Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presence-only evaluators to usual presence/absence measures.     

东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法

GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均预测精度虽低于逐步回归统计模型,但也都达91%以上,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。     

地震人员伤亡快速评估模型研究

每年地震都会给社会造成巨大人员伤亡,如果震后能迅速预知地震人员伤亡数量,这对挽救生命损失是十分有意义的。统计了近10年来中国大陆数10次强震、中强震灾害损失,根据影响伤亡的主要因素,用线性回归分析法,建立地震人员伤亡快速评估模型,并对模型进行验证,使之可用于地震预警。     

考虑环境约束的中国资源型城市全要素能源效率及其差异研究

论文采用考虑非期望产出的SBM模型测算了考虑环境约束的中国资源型城市全要素能源效率,并对全要素能源效率差异进行分解研究.研究发现:第一,多数资源型城市处于非效率状态,不同类别城市间效率差异明显,并且这种差异并未随时间明显改善;第二,按区域分组,区域内差异是造成全要素能源效率总体差异的主因,其中,中部区域组内差异是造成总体差异的最重要因素;第三,按规划综合分类分组,各群组内部差异是造成总体差异的主因,其中,成熟型组内差异是造成总体差异的最重要因素;第四,按资源类型分组,各群组内部差异是造成总体差异的主因,其中,煤炭类组内差异与综合类组内差异是造成总体差异最为重要的前两位因素.在研究结果的基础上,论文探讨了相关的含义.     

基于SWAT模型的阿什河流域非点源污染控制措施

以阿什河流域为研究区,建立了SWAT模型,并通过情景模拟技术分别模拟了退耕还林.等高种植、化肥减量与植被过滤带等非点源污染控制措施及其综合效果.结果表明:通过坡耕地退耕还林,可减少1.03%~5.35%的非点源TN负荷与0.94%~8.09%的非点源TP负荷;通过等高耕作,可减少0.51%~2.77%的非点源TN负荷与0.49%~4.54%的非点源TP负荷;通过20%的化肥减量可减少0.65%~6.52%的非点源TN负荷与0.01%~2.95%的非点源TP负荷;20m的植被过滤带可减少42.62%~69.51%的非点源TN负荷与80.09%~86.27%的非点源TP负荷.通过综合管理措施,可减少34.90%~54.36%的TN负荷与35.32%~60.89%的TP负荷.为达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB3838-2002)中Ⅳ类水体TN与TP的浓度标准,2006~2010年尚需削减45.87%~82.53%的点源TN负荷与35.58%~66.85%的点源TP负荷.     

Warm glow from green power: Evidence from Australian electricity consumers

Green electricity products are increasingly made available to consumers in many countries in order to address a number of environmental and social concerns. Most of the literature on this green electricity market focuses on consumers’ characteristics and product attributes that could affect participation. However, the contribution of this environmental consumerism to the overall environmental good does not depend on participation alone. The real impact relies on market participation for green consumers (the proportion of green consumers) combined with the level of green consumption intensity – the commitment levels, or proportion of consumption that is green. We design an online interface that closely mimics the real market decision environment for electricity consumers in Western Australia and use an error component model to analyze consumers’ choice of green electricity products and their commitment levels. We show that product attributes have limited impact on the choice of green products; however, there is still great potential for better participation by improving the design of green electricity programs. When green products are selected, most respondents select the minimum commitment possible, and this is insensitive to the premium being charged on green power, suggesting that we are largely observing a buy-in ‘warm glow’ for carbon mitigation.     

中国区域HCFC-142b排放量模式反演研究

利用拉格朗日粒子扩散模式FLEXPART结合上甸子区域本底站在线观测HCFC-142b数据,采取自上而下的反演方法,估算了2009和2010年中国HCFC-142b的排放量分别为10.82kt/a和15.42kt/a,分别占全球HCFC-142b排放量的29.7%和45.8%.反演HCFC-142b排放量的空间分布结果显示其排放源主要集中在京津冀、四川、山东西部以及长江中下游地区,与相关研究中自下而上方法获得的排放量分布一致.模式反演源较先验源更接近观测数据,2009年相关系数从0.38提高到0.47,2010年相关系数则从0.60提高到0.65.     

污染源半定量化的地下水有机污染风险评价

结合细河沿岸地区水文地质条件及地下水有机污染特征,通过AHP法确定权重,建立DRSIC模型,将评价结果与污染源荷载评价叠加,构建研究区有机污染风险评价模型.并通过研究区有机污染特征检验模型的合理性.结果表明:区内大部分地区有机污染风险中等或低.只有细河沿岸、杨士至于洪区一带污染风险处于高水平.评价结果较好的符合研究区有机污染现状.     

车用环向缠绕气瓶原型选型分析与建议

针对业内对车用环向缠绕气瓶设计文件鉴定和型式试验工作中存在选型分歧这一实际问题,通过综合分析气瓶设计规则、型式试验规则和产品标准的要求,对该产品的原型选择进行讨论,提出一个能够符合国家标准、合理体现制造厂家诉求、且能与设计鉴定、型式试验工作相适应的选型建议。     

Phast validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for pressurised carbon dioxide releases

The consequence modelling package Phast examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to the far-field dispersion including the modelling of rainout and subsequent vaporisation. The original Phast discharge and dispersion models allow the released substance to occur only in the vapour and liquid phases. The latest versions of Phast include extended models which also allow for the occurrence of fluid to solid transition for carbon dioxide (CO₂) releases.As part of two projects funded by BP and Shell (made publicly available via CO2PIPETRANS JIP), experimental work on CO₂ releases was carried out at the Spadeadam site (UK) by GL Noble Denton. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases (vapour storage). The CO₂ was stored in a vessel with attached pipework. At the end of the pipework a nozzle was attached, where the nozzle diameter was varied.This paper discusses the validation of Phast against the above experiments. The flow rate was predicted accurately by the Phast discharge models (within 10%; considered within the accuracy at which the BP experimental data were measured), and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately (well within a factor of two) by the Phast dispersion model (UDM). This validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.