金属矿井热害评价体系与评价方法

为减小金属矿井热害对井下人员安全及井下开采工作的不利影响,需对井下热害进行评价和预测。基于文献调查和专家评价方法,结合工程实际,利用层次分析法构建金属矿井采矿热害评价体系,从生产能力、地质条件、矿井通风、地理环境四个方面提出17个评价指标。在分析层次分析法（AHP）确定权重不足的基础上,结合物元分析理论,建立确定金属矿井热害评价各因素权重的物元分析模型。在各评价因素权重确定的基础上,以BP神经网络作为评价工具,构建金属矿井热害综合评价预测模型。最后,以某矿山为例,进行评价和预测分析。结果表明,基于物元分析和AHP的BP深井网络评价模型预测误差最大只有3%。     

基于ANP的煤矿员工非意向不安全行为影响因素研究

为量化分析非意向不安全行为的影响因素,基于专家判断法和网络层次分析法（ANP）,运用超级决策（SD）软件分析评价了30个因素对非意向不安全行为的影响。结果表明:对国有大中型煤炭企业而言,个体特征、组织及任务、机械设备对非意向不安全行为有很大的影响,环境因素对非意向不安全行为影响权重相对较小;应急反应、应急演练、信息传递、注意力、监督反馈、安全警示、工作经验、应急设施、作业规范、疲劳程度等10个因素是企业干预、控制非意向不安全行为的重点关注因素。     

Social learning for sustainability: supporting sustainable business in Brazil regarding multiple social actors,relationships and interests

Finding solutions for complex environmental, economic and social issues in organisations relies on coordinated actions among several social actors that are involved in the sustainable development web and demands that they learn new business methods. In this scenario, which involves multiple social actors, relationships, contexts and interests, social learning has emerged as a hybrid approach to resolving complex environmental and social problems. Such an approach marks a different situation for organisations whose focus is not only on supporting such problem resolution but also on transforming such crises into opportunities to generate sustainable products and services. Thus, this study discusses how one of the largest companies in Latin America’s chemical segment formed a network with 23 social actors and is socially learning to deal with the dialectic between return on investments for its shareholders and benefits for its stakeholders. Research was conducted based on Boje’s narrative analysis. The data was built through interviews, informal conversations, textual and audio-visual documents and non-participant observation. This paper discusses the concept and describes the social learning process for sustainability (in this case, for sustainable agriculture) from the viewpoint of a for-profit organisation. In this manner, this study contributes to strengthening the connection between social learning and sustainability.     

江苏省农村环境监测现状及“十四五”工作建议

农村生态环境保护是实现乡村振兴不可缺少的一环,是保障农业农村高质量发展的基础。基于"十三五"江苏省农村环境监测体系和2020年全省农村环境质量监测结果,分析了全省农村环境监测现状。指出,江苏省农村环境监测工作存在监测任务较重、基础信息获取难度较大、水环境监测代表性不足、监测指标单一以及对农业面源污染治理成效评估支撑不够等问题;提出,强化部门数据共享与信息整合、完善农村环境例行监测网络、构建农业面源污染监测技术体系、探索特色指标监测研究、加强农村环境监测人才队伍建设等"十四五"江苏省农村环境监测工作建议,以期摸清农业面源污染现状,为全省农村生态环境治理提供技术支撑。     

国内外旅游网络平台研究进展与基金项目资助

通过对国内外1979—2019年的831篇文献进行梳理、归纳与总结,从年度载文数量、来源期刊类型、作者发文篇数等6个方面入手,分析比较了国内外旅游网络平台的研究现状、研究热点及进展,研究依次分为起步阶段、拓展阶段与提升阶段。结果表明:①国外对旅游网络平台的研究已进入提升阶段,国内正处于拓展阶段。②国内外均采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法,国内定量的数学模型相对简单,国外定量的数学模型相对复杂。③国内外“以人为本”为切入点研究旅游活动主体——旅游者的需求,国内侧重旅游网络平台的设计和营销及实例等,国外侧重研究个性化定制的旅游网络平台。通过对国内外基金项目资助的发文量分析,展望了国内外旅游网络平台发展的新动态。     

