基于信息过程的绿色技术创新模式研究

从创新信息过程的角度对我国绿色技术创新模式进行实证案例研究，分析政府部门，科研院所以及相关企业在创新信息过程与网络中的作用，同时探讨企业内各部门在创新信息获取接受与加工学习中的特征，指出建立创新信息网络与有效进行创新信息过程管理是促进我国绿色技术创新的一个重要途径。     

Traditional occupancy–abundance models are inadequate for zero-inflated ecological count data

Traditional occupancy–abundance and abundance–variance–occupancy models do not take into account zero-inflation, which occurs when sampling rare species or in correlated counts arising from repeated measures. In this paper we propose a novel approach extending occupancy–abundance relationships to zero-inflated count data. This approach involves three steps: (1) selecting distributional assumptions and parsimonious models for the count data, (2) estimating abundance, occupancy and variance parameters as functions of site- and/or time-specific covariates, and (3) modelling the occupancy–abundance relationship using the parameters estimated in step 2. Five count datasets were used for comparing standard Poisson and negative binomial distribution (NBD) occupancy–abundance models. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) occupancy–abundance models were introduced for the first time, and these were compared with the Poisson, NBD, He and Gaston's and Wilson and Room's abundance–variance–occupancy models. The percentage of zero counts ranged from 45 to 80% in the datasets analysed. For most of the datasets, the ZINB occupancy–abundance model performed better than the traditional Poisson, NBD and Wilson and Room's model. He and Gaston's model performed better than the ZINB in two out of the five datasets. However, the occupancy predicted by all models increased faster than the observed as density increased resulting in significant mismatch at the highest densities. Limitations of the various models are discussed, and the need for careful choice of count distributions and predictors in estimating abundance and occupancy parameter are indicated.     

2000～2010年贵州省植被净初级生产力时空变化研究

为了探明贵州省植被净初级生产力(NPP)在2000~2010年的变化状况,以2000~2010年植被NPP数据为基础,运用ArcG IS和SPSS进行综合分析。结果表明:近11年间,草地、城镇用地、阔叶林、针叶林和湿地等面积呈增加趋势,而灌木林和农田则持续减少,其中农田面积变化尤为明显;2000~2010年贵州省植被NPP变化较大,NPP变化范围为778~889 g/(m2·a),平均值为828.1 g/(m2·a),NPP缓慢上升趋势;全省NPP分布有明显地域性差异,铜仁和六盘水为显著增加(P0.05),其余地州市增加缓慢(P0.05)。黔东南年均NPP最高((927±111)g/(m 2·a)),毕节最低((725±107)g/(m2·a))。NPP变化趋势为东南向西北方向递减,而往西北方向NPP波动程度明显;阔叶林和灌木林缓慢下降,而针叶林和针阔混交林则上升。NPP表现为针阔混交林阔叶林针叶林灌木林。     

扎龙湿地丹顶鹤繁殖栖息地的选择及扩散

景观演变对野生动物栖息地质量和连接度造成的影响,一直是威胁全球生物多样性保护的关键问题,开展扎龙湿地丹顶鹤（Grus japonensis）繁殖栖息地选择及繁殖期生境间的扩散研究,对野生丹顶鹤的保护具有重要的意义。首先利用需要“出现点”的生态位MAXENT模型,进行适宜栖息地选择研究。从水源、食物、干扰、隐蔽物四个方面选择明水面距离、土壤湿度、NDVI、道路距离和居民地距离五个环境变量作为丹顶鹤繁殖栖息地选择的影响因子,预测扎龙保护区可供丹顶鹤进行营巢繁殖的栖息地分布,并分析各影响因子的反应曲线。结果显示：丹顶鹤易于选择远离道路和居民地干扰且靠近明水面的区域作为营巢栖息地,栖息地土壤湿度较高并且植被覆盖较多。从MAXENT模型中提取了38个适宜栖息地斑块,基于电路理论模拟丹顶鹤繁殖期失去飞行能力时的多路径扩散,最大电流密度图突出了可能的“夹点”,模拟出具有一定宽度范围的连接区域,可供丹顶鹤在繁殖期间进行扩散。累积电流密度图突出了在维持网络连通性方面起到积极作用的斑块,并进行面积加权来评估适宜栖息地斑块的综合重要性。结果表明,在MAXENT模型预测出的适宜栖息地斑块基础上,考虑丹顶鹤繁殖期的迁移扩散行为,利用累积电流密度面积加权来评估适宜栖息地斑块的综合重要性,得到的适宜性等级更符合丹顶鹤真实巢址的分布。研究成果可为保护区丹顶鹤栖息繁殖生境的恢复和保护提供科学依据。     

Development and validation of abiotic ligand model for nickel toxicity to wheat (Triticum aestivum)

