Assessment of present and future risk to Italian forests and human health: Modelling and mapping

A review of ozone pollution in Italy shows levels largely above the thresholds established by EU regulation for vegetation and human health protection. The Italian air quality monitoring network appears quantitatively inadequate to cover all the territorial surface, because of scarcity and unequal distribution of monitoring sites. By applying the integrated assessment model RAINS-Italy to the year 2000, the whole of Italy exceeds the AOT40 critical level for forest, while Northern and central areas show strong potential of O₃ impact on human health with ∼11% of territory >10 O₃-induced premature deaths. Two scenarios for the year 2020, the Current Legislation and the Maximum Technical Feasible Reduction, show a reduction of AOT40Forest by 29% and 44%, SOMO35 by 31% and 47%, and O₃-induced premature deaths by 32% and 48%, compared to 2000. RAINS-Italy can be used to improve the map quality and cover areas not reached by the national monitoring network.     

Substance-related environmental monitoring

Background  Due to the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive and other legal regulations (e.g., national laws like the German Federal Soil Protection Act), but also due to the implementation of the new EU chemicals management system REACH, environmental monitoring will gain increasing importance for the surveillance of environmental quality as well as for the assessment of chemicals. Against this background, the Work Group on ‘Environmental Monitoring’ of the Division of ‘Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology’ within the German Chemical Society has compiled a position paper on substance-related environmental monitoring. Scope  Core elements of this position paper are the definitions of important terms like monitoring, exposure monitoring, effect monitoring, and integrated monitoring. Moreover, temporal and spatial aspects (monitoring of spatial distributions, trend monitoring, and retrospective monitoring) and their applications are discussed. The main focus of this position paper is the coverage of aspects which have to be observed for the preparation and implementation of a monitoring program. Essential is the clear specification of the targets of the monitoring which determine the development of the monitoring concept and its realization, e.g., if environmental media (compartments) or organisms are most appropriate as samples for the aim of the study. Of course, also the properties of the target substances are important (e.g., lipophilicity/bioaccumulation as pre-requisite for an exposure monitoring with organisms). Finally, the monitoring phases of sample planning, sampling, storage and transport of samples, selection of analytical methods, quality assurance measures as well as reporting are discussed. Perspectives  An important issue for the future is to link the quantification of chemicals in environmental compartments (exposure and pollution monitoring) more closely to the study of biological effects (effect monitoring) than has been the case up to now. Furthermore, by inclusion of a spatial differentiation, a comprehensive evaluation of the state of an ecosystem can be obtained and the relevance of the results improved. Practical examples of monitoring studies which illustrate various aspects covered in this position paper will be presented in a series of publications by members of the Work Group in the following issues of this journal.

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

River channel network design for drought and flood control: A case study of Xiaoqinghe River basin, Jinan City, China

Vulnerability of river channels to urbanization has been lessened by the extensive construction of artificial water control improvements. The challenge, however, is that traditional engineering practices on isolated parts of a river may disturb the hydrologic continuity and interrupt the natural state of ecosystems. Taking the Xiaoqinghe River basin as a whole, we developed a river channel network design to mitigate river risks while sustaining the river in a state as natural as possible. The river channel risk from drought during low-flow periods and flood during high-flow periods as well as the potential for water diversion were articulated in detail. On the basis of the above investigation, a network with “nodes” and “edges” could be designed to relieve drought hazard and flood risk respectively. Subsequently, the shortest path algorithm in the graph theory was applied to optimize the low-flow network by searching for the shortest path. The effectiveness assessment was then performed for the low-flow and high-flow networks, respectively. For the former, the network connectedness was evaluated by calculating the “gamma index of connectivity” and “alpha index of circuitry”; for the latter, the ratio of flood-control capacity to projected flood level was devised and calculated. Results show that the design boosted network connectivity and circuitry during the low-flow periods, indicating a more fluent flow pathway, and reduced the flood risk during the high-flow periods.     

