Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors.     

土地利用变化对湿地景观连通性的影响及连通性优化效应——以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对湿地景观的结构和功能产生深刻的影响。选择江苏盐城海滨地区为研究对象,应用遥感和地理信息系统技术,分析20年来土地利用变化对湿地景观连通性的影响,并以2007年湿地景观生态系统服务功能为基础,采用阻力面模型探讨湿地景观连通性优化途径及其效应。结果显示:①1987—2007年间,盐城海滨区域土地利用结构变化显著。其中耕地面积比重由36.72%上升为46.17%,自然湿地持续减少,面积由44.4%减为26.01%,人工湿地持续增加,面积由9.96%上升为18.72%;②随着区域人类土地利用活动的加强,光滩、碱蓬沼泽和芦苇沼泽的空间连通性降低,区域土地利用导致湿地景观之间生态流阻隔,景观生态服务功能减弱;③2007年湿地景观生态功能强度空间差异显著,以累积耗费距离面、生态源地、耗费路径为依据,对湿地景观连通路径优化结果表明,废黄河口和大丰港附近等关键区域对景观连通性和生态流影响最大,是景观生态节点优化的首要对象;④加强连通路径的关键区域优化、提高景观连通度是实现景观优化的关键。     

上海中心城区土地利用变化对区域降雨径流的影响研究

土地利用变化导致的城市下垫面改变对降雨径流关系有着重要影响。选择高度城市化的上海中心城区,利用初损和径流量修正方法并经实测数据验证后的SCS-CN修正模型,在城市集水区尺度上,初步探讨模拟了1947—2006年中心城区在0.5～10 a一遇设计暴雨重现期条件下持续1 h的降雨事件和丰、平、枯降雨年份下的径流系数,并分析了土地利用方式、前期土壤湿润程度(AMC)和降雨因素对中心城区60 a降雨径流关系的影响。结果表明:①60 a间,AMCⅠ和0.5～10 a一遇设计暴雨重现期条件下的径流系数相对增长17.21%～6.14%,枯、平和丰水年的年径流系数相对增长分别为20.49%、11.83%和10.02%;②土地利用类型、土壤入渗能力和AMC类型,与降雨强度共同构成影响降雨径流关系的两方面重要因素。随着降雨强度的增大,在AMCⅠ→Ⅲ过程中,土地利用改变对降雨径流关系的影响趋小,降雨类型起决定作用;而降雨强度越小,土壤AMC越干燥,土地利用改变对降雨径流关系影响越强;③不同降雨强度和降水年条件下的径流系数均随CN值的增大而增加,其径流系数与CN值之间分别可用线性(R20.999)和指数(R20.987)关系表示。     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development

Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.

盐城滨海湿地海堤演化与土地利用变化分析

滨海湿地是全球环境变化最为敏感的地区之一,了解其海堤演化和土地利用变化可为湿地资源的可持续利用和管理提供依据。利用1983年的1∶5万土地利用图和2001年的ETM遥感影像为基础数据源,分析了1983年和2001年该区海堤的演化和土地利用的变化情况。研究结果表明,1983年和2001年海岸带从南到北呈现由淤涨型向侵蚀型过渡的变化特征,海堤长度呈缩短状态;土地利用类型以光滩、耕地及盐田为主,变化趋势是盐田、芦苇地和耕地逐渐在增加,盐蒿滩、园林地逐渐在减少。通过分析,表明人类活动对滨海湿地土地利用格局的影响明显。     

青海省洪水变化情况的研究

为了研究青海省洪水变化情况,搜集了青海省内43个水文站的相关数据,其中选取具有长期观测资料的32个水文站资料,采用P-Ⅲ曲线作为其理论频率曲线,并与各站自建站-1974年和建站-2008年的水文计算成果进行比较,结果表明青海省水情发生了较大的变化,且在各水文分区的变化也不相同。     

基于中亚气候数据的开都河流域历史气候资料重建

20世纪被认为可能是近千年中气候最暖的时期,但由于20世纪前50余年西北干旱区没有或少有实测气候资料,因此该区域20世纪气候变化评估存在很大的不确定性。重建这一时期气候资料有助于提高20世纪干旱区气候变化评估可靠性。论文应用Delta方法和典型相关分析(CCA)方法,结合1961-1990年开都河流域以及中亚3个气象站点1901-1990年逐月气温和降水资料重建开都河流域1901-1960年气候资料,并分析比较两种方法的精度和适用性。研究结果表明:Delta方法重建的各气象站逐月气温整体上优于CCA方法;CCA方法重建的降水整体上优于Delta方法。Delta方法重建的1901-1960年逐月气温序列不同年份之间变化幅度大,CCA方法重建的气温序列相对比较平缓。两种方法重建的降水序列中均表现出各个年份年内分布差异大的特征。     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。