The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment

Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.     

Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes

Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.     

An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

Sorption‐desorption kinetics of some organochlorine insecticides in silt‐water suspensions

Kinetic (batch) sorption and desorption experiments for some organochlorine insecticides in silt‐water suspensions are described. The effect of possible experimental artifacts on the results is examined. The influence of the silt/water ratio on the linear sorption coefficient and on the “nonextractable”; solute fraction is determined. The sorption process is described in terms of some kinetic models.     

Assessing the Risk of Ships Striking Large Whales in Marine Spatial Planning

Marine spatial planning provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment and has the potential to minimize environmental impacts and reduce conflicts among users. Spatially explicit assessments of the risks to key marine species from human activities are a requirement of marine spatial planning. We assessed the risk of ships striking humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), blue (Balaenoptera musculus), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales in alternative shipping routes derived from patterns of shipping traffic off Southern California (U.S.A.). Specifically, we developed whale‐habitat models and assumed ship‐strike risk for the alternative shipping routes was proportional to the number of whales predicted by the models to occur within each route. This definition of risk assumes all ships travel within a single route. We also calculated risk assuming ships travel via multiple routes. We estimated the potential for conflict between shipping and other uses (military training and fishing) due to overlap with the routes. We also estimated the overlap between shipping routes and protected areas. The route with the lowest risk for humpback whales had the highest risk for fin whales and vice versa. Risk to both species may be ameliorated by creating a new route south of the northern Channel Islands and spreading traffic between this new route and the existing route in the Santa Barbara Channel. Creating a longer route may reduce the overlap between shipping and other uses by concentrating shipping traffic. Blue whales are distributed more evenly across our study area than humpback and fin whales; thus, risk could not be ameliorated by concentrating shipping traffic in any of the routes we considered. Reducing ship‐strike risk for blue whales may be necessary because our estimate of the potential number of strikes suggests that they are likely to exceed allowable levels of anthropogenic impacts established under U.S. laws. Evaluación del Riesgo de Colisiones de Barcos y Ballenas en la Planificación Marina Espacial     

山东临沂市集体林权改革环境影响调查研究—以小山口村、魏城村和南垛庄铺为例

本文选取小山口村、魏城村和南垛庄铺三个林权改革试点村作为调查对象,通过描述统计、交叉列联表分析和Ridit分析,就林权改革的方式、林改对经济和环境产生的影响及林权流转三个方面的问题对山东临沂市的集体林权制度改革现状展开调查研究。分析发现,在历经3年的林改中,临沂市始终坚持尊重实际、区别对待,灵活选择林权改革的方式,使当地的林权制度改革受到村民的欢迎。此外,林权改革后,当地的经济收入和生态环境及对林业的投入均有不同程度的提高和改善,村民的营林、护林积极性也大大增加。但是在涉及到林权流转方面的问题时,大部分的村民不能清楚认识到林权的价值,从而使落实处置权的目标短期内难以实现。     

水华束丝藻对汞的吸附-解吸特征

通过室内模拟实验,探究不同丰度的活、死水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺的吸附动力学特征和等温吸附模型以及解吸特征。结果表明,水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺有较好的吸附效果,能在短时间内吸附大量Hg²⁺,120 min左右达到吸附平衡,且活藻对Hg²⁺的吸附效果比死藻好;活藻和死藻吸附Hg²⁺的动力学过程符合准一级、准二级动力学模型,且准二级动力学模型拟合效果更好;活、死水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺的吸附分别符合Langmuir模型、D-R模型,最大吸附量分别为2.07×10^-2 ng/（10⁶ cells）、3.56×10^-2 ng/（10⁶ cells）;水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺的单位吸附量随着藻丰度的增加而减少,吸附总量随着藻丰度的增加而增加。反应初期（0～5 min）,活、死水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺进行生物吸附,吸附速度快且效率高;随后活藻依靠新陈代谢将Hg²⁺转移至细胞内进行生物富集,因而活藻的单位吸附量高于死藻。活藻和死藻对Hg²⁺的解吸量随藻丰度的增加而增加,且死藻变化更明显。     

Proposal of Indicators to Assess Urban Sustainability in Brazil

The research related here focuses on municipal situations where problems of sustainability may be defined and tackled on the basis of bottom-up management procedures with the participation of organized society. The aim is to build management models that may be implemented with reasonable administrative effort and cost. Implementation pursues the target of approaching a sustainable situation in the municipality. Environmental parameters for an ideal municipality with undefined geographical location are presented. For each parameter, a set of indicators is developed that can measure the prospect of sustainability. The indicators are defined in terms of numbers or literal concepts according to the possibility of measurement. Examples of management models are presented, which are able to approach the situation defined as sustainable by the indicators. The basic management tool is the learning curve of targeted communities, which is experimentally developed and applied. The indicators are grouped according to their range of applicability.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

Participation for understanding: an interactive method

INTRODUCTION: There are many available models that help evaluate the effectiveness of safety and health measures, but many are complex and require input from many departments within an organization. There is a need to develop a more user-friendly model. METHOD: A participative model was developed that involves face-to-face interviewers with workers, maintenance department, purchasing department and health and safety experts. They were asked about costs, efforts, benefits, and effects of gauging the effects of prevention efforts. RESULTS: Cost effectiveness analyses are essential in all cases and can include whatever the end-user requires, whether it is a small or lasting improvement. Having management participate helps validate the data. CONCLUSIONS: Organizations who collaborate with someone with at least some skill in cost-benefit evaluations will find that they will be able to establish policies and procedures from the data. The end result is a calculation that is understood by all involved.