多通管塑挤胀形关键技术的研究

多通管是工业上应用量大面广的一种基础件,但其传统的制造工艺目前还只限于铸造、焊接和机加工等,从经济或技术的角度讲都显得比较落后.此文讨论了利用聚氨酯橡胶棒为胀形介质,采用塑挤胀形的复合工艺把无缝管坯一次成形为成品的加工方法,分析了多通管塑挤胀形的过程,讨论了冲头作用于管坯的压力、聚氨酯橡胶棒产生的内压和平衡缸应提供的背压三者间应具备的合理的关系.以使变形区处于最有利于变形的强烈的三向压应力和合适的偏应力状态,获得尽可能长的支管.     

一个实用的高速公路大气扩散模式

在高斯线源扩散模式的基础上，建立了一个适合高速公路大气污染源扩散特点的模式，并以沈阳环城高速公路环境影响评价中的应用为例，说明该模式的实用性和优越性．在建立该模式的过程中，应用了国外关于公路扩散试验的成果来确定和修正模式中的扩散参数．     

Obtaining Environmental Favourability Functions from Logistic Regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes them more useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions. Received: June 2005 / Revised: July 2005     

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys.     

中国土地资源生态环境质量状况分析

基于用数字环境模型对中国土地资源生态环境的质量评价,生成了中国土地资源生态环境综合评价图,分析了中国土地资源生态环境等级面积构成及分布状况,得出了中国土地资源生态环境质量最好的地区全部分布在东南沿海和四川盆地区,生态环境最适合人类生存的土地资源仅占我国土地资源总面积的１／３弱,１／３的土地资源面积养活了我国８０％以上的人口     

利用数学模式计算非离子氨浓度

根据我国颁布的《地面水环境质量标准非离子氨换算方法》，用Ｆｏｘｐｒｏ语言编程计算非离子氨浓度，提高监测数据处理率，减少计算误差．通过实例计算，程序运行正常，结果正确．     

Comparing species abundance models

Five regression models (Poisson, negative binomial, quasi-Poisson, the hurdle model and the zero-inflated Poisson) were used to assess the relationship between the abundance of a vulnerable plant species, Leionema ralstonii, and the environment. The methods differed in their capacity to deal with common properties of ecological data. They were assessed theoretically, and their predictive performance was evaluated with correlation, calibration and error statistics calculated within a bootstrap evaluation procedure that simulated performance for independent data.     

Determination and prediction of sediment yields from recession of the Holderness Coast, NE England

The rapidly eroding cliffs and foreshore of the Holderness Coast represent one of the largest sources of sediment discharging in the southern North Sea. For effective coastal management it is important to understand the sediment sources, transport pathways and depositional sinks. The sediment budget is regarded as one of the key information needs for sustainable planning and management. In order to quantify the sediment yield from recession of the Holderness Coast, digital photogrammetry has been used, together with nearshore bathymetric survey data, to produce a single DTM for a length of over 52 km of coastline. Other data including geological sections, sediment lithology, recession rates and the location of coastal defences have been added to the DTM to create a GIS for the Holderness Coast. The GIS has been used to predict the volume and nature of the sediment yield assuming that historical recession rates continue. The GIS can also be used to predict future yields using assumptions of accelerated recession or the implications of arrested retreat due to construction of defences.     

Multiscale Plume Transport from the Collapse of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001

The collapse of the world trade center (WTC) produced enhanced levels of airborne contaminants in New York City and nearby areas on September 11, 2001 through December, 2001. This catastrophic event revealed the vulnerability of the urban environment, and the inability of many existing air monitoring systems to operate efficiently in a crisis. The contaminants released circulated within the street canyons, but were also lifted above the urban canopy and transported over large distances, reflecting the fact that pollutant transport affects multiple scales, from single buildings through city blocks to mesoscales. In this study, ground-and space-based observations were combined with numerical weather forecast fields to initialize fine-scale numerical simulations. The effort is aimed at reconstructing pollutant dispersion from the WTC in New York City to surrounding areas, to provide means for eventually evaluating its effect on population and environment. Atmospheric dynamics were calculated with the multi-grid Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), covering scales from 250 m to 300 km and contaminant transport was studied using the Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport (HYPACT) model that accepts RAMS meteorological output. The RAMS/HYPACT results were tested against PM2.5 observations from the roofs of public schools in New York City (NYC), Landsat images, and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) retrievals. Calculations accurately reproduced locations and timing of PM2.5 peak aerosol concentrations, as well as plume directionality. By comparing calculated and observed concentrations, the effective magnitude of the aerosol source was estimated. The simulated pollutant distributions are being used to characterize levels of human exposure and associated environmental health impacts.     

南岳森林群落生物多样性研究(Ⅵ)上封寺森林群落植物物种相对多度分布格局

本文应用几何级数分布、分割线段、对数级数分布和对数正态分布等4种模型研究了南岳上封寺森林群落植物物种相对多度的分布格局。结果表明,几何级数分布模型适宜拟合乔木层和草本层,而不适宜于灌木层;分割线段模型适宜于乔木层,其中,多度一频度模型还适于草本层;对数级数分布模型完全适宜于拟合任何层次;对数正态分布模型仅适宜于拟合乔木层。此外,α-指数值介于季雨林-稀树草原之间。