BP网络马尔可夫模型的水质预测研究——基于灰色关联分析

根据汾河水质的实际情况,应用BP网络马尔可夫模型对水质进行预测。采用拉依达准则剔除样本集异常数据,结合水质污染的实际情况,以COD为参考序列,应用灰色关联度对常规指标进行分析,确定BP网络的输入节点。在BP网络预测结果的基础上采用马尔可夫链对残差序列进行修正。经过关联度分析,确定氨氮、挥发酚、水温、BOD5及COD自身作为BP网络的输入节点,解决了多变量复杂系统建模过程中BP网络输入节点无法自动寻优的问题,使得BP网络的预测结果更加符合实际。对预测误差较大的样本采用马尔可夫修正误差残值,使得相对误差从-15.43%改善到了-15%,修正值更接近于实测值。BP网络马尔可夫模型,结合了BP网络和马尔可夫的优点,提高了预测的精度。     

应对重大灾害的轴辐式应急物资储备网络体系

分析了应对重大灾害的应急物资需求的特点和我国现有应急物资储备体系的现状和不足,基于轴辐网络优势,构建了轴辐式应急物资储备网络体系,分析了应急轴辐网络储备体系运行的四个阶段,同时提出了建立轴辐式应急物资储备网络相关具体措施建议,实现中央和地方应急储备库物资、各职能部门储备物资、军队物资、各社会团体储备物资、国内外捐助物资以及企业物资生产能力储备等专业应急物资储备和社会应急物资储备的有效整合,以有助于在较短时间内积聚大量应急物资,扩大应急物资的服务辐射范围,提高应急物资调度效率,以有效应对各类重大灾害。     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

基于合作博弈论的感潮河网区污染物排放总量削减分配模型研究

在给定污染物削减目标的情况下,如何确定各排污区域的分配比例一直是污染物总量分配技术的核心问题,博弈论是解决这一问题的有效尝试。采用合作博弈论方法,以感潮河网区各排污区域为研究对象,充分考虑各区域的污染治理成本、排污策略与环境质量的相互影响,建立了在给定污染物总削减比例条件下各区域环境合作的博弈模型,计算了各种可能联盟的特征函数值,利用Shapley值法进行合作收益的公平分配。结合珠江三角洲西江-石岐河河网区3个区域的环境合作案例说明削减合作的可行性,在总削减比例为15%的约束下,3区域合作削减比例是20.77%、12.82%和12.99%,与合作前相比,3个区域合作后环境成本分别减少了11.83%、2.13%和2%。     

平原河网地区农村生活污染入河机制

以太滆运河流域前黄镇和雪堰镇为研究区,设计农村生活非点源污染调查问卷,采用随机抽样的方法,调查了39个行政村中85个自然村的农村生活污染情况。通过对问卷的统计分析得到了厕所使用类型的比例、化粪池中上清液和固体残渣的去向以及生活垃圾处置等信息。在对农村生活污染进行分类的基础上,估算出该地区农村生活污染入河系数为:CODCr,6.6%～13.3%;TN,18.1%～18.6%;TP,8.2%～12.5%。     

热带气旋影响下的电网应急案例框架构建研究

在我国电网防灾抗灾体系中,因风灾等自然灾害影响具有持续性,造成应急准备阶段对灾害演变过程认知不足而引发响应阶段抢修故障。热带气旋是导致电网破坏严重的自然灾害之一,近些年发生率高于以往同期。风灾是阶段变化的,情景又是动态演变的。针对热带气旋的影响,考虑其不同影响阶段构建应急案例,可在应急响应行动过程,有效准确的面对风灾特性而带来的抢修故障。提出电网风灾的案例框架构建方法,并结合风灾的特点进行框架分类,可有效应对灾害的不确定性从而增加案例可用度。同时对风灾案例库建设、抗台演习演练与实际应对三种目的下的案例进行属性约简,依热带气旋演变,将案例个体拆分化采取逐步多次检索生成可行预案,从而提高响应效率。     

Multi-level coordination of climate change adaptation: by national hierarchical steering or by regional network governance?

The institutional structure and public service delivery apparatus required to meet the future effects of climate change already exist in Norway. However, there are huge challenges in coordinating these institutions at different authority levels for climate change adaptation purposes. Based upon a broad case study, this article presents how local actors consider the multi-level coordination of different levels of government and policy sectors to function today, which are the mechanisms that are used and what are the coordination challenges that are identified. Based upon the challenges revealed, this article discusses how best can the government-level institutions be organised for better goal attainment. We argue here that the elected regional level in Norway – the counties – has a huge potential to act as a multi-level coordination actor.     

灰色决策在大气监测点优选中的应用

运用多维测度空间概念,拓广了灰色决策原理,使之适用于大气监测点的优选,并运用于实际工作之中.     

Monitoring trihalomethanes in water by differential ultraviolet spectroscopy

Ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy is a valid surrogate for monitoring the formation of disinfection by-products (DBPs). Sodium thiosulphate is commonly used to remove disinfectant residual. However, it produces interferences with absorbance in the UV region. Relationship between trihalomethane (THM) formation and differential UV absorbance (−ΔA _λ ) was explored in the presence of sodium thiosulphate. Chlorination of two synthetic and five natural waters was carried out. Sodium thiosulphate showed high UV absorption at 254 nm. This effect can be overcome selecting a higher wavelength. Optimum wavelength varied being about 290 nm for fulvic acid and 300 nm for humic acid type natural organic matter. Correlation between THMs formation and −ΔA _λ was linear for all the analysed samples. Regression curves do not pass through zero indicating the existence of a threshold absorbance decreasment. Once it is surpassed THM release begins. Chlorination of surface waters showed that the presence of bromide significantly increases THMs vs. −ΔA _λ slope. Furthermore, slope decreased with the aromaticity–hydrophobicity of organic matter.     

Fracture Characterization Using Borehole Radar: Numerical Modeling

Forward modeling of borehole radar data for a series of synthetic discrete-fracture network (DFN) models provides a conceptual framework for interpreting experimental field data at fractured rock sites. A finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) radar wave propagation model was developed for this purpose. Synthetic examples demonstrate the utility of single-hole reflection-mode and cross-hole transmission-mode borehole radar for (1) identification of fracture location and orientation, and (2) identification of fracture pore-fluid properties, which might change as a result of tracer tests or flooding exercises in support of resource development or site remediation. A two-dimensional, synthetic DFN was generated statistically based on hypothetical distributions of fracture length, orientation, aperture, permeability, and inter-connectivity. The DFN includes a zone of permeable fractures embedded within a network of lower-permeability fractures and a low-permeability rock matrix. We modeled the unconnected and non-permeable fractures as being filled with freshwater. To simulate tracer experiments, contaminant releases, or engineered-remediation processes, we considered alternately the inter-connected, permeable fractures to be filled with freshwater air, or saline water (tracer). Synthetic radar data sets for both single-hole reflection and cross-hole transmission modes were generated. The features in synthetic radargrams were then examined and compared to the DFN model to evaluate the likelihood of identifying fracture location, orientation, and pore fluid in field situations. This comparison demonstrates that (1) the replacement of freshwater with saline water in permeable fractures generally increases the amplitude of reflections from permeable, connected fractures; and (2) in general, radar reflection-mode data contains more information about fracture properties than transmission-mode data.