Geographic Analysis of Forest Health Indicators Using Spatial Scan Statistics

Geographically explicit analysis tools are needed to assess forest health indicators that are measured over large regions. Spatial scan statistics can be used to detect spatial or spatiotemporal clusters of forests representing hotspots of extreme indicator values. This paper demonstrates the approach through analyses of forest fragmentation indicators in the southeastern United States and insect and pathogen indicators in the Pacific Northwest United States. The scan statistic detected four spatial clusters of fragmented forest including a hotspot in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. Three recurring clusters of insect and pathogen occurrence were found in the Pacific Northwest. Spatial scan statistics are a powerful new tool that can be used to identify potential forest health problems.     

Detecting Changes in Natural Resources Using Land Condition Trend Analysis Data

The Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) program is the US Army's standard for land inventory and monitoring, employing standardized methods of natural resources data collection, analyses, and reporting designed to meet multiple goals and objectives. Critical to using LCTA data in natural resources management decisions is the ability of the LCTA protocols to detect changes in natural resources. To quantify the ability of LCTA protocols to detect resource changes, power analysis techniques were used to estimate minimum detectable effect sizes (MDES) for selected primary and secondary management variables for three Army installations. MDES for a subset of primary variables were estimated using data from 27 installation LCTA programs. MDES for primary and secondary variables varied widely. However, LCTA programs implemented at larger installations with lower sampling intensities detected changes in installation resources as well as programs implemented at smaller more intensively sampled installations. As a national monitoring program that is implemented at individual installations, LCTA protocols provide relatively consistent monitoring data to detect changes in resources despite diverse resource characteristics and implementation constraints.     

The Information Cycle as a Framework for Defining Information Goals for Water-Quality Monitoring

/ The necessity to tailor information becomes increasingly urgent as the information revolution continues to generate ever-increasing flows of data and so-called information. From European experiences, a new approach for monitoring system design is suggested in this paper. In this approach, careful and detailed specification of information needs is a major contributing factor to the effectiveness of information products. To develop better specifications for information products, the process of collecting and transforming data into useful information requires careful thought and guidance. A dialogue between information users on one hand and information producers on the other is essential. This dialogue can be based on the information cycle, describing the continuous process from specifying information needs for water management and a strategy to collect information through data collection and data analysis up to utilization of information by water management. By following the respective steps in the information cycle, the process of information gathering can be completed. The cyclic character provides a quantitative means of connecting monitoring system design and operations with the information expectations and/or products required by management.     

组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题，结合序列本身的特点，利用世界能源消费的历史数据，采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明，提高了模型的拟合和预测精度，拓宽了应用范围。该模型可对能源的消费趋势进行预测，为科学分析能源结构提供依据。     

网络安全中的蜜罐技术和蜜网技术

当前，网络安全正在受到严重的威胁，传统的防御技术存在其固有的被动防御的缺陷，而蜜罐技术正以其主动防御的特性受到越来越多的关注。本文说明了其在网络安全中所起到的防御作用和通过收集信息而起到的研究作用，讨论了涉及到的诱骗机制、数据控制、数据捕获和数据分析等关键技术以及实际应用中的部署方案。     

低周荷载下型钢混凝土柱抗剪性能智能分析

为了研究型钢混凝土短柱的抗震性能，通过21根SRC柱在低周反复荷载作用下的剪切黏结破坏试验结果，在利用灰色关联理论进行模型输入变量选择的基础上，建立了其基于改进神经网络模型的受剪承载力分析模型，进而研究了混凝土抗压强度、腹板宽度、轴压比及箍筋间距等因素对SRC柱抗剪能力的影响规律，并对SRC柱的受剪承载力进行了预测。结果表明，所提方法能够反映受剪承载力与影响因素间的非线性变化规律，可供SRC柱在低周往复荷载作用下的受剪承载力分析参考。     

我国民航灾害应急联动机制优化研究

针对我国现行的民航灾害应急联动救援体系所存在着多头指挥、组织形式不明确、责任关系不协调、信息沟通不顺畅、资源调度不合理等问题,运用文献检索、理论分析与实地调研相结合的方法,笔者提出优化思路:民航灾害应急联动机制应以各级民航管理当局的飞行事故应急指挥部为主要指挥决策者,采用虚拟的网络式组织形式,理顺联动单位的责任与关系,将应急联动的信息网络与各地突发公共危机事件的信息平台接轨,成立全国统一的、具有双重功能的民航灾害应急资源调度中心。其中,对民航灾害应急联动虚拟网络组织形式的设计,较好地改进了现行组织的效率,体现了快速反应和协调行动的要求。     

三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝位移反演分析与安全预测

本文研究了基于综合应用人工神经网络和演化算法的位移反演分析方法,并将此方法应用于三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝的变形反演分析中。以茅坪溪一期工程原型观测成果为依据,反演出能够正确反映坝体变形特性的邓肯-张EB模型参数,从而预测了施工期末和蓄水期末该坝的变形特性,并基于总应力法研究了心墙水力劈裂破坏发生的可能性,为茅坪溪堆石坝运行期的安全生产提供依据。研究结果表明,茅坪溪心墙堆石坝不会发生水力劈裂破坏,该坝蓄水后虽然水压上升,但心墙仍是安全的。     

矿井通风网络解算可视化软件研究

采用面向对象编程语言Visual Basic6.0为开发工具,以Access为后台数据库,开发了具有风机优选功能的矿井通风网络解算软件。该软件承袭了Windows系统应用程序界面直观、交互性好的特点,集矿井通风网络解算、自然风压计算、风机自动选型以及经济断面优化等功能于一体,并辅以强大的数据管理系统,为矿山通风设计和管理工作提供了便利工具。     

一种机(针)织物与非织造布网络互穿复合材料的研究

本文主要对机织物与非织造布复合材料的网络互穿结构进行了描述,并从材料选择、单体试制、复合工艺方面进行了实践,研制出了较高透气性能和剥离强度的复合材料。