灾害保险赔案数据库的建立及应用——以湖南省溆浦县保险赔案数据库为例

保险公司的赔案资料记录了保险理赔的货币过程,它是进行保险赔会审计分析和保险出险原因分析最可靠的实证材料。作者利用１９８１～１９９３年湖南省保险公司企业财产险、家庭财产险、货物运输险、种养业险等四个主要保险险种的赔案资料,以行政县,区为基本单元建立了达２３３７６１条记录的灾害保险赔案数据库。以湖南省溆浦县保险公司的赔案数据库为例,对其近１０多年来的保险灾害状况进行了初步分析,为当地保险公司提出了保险防灾防损的理论根据。     

Trends and sources of particulate matter in the Superstition Wilderness using air trajectory and aerosol cluster analysis

Ambient aerosols adversely affect human health and visibility and impact climate. Identification of sources of particulate matter and its precursors is necessary for developing control strategies. The goal of this research is to utilize long-term speciated particulate matter data and back-trajectory cluster analyses to determine trends and sources of particulate matter in the Superstition Wilderness, a rural area east of Phoenix, Arizona. Twenty-four hour back-trajectories were calculated for every hour of every 24-h particulate matter sample obtained by IMPROVE from 1991 to 2004. Days that included back-trajectories with considerable spatial variance were excluded from further analyses. To minimize uncertainties inherent in single trajectories, all calculated trajectories for each sampling day were averaged to represent the air mass sampled during that day. Cluster analysis of trajectories identified four unique regions, including a region with Phoenix, a region with copper smelters, and one with coal-fired power plants. Yearly averages of sulfate, nitrate, soil, and carbon concentrations were calculated for each region. Statistically significant trends in species concentrations by region and independent of region and differences in concentrations between regions were examined.Sulfate concentrations from the region with smelters were higher than other regions but decreased during the study period. Emissions data from the smelters indicate that much of the sulfate from the region was due to the smelters. The overall 2.2% year⁻¹ decrease in sulfate concentrations at TNM is likely due to decreased emissions from the copper smelters. A 3.6% year⁻¹ increase in nitrate concentrations was driven largely by increasing NO_x concentrations from Phoenix and to a lesser extent the region southwest of the site which includes Tucson and suburban/urban areas between Phoenix and Tucson. Soil concentrations were higher from regions with deserts than the region without desert. This method could not identify trends or source regions of carbonaceous aerosols at this site.     

Concentrations and trends of benzene in ambient air over New York State during 1990–2003

Since 1990s, a systematic program to measure air toxics has been active in New York State with monitors located both in urban and rural areas. In this study we examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of benzene, a known human carcinogen that is emitted by many source categories. The analysis indicates that ambient concentration levels of benzene have decreased by as much as 60% over this period not only in the ozone non-attainment area of New York City that had the reformulated gas (RFG) requirements, but also over the rest of the state as well. Although the rate of decrease appears to have flattened out in recent years, the annual average concentration levels are found to be above the health risk threshold even at the remote location, Whiteface Mountain, suggesting the need for further reductions in benzene emissions.     

污水生物脱氮除磷工艺的现状与发展

阐述了污水生物脱氮除磷的机理,并按空间和时间顺序介绍了一些经典的脱氮除磷工艺,对其发展趋势作了展望。通过对除磷机理及工艺的介绍和分析,提出应加深对生物除磷机理的研究,从微生物的角度进行工艺调控。     

降雨-径流与非点源污染物浓度及流失量关系分析——以铁岭市柴河水库上游流域为例

以铁岭市柴河水库上游集水区域为研究对象,利用铁岭市柴河堡水文站降雨时节实测的暴雨径流数据、泥沙数据、污染物浓度数据进行分析,侧重研究降雨时节暴雨径流量与主要污染物浓度及污染物瞬时流失量之间的关系,以期为柴河流域农业非点源污染控制提供参考。研究结果表明:暴雨期内,非点源污染物浓度及瞬时流失量与径流峰值几乎同步出现,它们之间存在着非常密切的关系。     

Assessment of the effect of technical and management characteristics on the frequency of release from piping: An application to a gas storage facility

The assessment of the frequencies of release from piping due to losses of containment is an essential step in the preparing Safety Reports, drawn up as required by the so-called “Seveso” Directive. These are usually calculated starting from the frequencies of random rupture included in international databases and are not plant-specific, furthermore, the quantification of the effect of the safety management system of the facility is not easy. A simple and flexible approach quantifying technical and management characteristics of the plant has been proposed by Milazzo and co-workers in 2010; it is based on the modification of the frequency taken from literature, through the use of the percentages of failure causes actually possible in that plant, and the judgment about their management. The data about the failure causes are taken from the literature and modified by using corrective factors to adapt them to the industrial context. To make possible the application of the method to a large number of major-hazard industry types, some aspects of the approach needed to be improved; these have been identified during a development project coordinated by RINA Consulting, on behalf of Saipem, with the collaboration of the University of Messina. The improvement of the approach focused on two main points, the development of a method to calculate the corrective factors for the failure causes associated with corrosion and erosion phenomena and the strengthening of the methodology for the formulation of the judgment about the safety management. This paper illustrates the fully improved method, as well as an application to a typical gas storage plant.     

