南方红壤典型水土流失区植被覆盖度变化及其生态效应评估——以福建省长汀县为例

南方红壤典型水土流失区--福建省长汀县曾因生态破坏导致严重的水土流失.经过多年以植树为主的生态修复,该县生态面貌有了明显的改观.论文首先采用线性光谱混合分析模型计算植被覆盖度,并在此原始模型的基础上提出了对地形阴影进行修正的方法来获取植被覆盖度.精度验证表明,在线性光谱混合分析模型中加入山地指数(NDMVI)波段能够削弱地形阴影问题,提高植被覆盖度反演精度.在此基础上利用多时相遥感影像分析了长汀2001-2013 年植被覆盖度的时空变化,并利用遥感生态指数(RSEI)定量评价了长汀水土流失生态修复的效果.结果表明,经过13 a 的水土流失治理,长汀的植被覆盖度有了明显的升高,从2001 年的75.1%上升到2013 年的86.5%.RSEI 生态指数值也随之上升,生态等级为优良的面积比例从85.83%增加到90.59%,反映了长汀县生态质量整体有了明显的提高.植被的生态效应定量研究表明,长汀县的植被覆盖度每增加10%,RSEI 生态指数值至少提高10%,植被覆盖度的生态提升效应显著.     

Performance of a Bayesian state-space model of semelparous species for stock-recruitment data subject to measurement error

Measurement errors in spawner abundance create problems for fish stock assessment scientists. To deal with measurement error, we develop a Bayesian state-space model for stock-recruitment data that contain measurement error in spawner abundance, process error in recruitment, and time series bias. Through extensive simulations across numerous scenarios, we compare the statistical performance of the Bayesian state-space model with that of standard regression for a traditional stock-recruitment model that only considers process error. Performance varies depending on the information content in data, as determined by stock productivity, types of harvest situations, and amount of measurement error. Overall, in terms of estimating optimal spawner abundance S_MSY, the Ricker density-dependence parameter β, and optimal harvest rate h_MSY, the Bayesian state-space model works best for informative data from low and variable harvest rate situations for high-productivity salmon stocks. The traditional stock-recruitment model (TSR) may be used for estimating α and h_MSY for low-productivity stocks from variable and high harvest rate situations. However, TSR can severely overestimate S_MSY when spawner abundance is measured with large error in low and variable harvest rate situations. We also found that there is substantial merit in using h_MSY (or benchmarks derived from it) instead of S_MSY as a management target.     

铁路交通噪声对鸟类生态环境的影响预测评价

由于鸟类的听觉频率范围与人类不同,以往基于A计权声压级的噪声测量方法,用于鸟类声环境的监测评价并不准确。以广东省江门市新会区“小鸟天堂”风景名胜区为例,开展铁路交通噪声对鸟类生态环境的影响研究。首先,通过实地调查,对鸟类生态区的多个监测点进行声环境线性频谱测量;其次,根据新茂铁路新会段的规划布局,采用模式预测法计算铁路运行期间在监测点产生的交通噪声频谱,并与铁路运行前实地测量的现状频谱叠加;在此基础上,进一步探讨铁路交通噪声对鸟类生态区声环境的影响以及预防措施。研究结果表明,列车运行时在鸟类良好听觉频率范围的噪声增量可达10~30dB,将严重影响鸟类声环境;当采取全封闭声屏障防护措施之后,可有效降低“小鸟天堂”景区范围的噪声。     

A density projection approach for non-trivial information dynamics: Adaptive management of stochastic natural resources

We demonstrate a density projection approximation method for solving resource management problems with imperfect state information. The method expands the set of partially-observed Markov decision process (POMDP) problems that can be solved with standard dynamic programming tools by addressing dimensionality problems in the decision maker's belief state. Density projection is suitable for uncertainty over both physical states (e.g. resource stock) and process structure (e.g. biophysical parameters). We apply the method to an adaptive management problem under structural uncertainty in which a fishery manager's harvest policy affects both the stock of fish and the belief state about the process governing reproduction. We solve for the optimal endogenous learning policy—the active adaptive management approach—and compare it to passive learning and non-learning strategies. We demonstrate how learning improves efficiency but typically follows a period of costly short-run investment.     

The Scientific Basis of Marine Pollution Prevention Strategies

Abstract

Prevention of marine pollution, particularly in semi-enclosed seas, embayments and areas with limited exchange of water, requires a well conceived and harmonized legal system, specified standards, a monitoring programme, and effective control and enforcement capabilities. This comprehensive approach is often called a strategy. Three generations of strategies have been devised and applied historically in Europe and North America, each a step further in integrating environmental protection, technical advancement and economic capabilities. the overpowering socio-economic problems of transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, a task facing a dozen central and eastern European coastal states, compound the problem of application of an integrated approach.

No management strategy can achieve its set goals unless based on scientific evidence. the data base has to offer information on two basic questions, one specific and one of a general nature.

The specific question is: Has the area under consideration some features, an activity, or one or more living species, which must be protected at any cost? the answer to this question will invoke the precautionary principle into strategic considerations, and leads to the general question: What is the carrying (= assimilative or environmental) capacity for each activity and for the discharge of each contaminant into the impacted area? Answers to these questions lead to the choice of the strategy for environmental management.     

