of QRA and its relation with LUP.     

洱海入湖河流水体悬浮颗粒物有机碳氮来源特征

以洱海主要入湖河流水体悬浮颗粒物为研究对象,运用稳定同位素技术,研究了不同季节、不同河流水体悬浮颗粒物中有机碳、氮的来源,探讨了其与流域环境和人类活动之间的关系. 结果表明:①入湖河流水体悬浮颗粒物δ13C的离散程度为夏季<秋季<冬季<春季,变化范围分别为-25.1‰~-16.9‰、-30.0‰~-10.7‰、-20.9‰~-11.0‰和-28.6‰~-14.4‰;δ15N的离散程度为冬季>夏季>春季>秋季,变化范围分别为-0.5‰~8.8‰、5.4‰~10.6‰、3.4‰~7.9‰和6.2‰~8.7‰. ②入湖河流水体悬浮颗粒物有机质的来源,春季以陆源C₃植物和自生有机质为主,并且C₃植物来源的有机质贡献呈逐渐增大趋势;夏季主要来源于陆源C₃植物;秋季仍以陆源C₃植物和水生植物的混合来源为主,但水生植物来源有机质比例有所上升;冬季则以陆源C₃、C₄植物和水生植物来源有机质混合来源为主. ③入湖河流水体悬浮颗粒物中的氮,春季主要来源于土壤流失和水生植物残体,并且土壤流失氮比例逐渐升高;夏季主要来源于土壤流失;秋季来源于土壤流失、化学肥料和水生植物死亡的共同作用;冬季来源于化学肥料、土壤流失和水生植物,并且化学肥料带来的氮比例有所上升.      

Solubility of anthracene in complex solvent systems

A very extensive and effective research in the fields of classical and molecular cytogenetics of cancer cells, during the past 10 years, has produced a rather concrete picture of the events and mechanisms rendering a normal cell a malignant one: Mutational changes in the control of so‐called cellular oncogenes play a fundamental role in cell transformation and tumor progression. These oncogenes are highly conservative and, therefore, important genes normally coding for a series of specific proteins particularly involved in growth control and differentiation processes.

The most important alterations of these genes are: (1) Point mutations (e.g. base transitions) in essential base pairs of the respective proto‐oncogenes causing an uncontrolled expression of the latter, (2) translocations of specific chromosomal segments resulting in transfer of a proto‐oncogene from its normal (controlled) location into the area of highly active genes and by that in its activation, (3) amplification of DNA sequences including proto‐oncogenes which also can cause their over‐expression, (4) insertion of retroviral oncogenes into the DNA, (5) point mutations or deletions in “control genes” rendering the respective gene mutation homozygous or hemizygous.

All these events are mutations in the strict sense the mutageneticist applies to the endpoints of his experimental studies. Above all, the fundamental importance of translocations and point mutations in the transformation process has clearly been evidenced by these data. Therefore, the design of experiments in mutagenicity testing should preferentially consider these types of mutations. Any mutagen, e.g. certain heavy metals or their compounds, inducing those types of mutations, must be considered suspicious not only concerning its mutagenicity in germ cells but also in somatic cells, and, by that, its carcinogenicity.     

Land-use planning for sustainable resource development in Kumaon Lesser Himalaya—a study of the Gomti watershed

SUMMARY

The Lesser Himalaya, as the most densely populated part of the tectonically active and ecologically sensitive Himalayan mountain ranges, deserves specific attention to the conservation of the environment and the sustainable development of natural resources. Rapid growth of the human population during recent years, and the absence of any viable means of livelihood other than uneconomic crop farming have led to the uncontrolled exploitation of land areas and the consequent degradation and depletion of critical biophysical resources in the region. The need for sustainable development in Himalaya, therefore, makes it imperative to adopt a comprehensive land-use policy based on land capacity analysis that is scientific and practical. The main objective of this paper is to evolve an optimal land-use framework for the Gomti Watershed, situated in Kumaon, Lesser Himalaya. A detailed study of the traditional land use, regional agricultural system and the areas prone to environmental hazards was made throughout the watershed, through the preparation of large scale topographical forest and land record maps, field surveys and mapping. The average slope was considered as the principal parameter of land capacity, the potential for landslides and the intensity of erosion. Recognising the drastic changes that have taken place in the traditional land use, the watershed area has been proposed to be defined as protected forests (33.41%), community forests (32.86%), cultivation (23.33%) and horticulture (8.30%).