突出洪灾事件对新疆潜在气候转型的响应

从新疆近250年来的水文突出事件——洪灾的分析人手，探讨了其与新近提出的可能气候转型期降水变化的联系。结果表明，小冰期末以来新疆存在5个比较明显的重大洪灾时段。每一个时段基本上都对应着降水偏多时期，同时也对应着比较明显的气候转折期，前两次对应气温下降降水减少期，后三次对应气温升高降水增多期。20世纪80年代中期前后，洪灾灾情差异显著。20世纪80年代中期以来新，疆洪水及其灾害事件对气候(降水)变化响应较明显，表现出随着降水的增加，洪灾灾情加重、主要河流洪水洪峰流量突破历史极值的情况。这为气候转型观点的成立提供了一定的依据，并且还初步印证了前人有关气候转型初期自然灾害频发和洪水量级增大的论断。     

我国环境保护形势和“十五”的工作思路

阐述了当前我国环境保护工作的形势 ,并针对“十五”环保目标、重点地区和流域以及“十五”环保工作的主要任务和保障措施做了较为详尽的说明     

Survey-based analysis on the diffusion of evacuation advisory warnings during regional evacuations for accidents that release toxic vapors: A case study

This paper analyzes the diffusion of evacuation advisory warnings during regional evacuations for accidents that release toxic vapors. Investigations results on the propagation of evacuation advisory warnings in the ‘4.16’ chlorine release and the explosion accident at Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Factory in China, and a comparison analysis of the evacuation notification process of six typical leakage accidents are presented in this paper. After conducting the evacuation notification investigation on the ‘4.16’ accident, in which 401 valid questionnaires were collected from people who should have evacuated during the accident, the methods and channels of the evacuation notification, the notification efficiency, and the actual response efficiency of the recipients after the issuing of the evacuation advisory warnings were analyzed. A comparison analysis of the evacuation notification process is performed by analyzing six typical leakage accidents, and basic principles of evacuation notification for a regional evacuation for toxic vapor release accidents are proposed.     

Differences in Dissolved Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Responses to Storm‐Event and Ground‐Water Conditions in a Forested,Glaciated Watershed in Western New York1

Abstract: Differences in the storm‐event responses of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) in streamflow and ground water were evaluated for a glaciated forested watershed in western New York. Eight to ten storm events with varying rainfall amounts, intensities, and antecedent moisture conditions were studied for three catchments (1.6, 3.4, and 696 ha) over a three‐year period (2003‐2005). Concentrations of DOC in streamflow exiting the catchments were significantly higher for storm events following a dry period, whereas no similar response was observed for DON. Highest DON concentrations in streamflow were typically associated with storm events following wet antecedent moisture conditions. In addition to antecedent moisture conditions, DOC concentrations were also positively correlated with precipitation amounts, while DON did not reveal a consistent pattern. Streamwater and ground‐water concentrations of DOC during storm events were also strongly correlated with riparian ground‐water depths but a similar relationship was not observed for DON. Ground‐water DON concentrations were also more variable than DOC. We hypothesized that the differences in DOC and DON responses stemmed from the differences in catchment sources of these solutes. This study suggests that while DOC and DON are intrinsically linked as components of dissolved organic matter, their dynamics and exports from watersheds may be regulated by a different set of mechanisms and factors. Identifying these differences is critical for developing more reliable and robust models for transport of dissolved organic matter.     

A Structural Equation Model of Residents＇ Support for Mega Event

The aim of this article is to develop a structural equation model to assess key factors of residents' support for hosting mega event based on previous literature. The model consisted of five latent constructs and eight path hypotheses. A survey was conducted in Shanghai before 2010 World Expo. It was found that the support for mega events is affected directly and/or indirectly by four determinants factors: perceived benefits, perceived costs, personal benefits and community attachment, and support relies heavily on perceived benefits rather than costs. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge in an attempt to understand local residents' support for a mega event in different economic and cultural settings.     

