福建省2005-2017年大气边界层SO2的时空变化特征

为研究近年来福建省SO₂污染的时空动态特征,利用臭氧观测仪（ozone monitoring instrument,OMI）卫星遥感反演的PBL（planetary boundary layer,大气边界层）SO₂柱含量数据,分析了2005-2017年福建省PBL SO₂柱含量的时空间分布特征.结果表明:①在长时间尺度上,PBL SO₂柱含量的变化趋势可分为2个时段,其中,2005-2011年PBL SO₂柱含量呈逐渐上升趋势,6 a增加了约0.027 DU,增长率约为6.12%;2011-2017年PBL SO₂柱含量呈下降趋势,7 a减少了约0.018 DU,下降率约为3.89%.②PBL SO₂柱含量呈明显的周期性变化特征,最小值和最大值分别出现在6月和12月,多年平均值分别约为0.383和0.555 DU.③PBL SO₂柱含量的3个高值区分别出现在沿海的福州市,厦门市、漳州市东部和泉州市西部,三明市和南平市部分地区,这3个高值区多年平均PBL SO₂柱含量分别约为0.505、0.495和0.485 DU.从城市尺度上来看,PBL SO₂柱含量最大值出现在厦门市,其多年平均值为（0.486±0.015）DU;其次为福州市,PBL SO₂柱含量多年平均值为（0.465±0.026）DU;最低值出现在漳州市,PBL SO₂柱含量多年平均值为（0.429±0.020）DU.④福建省PBL SO₂柱含量变化趋势在空间分布上存在明显的差异,不同时期、不同区域变化趋势不一致.2005-2011年PBL SO₂柱含量的变化范围为-0.13~0.18 DU,变化率范围为-25%~50%,PBL SO₂柱含量出现增长的区域主要是在高值区,如龙岩市西部、厦门市北部以及三明市东部等区域;2011-2017年PBL SO₂柱含量的变化范围为-0.13~0.15 DU,变化率范围为-29%~34%.2011-2017年福州市和厦门市PBL SO₂柱含量下降最为明显,减少了约0.10 DU,下降率约为25%.研究显示,卫星遥感估算的PBL SO₂柱含量具有一定的可靠性,可以用于区域SO₂污染的研究.      

石羊河流域1959年至2008年风速变化特征分析

利用线性拟合、Mann—Kendall方法、小波分析对石羊河流域五个测站空间平均的近50年来的逐日风速资料进行了倾向、周期、突变等特性分析。研究结果表明：1959年至2008年间,整个石羊河流域风速呈减小趋势,变化率约为-0．004m／（s．a）．而上游风速呈现明显的上升趋势。四个季节中冬季风速降低速度最大,而夏季风速呈现上升趋势。风速的长期变化还具有一定的突变性,年平均风速在1988年出现了由高到低的突变,表明风速开始下降。复值Morlet小波分析的结果显示,风速变化存在6a、13a、19a、25a四个峰值。其中19a的时间尺度为第一主周期。     

回归分析方法在环境领域中的应用评述

回归分析是一种处理变量间相关关系的有效数理统计方法,回归分析模型目前已应用于环境领域的多个方面,并在实际应用中证实了其准确性和可行性。基本回归分析方法有一元线性回归、多元线性回归和逐步回归等,通过概述了这几种基本回归分析方法的原理及其在环境领域中的应用现状,评述了其应用效果,并预测了回归分析技术在环境领域中应用的发展方向;对在众多环境科学与工程研究领域中,更好地发挥回归分析的作用具有很好的参考价值。     

VOCs源强不确定性对臭氧生成及污染防治影响的模拟分析

本文基于三维区域空气质量模式WRF-Chem,通过修改模式化学模块,量化输出过程量和诊断量,提供了一种定量分析挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)源强不确定性对O3生成影响的方法.为无法定量计算VOCs源强导致的臭氧生成率[P(O3)]偏差,以及由此对O3体积分数分布和污染控制相关联的VOCs敏感区和NOx 敏感区分布的误判提...     

Spatial correlation between the prevalence of transmissible spongiform diseases and British soil geochemistry

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are a group of fatal neurological conditions affecting a number of mammals, including sheep and goats (scrapie), cows (BSE), and humans (Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease). The diseases are widely believed to be caused by the misfolding of the normal prion protein to a pathological isoform, which is thought to act as an infectious agent. Outbreaks of the disease are commonly attributed to contaminated feed and genetic susceptibility. However, the implication of copper and manganese in the pathology of the disease, and its apparent geographical clustering, have prompted suggestions of a link with trace elements in the environment. Nevertheless, studies of soils at regional scales have failed to provide evidence of an environmental risk factor. This study uses geostatistical techniques to investigate the correlations between the distribution of TSE prevalence and soil geochemical variables across the UK according to different spatial scales. A similar spatial pattern in scrapie and BSE occurrence is identified, which may be linked with increasing pH and total organic carbon, and decreasing iodine concentration. However, the pattern also resembles that of the density of dairy farming. Nevertheless, despite the low spatial resolution of the TSE data available for this study, the fact that significant correlations are detected indicates there is a possibility of a link between soil geochemistry, scrapie, and BSE. It is suggested that further investigations of the prevalence of TSE and environmental exposure to trace metals should take into account the factors affecting their bioavailability.     

基于生态保护的道路规划策略

分析了路段与景观两个尺度上的道路生态环境影响,结合当今景观生态学、道路生态学的研究成果,系统论述了与道路交通规划建设相关的生态策略：（1）在区域尺度上,依据生态敏感度规划路网密度、保持大型自然空间的生态完整性、提倡非生态敏感地段的交通集中、增加路网的区域水平渗透性;（2）在路段规模上,自然空间的生境避让、保持重要地段的自然连续性、打破交通生态瓶颈、减少道路交通的环境影响、补偿道路建设的生态影响等。这些策略旨在为可持续道路交通提供基于生态合理性的规划原则与方法。     

The strategy of fly-and-forage migration,illustrated for the osprey (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pandion haliaetus</Emphasis>)

Migrating birds often alternate between flight steps, when distance is covered and energy consumed, and stopover periods, when energy reserves are restored. An alternative strategy is fly-and-forage migration, useful mainly for birds that hunt or locate their prey in flight, and thus, enables birds to combine foraging with covering migration distance. The favourability of this strategy in comparison with the traditional stopover strategy depends on costs of reduced effective travel speed and benefits of offsetting energy consumption during migration flights. Evaluating these cost-benefit effects, we predict that fly-and-forage migration is favourable under many conditions (increasing total migration speed), both as a pure strategy and in combination with stopover behaviour. We used the osprey (Pandion haliaetus) as test case for investigating the importance of this strategy during spring and autumn migration at a lake in southern Sweden. The majority, 78%, of passing ospreys behaved according to the fly-and-forage migration strategy by deviating from their migratory track to visit or forage at the lake, while 12% migrated past the lake without response, and 10% made stopovers at the lake. Foraging success of passing ospreys was almost as good as for birds on stopover. Timing of foraging demonstrated that the birds adopted a genuine fly-and-forage strategy rather than intensified foraging before and after the daily travelling period. We predict that fly-and-forage migration is widely used and important among many species besides the osprey, and the exploration of its occurrence and consequences will be a challenging task in the field of optimal migration.     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.