本地源尘污染成因的模式分析

对河门口片区污染源进行调查,采用经验证后表明适合攀枝花地区的山谷模式,对河门口片区的尘污染现状成因进行分析,研究了污染物种类、重点污染源类别、主要污染行业对片区内各控制点的影响,发现由于受山区地形影响,片区内各控制点污染状况受相邻污染源影响较大.     

论B-S期权定价模型在环境责任保险中的适用性

从回报函数角度分析环境责任保险的看跌期权性质,并总结其不同于看跌期权的特性,针对B-S模型假设与推导过程探究环境责任保险特殊性质对B-S模型使用的影响,验证B-S模型在环境责任保险定价中运用的合理性,并提出环境责任保险定价发展的合理化建议。     

基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用

土地利用指标的区域配置与部门配置是我国国土空间规划体系的核心问题。如何在贯彻落实国家意志和中央战略的前提下,根据我国不同类型自然地理区划和经济社会区划的发展实际,特别是根据城镇化格局定型区、发展型城镇化地区和收缩型城镇化地区等三类不同地区的土地利用的实际,充分顾及各级地方政府的发展意愿,优化配置各类用地指标,是本轮国土空间规划不可或缺的首要的基本任务。基于此,建立一个基于空间可计算一般均衡模型（SCGE）的多尺度、多区域、多情景国土空间规划模拟分析框架（CTSPM）,提出该框架在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的实际应用场景,以支持多种国家发展情景和土地指标分配方案下国土空间格局模拟分析,及其经济社会影响和生态环境影响分析,为各地区、各部门之间的土地指标“博弈”提供“辩论”平台,为科学编制国土空间规划以及深度理解国土空间安全的跨区域影响提供分析性框架。     

GIS和环境管理信息系统建设

结合地理信息系统的环境管理信息系统结构和功能形式，以贵阳市的大气环境管理信息系统建设为例，具体阐述了GIS基本功能应用，分析认为，深入结合地理信息系统与环境模型，才能促进环境管理信息系统向“决策支持”型和“专家”型方向发展，同时，环境信息的收集方式、共享程度和二次开发深度也将受到深刻的影响。     

水解酸化——生物接触氧化处理印染废水的动力学研究

水解酸化——接触氧化工艺在处理印染废水方面有得天独厚的条件,但其反应器内的动力学研究较少。在调查某印染厂废水生化处理系统的基础上,在实验室内建立了该印染厂废水生化处理工艺的模拟系统。选取合理的动力学模型后,通过改变整个生化系统的水力停留时间和容积负荷,研究了水解酸化反应器的微生物浓度、进出水基质浓度、微生物比增长速率之间的关系;研究了生物接触氧化反应器内单位面积填料基质去除速率、饱和基质浓度时单位面积填料最大基质去除速率、接触氧化反应器内进出口的基质浓度、不可生物降解物质的浓度、饱和常数之间的关系。结合实验数据,确定并计算了动力学模型的参数,最终得到了厌氧水解反应器和生物接触氧化反应器内的动力学方程。     

Econometric analysis of the impacts of climate change on the livestock production in Qinghai Province

This study aims to investigate the effect of the impact mechanism of climate change on the livestock production at small watershed level and county level with the Multi-level Model(MLM)in Qinghai Province.The result indicated that the gross livestock output value was greatly influenced by the climatic factors of the small watershed level.Higher temperature promoted also by the increase of precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration was found to be beneficial to the development of livestock production,except in some areas where temperature rise restrained the development of local livestock production to some degree when exceeding a certain level;besides,the impact of the socioeconomic factors on the livestock output value is obvious at the county level.The gross economic output measured with GDP has some inhibitory effects on the reinvestment of livestock production,while population growth promotes development of livestock production to some degree.The results not only provide scientific basis for the management of livestock production in Qinghai Province,but also provide reference for formulating the policies and adaptation measures targeted at climate change to promote the sustainable development of livestock production in other regions.     

污泥干化芦苇床渗滤液中CODCr和TP浓度预测模型

为便于水质管理,在大连开发区污水处理厂设立了1个传统污泥干化床和2个污泥干化芦苇床,根据系统出水ρ(COD_Cr)和ρ(TP)检测数据的平稳系列特点,采用ARIMA时间序列分析模型对出水ρ(COD_Cr)和ρ(TP)进行模拟和预测. 结果表明:ARIMA(1,0,0)模型可较好地模拟和预测出水ρ(COD_Cr)的变化,R2达0.577以上,预测相对误差在-10%~19%之间,实测值和预测值之比处于0.8~1.2之间;ARIMA(6,0,0)模型能较好地模拟和预测污泥处理湿地渗滤液出水ρ(TP)的变化,R2在0.487以上,预测相对误差在-4%~16%之间,实测值和预测值之比处于0.8~1.2之间. 研究显示,所构建的ARIMA模型可用于污泥处理湿地系统运行过程中渗滤液出水ρ(COD_Cr)和ρ(TP)的预测.      

Evaluation of health benefit using BenMAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city(land area:7287 km2)of Guangdong province in South China.The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion.During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010,the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality.In this paper,we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation,fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits.This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone,which provides more reliable results.The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations.The results show that the mean PM_2.5concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5μg/m~3 compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures.From the analysis,we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths,1869 cases of hospital admission,and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits.The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY,with the avoided premature death contributing 90%of this figure.The research demonstrates that Ben MAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making.     

行为安全视角下的氨泄漏事故分析

为了提高涉氨制冷企业的安全业绩,基于事故致因"2-4"模型分析典型氨泄漏事故的直接、间接、根本和根源原因。结果表明:氨泄漏事故的直接原因是操作人员在涉及氨制冷管道、有毒有害环境及带电作业中的违章操作和氨设备设施的不安全物态;间接原因是员工对于氨危险性认识的不足、较差的安全习惯以及安全意识不高;根本原因是组织缺失特定的安全管理组织程序,制度执行不力;根源原因可追溯到员工对安全的重要度、安全制度执行方式等安全文化元素理解不到位。进而提出实用性对策措施,为提高涉氨制冷企业安全管理水平提供理论依据与技术参考。