Estimated trends and patterns of road traffic fatalities in China, 2002–2012

Objective: This study examined the time trends and age distribution patterns of estimated road traffic fatalities (RTFs) in China over the period 2002–2012. Methods: Data on age-, sex-, and region-specific RTF rates were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. The crude rates were standardized and the Mann-Kendall test was used to test the significance of time trends. Annual number of RTFs was calculated. To minimize the effect of yearly variations, magnitude of changes in and age distribution patterns of the RTFs were examined using mean values of 2 years. Results: RTFs increased significantly in China during the study period. Several features were identified for the RTFs in China. First, RTF rates skyrocketed in rural areas including towns and counties. Second, a significant increase in RTFs was also observed in cities even though the change in RTF rates was not statistically significant there. Third, individuals aged 20–24, 40–49, and 55–64, especially in rural areas, were particularly at risk for RTFs in recent years. Finally, RTFs became more common among middle-aged and older adults than young Chinese, with roughly 57% of all RTFs occurring among individuals aged 45 and above during 2011–2012. Conclusions: RTFs increased dramatically in China during the past decade, especially in rural areas. Age distribution patterns of RTFs have changed there. Community-based public health education and intervention programs are warranted.     

湖南省山洪灾害经济损失评价

山洪灾害是湖南省山丘区经济可持续发展的重要制约因素。文章采用山洪灾害经济损失的不稳定度Us和灾害直接经济损失占应得GDP百分比的平均数Cr,构建了湖南省山丘区山洪灾害灾损度指数DELI。研究表明,Us高值区和Cr高值区在空间上明显错位,前者为湘西自治州、怀化、张家界、郴州等,后者是张家界、娄底、邵阳等。根据DELI等级...     

GIS支持下的盐池县土地沙漠化动态遥感监测与预估

以2个不同时期遥感图像为主要信息源,分别解译编制2期土地沙漠化类型图,在ARC／INFO地理信息系统支持下,建立空间数据库,获得了盐池县1985—1995年土地沙漠化动态图和动态转移数据矩阵,可以定位、定性、定量地显示出前后两期间动态演变格局。并用Markov链模型对未来演变趋势进行模拟和预测。说明盐池县属于正在发展的沙漠化地区,沙漠化程度进一步加剧,同时存在着“一边治理,一边破坏”的双重现象。     

Chemical defense and evolutionary trends in biosynthetic capacity among dorid nudibranchs (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Opisthobranchia)

Summary. An evolutionary scenario incorporating recent advances in phylogenetic research begins with an opisthobranch-pulmonate common ancestor that was herbivorous and had some diet-derived chemical defense. The Nudibranchia and their closest relatives, the Notaspidea, form a lineage the ancestors of which had switched to feeding upon sponges and deriving protection from metabolites contained in them. Subsequently there have been repeated shifts in food and defensive metabolites, and trends are evident in the ability to detoxify, sequester and utilize metabolites from food, as well as to synthesize defensive compounds de novo. The Notaspidea display a minor adaptive radiation that foreshadows a more extensive one in the various lineages of nudibranchs. This review emphasizes changes that have occurred within the Holohepatica, or dorid nudibranchs (order Doridacea). Their sister-group, the Cladohepatica, consists of three other orders, Dendronotacea, Arminacea, and Aeolidiacea, in which there has been a shift from sponges to Cnidaria as food. The Dendronotacea often feed upon Octocorallia, which combine spicules, chemical defense, and stinging capsules and thereby suggest a transition from feeding on sponges. A previous diet of Octocorallia is suggested by the defensive use of prostaglandins in the dendronotacean Tethys fimbria, which eats crustaceans. A shift to bryozoans in some Arminacea is accompanied by use of different metabolites. Dorid nudibranchs evidently began as sponge-feeders, but some lineages have shifted to a variety of other food organisms, and others have specialized in the kind of sponges they feed on and how they do it. There have been shifts to bryozoans (Ectoprocta) and ascidians (Chordata: Urochordata) that track metabolites rather than the taxonomy of the food. There is a crude correlation between the genealogy and the defensive metabolites of the sponge-feeding dorids. De novo synthesis is well documented in this order and the metabolites are appropriately positioned so as to have an adaptive effect. The hypothesis that the capacity for de novo synthesis was acquired by gene transfer across lineages is rejected, partly on the basis of different chirality of metabolites in the nudibranchs and their food organisms. Instead it is proposed that there has been a preadaptive phase followed by evolution in a retrosynthetic mode, with selection favoring enzymes that enhance the yield of end products that are already present in the food. Received 5 February 1999; accepted 26 July 1999