Assessing water use and quality through youth participatory research in a rural Andean watershed

Water availability, use and quality in a rural watershed of the Colombian Andes were investigated through participatory research involving local youth. Research included the quantification of disaggregated water use at the household level; comparison of water use with availability; monitoring water quality of streams, community water intakes and household faucets; and the determination of land use – water quality interactions. Youth were involved in all aspects of the research from design to implementation, dissemination of results and remediation options. Quantification of domestic and on-farm water use, and water availability indicated that water availability was sufficient during the study period, but that only an 8% decrease in dry season supply would result in shortages. Elevated conductivity levels in the headwaters were related to “natural” bank erosion, while downstream high conductivity and coliform levels were associated with discharges from livestock stalls and poorly maintained septic tanks in the stream buffer zone. Through the involvement of youth as co-investigators, the knowledge generated by the research was appropriated at the local level. Community workshops led by local youth promoted water conservation and water quality protection practices based on research, and resulted in broader community participation in water management. The approach involving youth in research stimulated improved management of both land and water resources, and could be applied in small rural watersheds in developed or developing countries.     

From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization

Land cover change has always had a central role in land change science. This central role is largely the result of the possibilities to map and characterize land cover based on observations and remote sensing. This paper argues that more attention should be given to land use and land functions and linkages between these. Consideration of land functions that provide a wide range of goods and services makes more integrated assessments of land change possible. The increasing attention to multifunctional land use is another incentive to develop methods to assess changes in land functions. A number of methods to quantify and map the spatial extent of land use and land functions are discussed and the implications for modeling are identified based on recent model approaches in land change science. The mixed use of land cover, land use and land function in maps and models leads to inconsistencies in land change assessments. Explicit attention to the non-linear relations between land cover, land use and land function is essential to consistently address land change. New methods to map and quantify land function dynamics will enhance our ability to understand and model land system change and adequately inform policies and planning.     

人工神经网络方法在拟建小区域环境质量评价中的应用

人工神经网络的评价方法用于小区域环境质量评价中,根据本地区特点因地制宜地选择环境质量参数,代入模型中进行环境质量评价及预测,对用于环境质量评价的BP人工神经网络模型进行了改进,即对网络模型的训练样本进行了扩充,从而提高了模型的抗干扰能力和准确性.将改进了的BP人工神经网络模型应用于四川省资阳市沱江二桥拟建项目小区域的大气、地表水环境质量评价中, 对该市小区域大气、地表水环境质量状况进行评价,评价结果表明,BP人工神经网络模型用于环境质量评价是可行的,且评价结论客观,评价模型普遍适用.     

基于模糊神经网络的机动车驾驶教练员职业适宜性研究

提出应用模糊神经网络系统,建构教练员职业适宜性的3个要素(即心理素质、驾驶技能和知识的表达阐述能力)的学习样本,分析"三要素"的8项特征参数指标——场依存性、速度估计能力、交通安全意识、简单反应、选择反应、跟踪能力、行车注意力、表达阐述能力等,使用K-均值法对实验样本进行初始分类,形成标准学习样本,使用该样本对所构建系统进行训练和调试。利用经调试训练后的系统,依据所测教练员的心理、心理参数对其职业适宜性进行评价。试验表明:建立的教练员职业适宜性仿真模型能取得很好的评价效果。     

我国危险化学品安全监管网络整合研究

分析我国危险化学品安全监管网络的特征,指出安全监管网络中存在的法律法规、监管部门信息共享、合作协调机制等方面存在的突出问题,提出了我国危险化学品安全监管网络整合的主要对策,包括建立监管部门之间的常态合作协调机制、无缝隙化城市安全监管平台以及跨区域合作监管机制。危险化学品安全监管网络整合,对提高我国危险化学品监管水平具有重要意义。     

基于粗糙集-神经网络的矿山地质环境影响评价模型及应用

采用衡山白果地区石膏矿山的11个评价指标,综合运用粗糙集和神经网络理论,构建了基于粗糙集-神经网络(RS-ANN)的矿山地质环境影响评价模型,对RSES软件约简的数据和无约简的数据采用EasyNN-plus软件进行预测评价。神经网络模型的输入属性为8个,而粗糙集-神经网络模型的输入属性为6个,训练样本均为13个,预测样本均为4个,前者的平均预测精度为1.85%～24.86%,后者为1.23%～15.28%。研究发现,粗糙集在保留关键信息的前提下可有效地对数据表进行约简,约简后的神经网络预测结果与实际情况吻合,并比无约简时总体精度有较大幅度提高。