基于三次指数平滑模型的雾霾天气分析与预测

通过建立三次指数平滑模型,分析2002~2012年我国二氧化硫和烟尘的排放量以及每年在环境污染治理方面的投资总额等指标,得出未来3年内我国雾霾天气仍会频发的结论,并究其原因进行了分析。     

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.     

Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Development of a Dynamic Aquatic Model (DynA Model): Estimating Temporal Emissions of DDT to Lake Maggiore (N. Italy)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.009 Background, Aims and Scope Most existing models used to describe the fate of chemicals in surface water and sediment generally consider a 'static scenario', in which a contaminant is discharged at a constant rate and environmental input parameters do not change during the simulation time. This approach is not suitable in environmental scenarios characterized by daily or periodic changes of several input parameters. The aim of this study is to estimate approximate emissions of DDT lo Lake Maggiore using a new surface water model, (DynA Model) that describes the fate of a chemical in a dynamic scenario. Methods The model is developed on the grounds of an existing and validated model (QWASI). A numerical solution was adopted to build the fully dynamic version of the model. Results and Discussion The model was applied to Lake Maggiore emitting DDT at a constant rate until steady-state was reached. Emissions were stopped and later sporadic 'pulse' emissions were added. This was done to calculate the amount of DDT needed to simulate concentrations close to those measured in water and sediments. This allowed the evaluation of the order of magnitude of emissions. An uncertainty analysis for sediment resuspension was also performed, given the lack of measured resuspension rates. Conclusion The model showed the time response of the Lake Maggiore system to varying emission scenarios and provided what are regarded as reasonable estimates of DDT emissions. The model demonstrated the importance of sediment-water exchange. Recommendation and Outlook In order to better calculate DDT concentrations the model should be run with different discharge scenarios to clarify the time trends of concentrations, possibly with the use of different sets of measured data (such as biota and sediment deposition/resuspension rates).     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

泥石流危险范围的模型实验预测法

泥石流危险范围的模型实验预测旨在确定一次泥石流可能堆积泛滥的最大范围.通过泥石流不同冲出量、堆积区坡度和容重的31次模型实验,获取了泥石流堆积面积.最大堆积长度、宽度和厚度的实验数据.采用量纲分析方法,建立了一次泥石流危险范围的预测模型,并由实验资料确定了模型的修正系数.在云南和甘肃的应用实践表明,预测模型精度高,适用范围广,可在我国泥石流危险范围预测预报中使用.     

Toxicity studies and environmental impact assessment

There is abundant evidence that many factors can influence the toxicity of a particular pollutant including environmental fluctuations, season of the year, stage in life cycle, size, and sex. All of these factors should be assessed before making a judgment of the effect on natural populations. Such an assessment can be conceptualized using a simple population model through whichcontrol gates operate as functions of 1). the direct self-maintainance feedback from existing adult population biomass and 2). the recruitment of new individuals due to the maturation of larvae. By extracting general principles of organismic response to pollutants it is possible to incorporate the information into large-scale ecosystem models which would serve as working tools for answering environmental decision-making problems.     

Modeling of non-reactive solute transport in fractured clayey till during variable flow rate and time

Fractures and biopores can act as preferential flow paths in clay aquitards and may rapidly transmit contaminants into underlying aquifers. Reliable numerical models for assessment of groundwater contamination from such aquitards are needed for planning, regulatory and remediation purposes. In this investigation, high resolution preferential water-saturated flow and bromide transport data were used to evaluate the suitability of equivalent porous medium (EPM), dual porosity (DP) and discrete fracture/matrix diffusion (DFMD) numerical modeling approaches for assessment of flow and non-reactive solute transport in clayey till. The experimental data were obtained from four large undisturbed soil columns (taken from 1.5 to 3.5 m depth) in which biopores and channels along fractures controlled 96-99% of water-saturated flow. Simulating the transport data with the EPM effective porosity model (FRACTRAN in EPM mode) was not successful because calibrated effective porosity for the same column had to be varied up to 1 order of magnitude in order to simulate solute breakthrough for the applied flow rates between 11 and 49 mm/day. Attempts to simulate the same data with the DP models CXTFIT and MODFLOW/MT3D were also unsuccessful because fitted values for dispersion, mobile zone porosity, and mass transfer coefficient between mobile and immobile zones varied several orders of magnitude for the different flow rates, and because dispersion values were furthermore not physically realistic. Only the DFMD modeling approach (FRACTRAN in DFMD mode) was capable to simulate the observed changes in solute transport behavior during alternating flow rate without changing values of calibrated fracture spacing and fracture aperture to represent the macropores.     

浅埋型矿井涌水量预测预报的灰色模型

矿井涌水量预测 ,对矿井安全及正常生产都至关重要。矿井涌水量预测采用的常规方法对各含水层的水文地质参数依赖性较大 ,而对各因素之间的影响程度难以区分和把握 ,因此 ,在预测预报中的精度较差 ;而采用灰色理论则具有高度的概括性 ,可以把各种不确定因素 ,统统用一个简单的“灰数”来表示 ,并且预测精度高而简单实用。笔者在分析浅埋型矿井涌水量的构成要素的基础上应用灰色系统理论对其涌水量进行了预测 ,其方法与结果对推动矿井水文地质工作有一定的现实意义和指导作用。     

Long-Term Effects of Fertilization on Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Continuous Corn of Northeast China: RothC Model Simulations

Soil organic C (SOC) content can increase by managing land use practices in which the rates of organic C input exceed those of organic C mineralization. Understanding the changes in SOC content of Black soils (mainly Typic Halpudoll) in northeast China is necessary for sustainable using of soil resources there. We used the RothC model to estimate SOC levels of Black soils under monoculture cropping corn in a long-term fertilization trial at Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, China. The model outputs for the changes in SOC were compared with measured data in this long-term fertilization/manure trial. The sound performance of model in simulating SOC changes suggests that RothC is feasible with Black soils in the temperate climatic region of northeast China. The modeled and measured results indicated that the treatment without fertilizer/farmyard manure (FYM) addition led to a continuous decline in SOC during the study period and N and NPK fertilization were inadequate to maintain the SOC levels in the plow layer (upper 20 cm) unless FYM was added under the current conventional management associated with no above-ground crop residues returning into the soil. Soil organic carbon could follow the same path of decline if the same management practices are maintained. Model results indicate that returning above-ground crop residues to the soil from 2002 to 2022 would increase SOC by 26% for the treatment without fertilization addition, 40% for N treatment, 45% for NPK treatment, and 38% and 46% for N and NPK treatments with FYM addition, compared to the levels in the corresponding treatments in 2002. The simulation results suggest that the RothC model is a feasible tool to assess SOC trend under different management practices, and returning above-ground crop residues into the soil would lead to a remarkable increase in SOC of Black soils in the region.