Sustainable development and cultural theory

SUMMARY

What is sustainable development? Why is at an issue? Ideally, what needs to be done? and Practically, what can be done? are answered here by relying on the cultural theory of Mary Douglas and her colleagues, more especially Aaron Wildavsky and Michael Thompson, both of whom have used the model to address sustainable development. The implications of cultural theory for sustainable development are substantial.

The article is divided into five sections. The first describes the current controversy over sustainable development. The second sets out the cultural theory model, and the third applies that model to reformulate our understanding of sustainable development. The fourth draws out the implications of a reformulated sustainable development, while the conclusion uses those implications to answer the four questions that started the article.     

Improved strategies for coverage estimation by using replicated line-intercept sampling

Coverage, i.e., the area covered by the target attribute in the study region, is a key parameter in many surveys. Coverage estimation is usually performed by adopting a replicated protocol based on line-intercept sampling coupled with a suitable linear homogeneous estimator. Since coverage is a parameter which may be interestingly represented as the integral of a suitable function, improved Monte Carlo strategies for implementing the replicated protocol are introduced in order to achieve estimators with small variance rates. In addition, new specific theoretical results on Monte Carlo integration methods are given to deal with the integrand functions arising in the special coverage estimation setting.

Exploring fisheries strategies for the western English Channel using an ecosystem model

An ecosystem model of the western English Channel ecosystem in 1994 was used to explore the effects of the use of a fishing policy optimization routine on profits, number of jobs and ecosystem structure. The optimization for single objective led to the specialization of the fishing fleet, with some fleet types being almost excluded. The profits and mainly the job optimizations led to big changes in the ecosystem structure, with loss of diversity, but the overall biomass of all vertebrate groups represented in the model increased considerably. For the objective focusing on ecosystem structure, there was an increase in biodiversity, with many long-lived groups predicted to increase, although the overall vertebrate biomass suffered just a small increase. An “ideal” mixed policy configuration was found when slightly greater weight was given to ecosystem structure than was given to profits and jobs. This scenario led to an overall reduction in effort but also to increased profits and biodiversity, while keeping the number of jobs at the same level as the baseline estimates. The results of the optimizations showed that the average trophic level of the catches is quite resistant to changes in the underlying system structure. On the other hand, despite the high level of aggregation of the model structure, a biodiversity index estimated by the model presented large changes as a function of the weights placed on the single policy functions, reflecting the changes in the system structure. The output of the application of the fishing optimization presented here should be considered in qualitative rather than in quantitative terms as an aid and part contribution to the complicated discussions on future long term management actions. Nonetheless it points to an overall reduction in fishing capacity, an objective widely accepted within the scientific community, while keeping the fishery in a profitable state.     

Convexity in projection matrices: Projection to a calibration problem

Convexity, as a fundamental property of sets and functions defined on convex sets, plays an important role in many mathematical and applied disciplines, including extremal and optimal-control problems. We prove the set of all feasible projection matrices in a general class of matrix models for stage-structured population dynamics to be convex and the dominant eigenvalue (λ₁) of any projection 2 × 2 matrix to be either a convex, or a concave function on a simplex of the matrix first-row entries (i.e., stage-specific reproduction rates). The latter is also conjectured for the general n × n case. Though looking far from practical needs of matrix population models, this mathematical result has appeared to be quite useful in solving a practical problem to calibrate the projection matrix, i.e., to estimate all the stage-specific vital rates, from empirical data. The data from monitoring of individual life histories of marked plants on permanent sample plots during successive years enable direct calculation of the stage-specific survival and ontogenetic transition rates, but the rates of reproduction do remain uncertain as far as the parent plants can hardly be determined for the (not yet marked!) recruitment.     

关于建立工业园区统一规范碳核算方法体系的思考

工业园区是中国制造业发展的重要载体与做好碳达峰碳中和的关键支撑，建立统一规范的碳核算方法，是园区科学推进低碳发展的必要前提。本研究剖析了园区碳核算的复杂性，明确了园区“双碳”工作的核心要义，建立了“一芯四核”互馈式园区碳核算方法框架。该框架主要包括应用目标与范围定义、流分析与排放清单建立、碳排放计算、结果解释与决策支撑四个核心环节，四“核”间相互作用、迭代优化，根据园区发展实际进行具象化，并充分考虑向上与所在行政区域碳核算清单、向下与企业碳排放核算兼容，最终服务于准确把握低碳发展内涵、锻造新的产业竞争优势这一关键内“芯”。进一步地，研究阐述了“一芯四核”方法框架各主要步骤，分析了园区碳核算实践中面临的园区边界、核算范围、清单建立、数据质量等方面的难点，提出了基于检验清单的各环节工作原则、操作步骤及注意事项。研究为“千园千面”的工业园区提供了科学统一的碳核算理论框架，可为工业园区在低碳转型中锻造新的产业竞争优势提供决策支撑，为建立统一规范碳排放统计核算体系奠定方法基础。