National implications of a 50% global reduction of greenhouse gases, and its feasibility in Japan

This paper considers three questions concerning a low-carbon society. The first is the implication of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007 (IPCC 2007b; http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/chpt.htm), the suggested limit of increase in average worldwide temperatures is 2–3°C above the current level, but is this consistent with a 50% reduction by 2050? Second, when a 50% reduction in global emissions is envisioned, what is the level of reduction needed in Japan? Should the 50% reduction be uniform for advanced industrial countries and developing countries, or differentiated based on a country’s emissions? Third, how feasible are emission reduction targets in Japan? Even if the emission reduction target set for each country takes into account climate change impact and equity, whether the target is technically, or socially and economically, acceptable is another matter.     

Low-carbon technology innovation responding to climate change from the perspective of spatial spillover effects

China’s technological efforts to tackle climate change have lasted for many years. It is necessary to test the effect of these efforts with quantitative method. To be exact, whether and how China’s low-carbon technology innovation responds to climate change should be tested. Based on the 2004–2015 panel data of 30 provinces in China, we use the method of ESDA analyzing the spatial correlation of China’s low-carbon innovation technology. Furthermore, we use the spatial Durbin model empirically analyzing the spatial spillover effects. The results obtained are as follows: first, supply and demand of Chinese low-carbon innovation has some deviation in the spatial distribution. The low-carbon technology innovation as the supply factor shows the characteristics of expanding from the east to the west. Innovation in eastern China has always been the most active, but innovative activities in the middle and western China are gradually decreased. However, carbon emissions have the characteristics of moving westward, implying the change of technology demand different from technology supply. Second, China’s low-carbon innovation actively responds to the trend of climate change, indicating China’s technological efforts have paid off. However, the spatial spillover effects are not significant, showing that the efforts in each region of China still work for himself. Third, environmental regulation and market pull are important factors for low-carbon technology innovation. Among them, both supporting policy and inhibitory policy have significant impact on the local low-carbon technology innovation, but no significant spatial spillover effects. It shows that environmental policies in different regions are competitive and lack of demonstration effects. Economic growth and export as market pull have higher level of effect on low-carbon technology innovation for both local and adjacent areas. Some policy implications are proposed based on these results finally.     

区域高速公路网络构建对可达性空间格局的影响——以安徽沿江地区为实证 

以安徽沿江为实证，采用加权平均旅行时间指标，分析了高速公路网构建对节点区内联系及区外联系可达性格局的影响，并以此为基础，综合分析了节点总体可达性格局的变动；随后对总体可达性的变动幅度及其相对可达性变动格局进行了探讨。结果表明：安徽沿江高速公路网络的构建显著提高了区域整体可达性，且促进了可达性的均衡化；区内联系可达性、区外联系可达性及总体可达性三者格局特征不同，路网构建所形成的影响也各有差别；东部及北部地区可达性变动幅度小于西南部地区；根据可达性系数的变化幅度及方向，可将节点归为相对可达性下降、相对可达性稳定及相对可达性上升3类。     

交通运输网络可靠性研究分析

重点分析连通可靠性、出行时间可靠性、能力可靠性、行为可靠性和潜在可靠性等评价道路网络性能的指标,在回顾和总结交通网络可靠性研究发展的基础上,针对国内外的研究现状,提出了目前研究中存在的问题,描述了该领域有待研究的方向。     

Wider roads, more cars

The transport policy currently followed in many European cities seems to be a combination of investments in public transport in order to increase, or at least maintain, its market share, and road building in order to keep up with expected traffic growth. Apparently, there is a prevalent belief among policy makers that increased road capacity in urban areas does not in itself cause any growth in car traffic worth mentioning. Such a belief neglects the simple economic theory of supply and demand, as well as more specific theories about the dynamics of traffic under congested conditions. An empirical study of commuting patterns in two transport corridors in Oslo, Norway, shows that a considerable proportion of commuters are sensitive to changes in the speed of the respective modes of transportation. The mode chosen depends to a large extent on the ratio of door-to-door travel times by car and transit. Freer flowing traffic in the road network will induce a higher proportion of commuters to travel by car. Conversely, faster public transport will reduce the proportion of car commuters, but the effects of such improvements will be offset if road capacity is simultaneously increased. In addition to the relative speeds of car and transit, the parking conditions at the workplace are of great importance to the choice of transport mode.     

广州市居民省外游出游行为研究

根据2001年10月到2002年1月对广州702名市民进行的抽样调查资料，作者对广州市居民到省外旅游的行为进行了分析，得出了该地区居民的省外游行为规律。     

导游与旅行社的矛盾和谐分析

在分别对导游和旅行社调查的基础上，就目前旅行社业的高回扣伴随着旅游线路产品的低价格现象背后出现的导游与旅行社的矛盾进行了分析，提出了解决这一矛盾的建议，旨在促使导游与旅行社的关系协调发展。     

城市道路应急交通组织措施及仿真评价*

为应对城市范围内的各类突发事件对城市道路交通系统带来的不利影响。在分析路径分配（交通分流）、反向交通组织、交叉口信号控制调整、交通管制措施等应急交通组织措施的基础上,以南京“6.20”道路交通事故为例,综合运用各种应急交通组织措施对城市局部路网进行应急交通组织,并通过VISSIM交通仿真软件对采用各种应急交通组织措施前后研究区域的行程时间进行对比。结果表明:采用应急交通组织措施对研究区域的交通疏导效果显著,且处理事故的时间越长,应急交通组织措施带来的优化效果越明显。     

佛山市交通CO2排放及低碳出行对策

以佛山市2012年数据为基础,结合COPERT模型,分析了车型种类、排气量、燃油类型、排放水平等对CO2排放因子的影响规律,探讨了不同车型组成与排放水平下的CO2排放分担率,讨论并评估了佛山市的低碳交通出行对策。结果表明:排放水平对CO2排放因子的影响不明显,除重型客车与公交车,燃油类型对CO2排放因子的影响亦不明显,各车型的CO2排放因子随着排气量的增加而增加;当佛山市机动车平均行驶速度提高至55 km/h时,每辆车CO2综合排放因子可达最小值125.73 g/km;轻型客车和摩托车的CO2排放量最大,分别为1469 493 t/a和394 174.3 t/a,分担率分别为52.1%和14.0%;不同排放水平的载客车CO2排放分担率从大到小排序依次为:国I国0国Ⅱ国Ⅲ国Ⅳ,分别为34.7%、22.0%、21.2%、17.5%及4.6%。     

Using structured systems analysis to design an integrated system for transport planning and environmental analysis

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