A terrestrial biotic ligand model (t-BLM) was developed to predict nickel toxicity to wheat (Triticum aestivum) root elongation in hydroponic solutions. The competitive effects of five major cations (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺ and H⁺) on Ni toxicity were investigated and Mg²⁺ was found to be a strong competitor, while H²⁺ showed less competing effect. Besides free Ni²⁺, the toxicity induced by the species NiHCO₃⁺ was non-neglect able at pH > 7 because NiHCO₃⁺ occupied a significant fraction of total Ni under such condition. Thus, a t-BLM including Ni²⁺, NiHCO₃⁺, Mg²⁺, and H⁺ could successfully predict the nickel toxicity to wheat root elongation and it performed better prediction than the conventional free ion activity model. In addition, the model was examined with two sets of independent experiments, which contained multiple cations and low-molecular-weight organic acids to mimic the rhizo-sphere condition. The developed t-BLM well predicted nickel toxicity in both experiments since it can account in both complexation and competition effects, suggesting its potential to be used in a complicated matrix like soil solution. This study provides direct evidence that the t-BLM is a reliable method for the risk assessment of nickel in terrestrial system.     

城市空气质量数值预报方法研究

城市空气质量数值预报,在时空分辨率和预报客观性方面具有明显优势,是未来城市空气质量预报的主要发展方向。以济南市为例,探索建立了一套较为成熟的城市空气质量数值预报方法。该方法采用高分辨率对流层化学模式系统为预报模式基础,同时根据济南市特点对模式系统进行修正,取得了较好的预报效果。此外,该模式系统由于能够较为准确地模拟城市范围内污染物的时空分布,在城市空气污染防治规划方面具有较为广泛的应用前景。     

地下水脆弱性评价和污染风险管理

地下水脆弱性评价和风险评估是地下水污染防治的有用工具和工作步骤,是地下水资源管理和地下水污染修复的重要依据。文章对地下水脆弱性评价和污染风险评价的研究背景和进展进行了简要综述,提出了目前地下水脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题,并对今后基于风险管理的地下污染环境修复及其总体思路进行了展望。     

Large outdoor chamber experiments and computer simulations: (I) Secondary organic aerosol formation from the oxidation of a mixture of d-limonene and α-pinene

This work merges kinetic models for α-pinene and d-limonene which were individually developed to predict secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from these compounds. Three major changes in the d-limonene and α-pinene combined mechanism were made. First, radical–radical reactions were integrated so that radicals formed from both individual mechanisms all reacted with each other. Second, all SOA model species from both compounds were used to calculate semi-volatile partitioning for new semi-volatiles formed in the gas phase. Third particle phase reactions for particle phase α-pinene and d-limonene aldehydes, carboxylic acids, etc. were integrated. Experiments with mixtures of α-pinene and d-limonene, nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and diurnal natural sunlight were carried out in a dual 270 m³ outdoor Teflon film chamber located in Pittsboro, NC. The model closely simulated the behavior and timing for α-pinene, d-limonene, NO, NO₂, O₃ and SOA. Model sensitivities were tested with respect to effects of d-limonene/α-pinene ratios, initial hydrocarbon to NO_x (HC₀/NO_x) ratios, temperature, and light intensity. The results showed that SOA yield (Y_SOA) was very sensitive to initial d-limonene/α-pinene ratio and temperature. The model was also used to simulate remote atmospheric SOA conditions that hypothetically could result from diurnal emissions of α-pinene, d-limonene and NO_x. We observed that the volatility of the simulated SOA material on the aging aerosol decreased with time, and this was consistent with chamber observations. Of additional importance was that our simulation did not show a loss of SOA during the daytime and this was consistent with observed measurements.     

土地利用改造规划的多因子空间分析

以福清市土地利用分布为例 ,在完成土地利用状况和土地适宜性参评因子空间数据库基础上 ,集成土地适宜性综合指数模型和地块紧凑度模型 ,开发了基于地理信息系统的土地适宜性评价和土地利用控制决策支持系统。通过土地适宜性多因子空间分析 ,模拟大农业 (耕地、林地、园地 )各目标用地条件下各地块土地使用适宜度 ,并结合土地利用现状 ,得到单目标土地改造方案 ;再经模型优化和综合比较得出多目标土地利用改造规划可选方案。计算结果表明 ,福清市土地资源中开发改造为新耕地的潜力极有限 ,而用于开发改造新林地和园地的土地尚有226 80km₂ 和36 34km₂ ,为福清市土地利用改造规划和总体规划的制定和调整提供了定量依据。     

天然河流的二维等效扩散模型

通过对天然河流流带的拉伸或压缩处理，使之成为处处流速和水深均相等的理想河流，在此基础上建立了等效二维扩散模型。文中对建模方法和参数计算方法作了详细的介绍。