Technological disaster factors

Major Hazard Installations (MHIs) deal with the hazardous substances which exceed the threshold quantity. Although MHIs are safe organizations, they cannot fail due to a single error. However, due to their high complexity, the designer and the operator make errors during the design, and operation of the plants. Consequently, the technical, operational and organizational errors may lead to a major accident. The world has seen many incidents due to the operation of the MHIs. Malaysia has experienced several technological disasters. Four investigation reports have been reviewed in detail. This paper reviews the causes of the technological disasters in general. This paper also summarizes the causes of the technological disasters in Malaysia. Finally the paper rearranges the technological disaster causes and errors.     

Quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios in complex industrial areas

Since the late 80s the application of quantitative risk assessment to the issue of land-use planning with respect to major accident hazards emerged as a topic to be addressed within the safety assessment of chemical and process plants. However, in the case of industrial clusters or complex industrial areas specific methodologies are needed to deal with high-impact low-probability (HILP) events. In the present study, innovative methodologies developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino and NaTech scenarios are presented. In recent years a set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability were developed. A specific effort was dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability in these accident scenarios. In the present study, the application of these models to case-studies was analyzed. The results of the improved models obtained for NaTech quantitative assessment were compared to previous results in the literature. A specific innovative approach was developed to multi-level quantitative assessment of domino scenarios, and its potential was analyzed. The results were examined also evidencing the role and the progress with respect to the pioneering work started on these topics by Franco Foraboschi.     

Global process industry initiatives to reduce major accident hazards

In the past 10 years, the vapor cloud explosion at Texas City, the ammonium nitrate explosion in Toulouse, a pipeline disaster in Belgium, and three near total loss events in Norway have highlighted that major accident process safety is still a serious issue. Hopes that PSM or Safety Case regulations would reduce process events by 80% have not proven true. The Baker Panel, convened after Texas City developed a series of recommendations, mainly around leadership, incentives, safety culture and more effective implementation of PSM systems. Many US-based companies are working hard to implement the Baker recommendations. In Europe, an approach built around safety barriers, especially relating to technical safety systems, is being widely adopted.The author’s company has carried out a global survey of process industry initiatives, for both upstream and downstream activities, to identify what the industry itself is planning to enhance process safety in the next 5-10 years. This paper presents a summary of some of the major programs and initiatives as apply to traditional oil majors, newer national oil companies, and the chemical industry. These are a mixture of Baker recommendations, barrier approaches and tighter integration of process safety and asset integrity. While the factor of 10 improvement achieved in occupational safety over the past 20 years seems unattainable for process safety, a factor of 3-4 improvement in the next 20 years does seem possible. This would call for significant effort on the part of operators, but the benefits fully justify the effort.     

The successes and challenges of implementing high reliability principles: A case study of a UK oil refinery

Research conducted on organisations that are able to sustain excellent safety records over long time periods suggests that there are a number of practices that organisations can adopt to achieve high levels of reliability and safety. These practices are often discussed in the context of major incidents to highlight the safety standards that high hazard organisations should try to emulate. However, previous research has predominantly focused on non-profit organisations, and comparatively little research has examined whether high reliability practices may be meaningfully applied to commercial contexts. This paper addresses this gap by using a qualitative approach to explore the types of reliability-enhancing practices implemented in a UK-based oil refinery in its attempt to achieve its ethos of ‘safe and reliable operations’. The findings illustrate the successful application of reliability-enhancing practices in several domains, including: hazard identification and control; emergency preparedness and collection; and analysis of incidents and near misses. Management commitment to safety emerged as an important factor underpinning the successful implementation of reliability-enhancing practices, highlighting its potential significance in the context of commercial organisations. However, promoting an open reporting culture and maintaining high levels of management visibility may be some of the challenges encountered by organisations striving to implement reliability-enhancing practices.     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.