Scaling up private land conservation to meet recovery goals for grassland birds

Long-term population declines have elevated recovery of grassland avifauna to among the highest conservation priorities in North America. Because most of the Great Plains is privately owned, recovery of grassland bird populations depends on voluntary conservation with strong partnerships between private landowners and resource professionals. Despite large areas enrolled in voluntary practices through U.S. Department of Agriculture's Lesser Prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) Initiative (LPCI), the effectiveness of Farm Bill investments for meeting wildlife conservation goals remains an open question. Our objectives were to evaluate extents to which Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and LPCI-grazing practices influence population densities of grassland birds; estimate relative contributions of practices to regional bird populations; and evaluate percentages of populations conserved relative to vulnerability of species. We designed a large-scale impact-reference study and used the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program to evaluate bird population targets of the Playa Lakes Joint Venture. We used point transect distance sampling to estimate density and population size for 35 species of grassland birds on private lands enrolled in native or introduced CRP plantings and LPCI-prescribed grazing. Treatment effects indicated CRP plantings increased densities of three grassland obligates vulnerable to habitat loss, and LPCI grazing increased densities of four species requiring heterogeneity in dense, tall-grass structure (α = 0.1). Population estimates in 2016 indicated the practices conserved breeding habitat for 4.5 million birds (90% CI: 4.0–5.1), and increased population sizes of 16 species , totaling 1.8 million birds (CI: 1.4–2.4). Conservation practices on private land benefited the most vulnerable grassland obligate species (AIC_c weight = 0.53). By addressing habitat loss and degradation in agricultural landscapes, conservation on private land provides a solution to declining avifauna of North America and scales up to meet population recovery goals for the most imperiled grassland birds.     

基于BP神经网络的水环境承载力预警研究——以北运河为例

为了预测水环境承载力未来可能出现的超载状态并提出警告,达到水环境风险管控的目的,本文构建了基于BP神经网络的水环境承载力预警方法体系,并在北运河流域开展了实证研究.所构建预警模型包括COD、氨氮、总磷承载力预警子模型和水资源承载力预警子模型,且模型拟合效果较好（平均绝对百分比误差在20%左右）.研究结果表明：朝阳区、海淀区等8个行政区落在了红灯重警区域,水环境承载力超载状况最为严重;位于北运河中下游的石景山区、广阳区、北辰区和香河县处于橙灯中警区域;昌平区、顺义区等5个行政区处于黄色轻警区域;怀柔区和延庆区处于绿色无警区域,状况较好.最后,为了排除警情,基于双向调控的原则,本文从水环境全过程控制角度,分别对各区域提出了调控区域人口规模及经济发展方式、治理面源污染等具体排警措施.     

河网水源生态湿地水氢氧同位素分异特征

为揭示河网水源生态湿地中水力流程沿途和植物床-沟壕系统内部水同位素分异特征,于2019年8月夏季湿雨期,沿水力流程梯度采集嘉兴市石臼漾湿地、贯泾港湿地、海宁市长水塘湿地和泰山港湿地这4个根孔型水源生态湿地上层水样,于2020年1月冬季干冷期采集泰山港湿地植物床-沟壕系统内部沟壕上层水样和植物床潜水样品.测定氘（δD）和δ¹⁸ O丰度,运用同位素技术和数理统计方法解析湿地水体水同位素分布和组成特征,并探明植物床-沟壕系统对水同位素分异的影响.结果表明：①河网水同位素时空变化很大程度上受到不同水源补给和蒸发富集作用的影响,湿地敞水区水线与邻近区域大气降水线相比,湿地区水氢氧同位素呈现富集特征;②通过多种数理统计手段结合散点图并做模型假设诊断分析,发现在4个湿地的区域尺度和每个湿地内部的局域尺度,水氢氧同位素丰度及组成在垂向维度和水平维度大多呈现复杂的非线性变化,在区域尺度上,垂向维度的水位高程较水平维度的水力流程长度对水同位素的分布影响更大,而在局域尺度内,水力流程驱动的影响往往更大;③异质性较强的湿地根孔生态净化区相较于其他功能区其水同位素相对更加富集;④由芦苇等根系发达的植物所形成的地下大孔隙网络、富含粘土的基质土壤和植物床上的植物对湿地水氢氧同位素丰度具有显著影响,因此,在植物床-沟壕系统内部,出水侧的低位小沟相较于进水侧的高位小沟其水同位素偏轻;⑤植物床-沟壕系统中水同位素丰度的突变点可能预示着水体净化的拐点;⑥植物床-沟壕系统潜水中氘盈余（d-excess）明显高于沟水相应值,且潜水变异系数远大于沟水,湿地根孔生态净化区的氘盈余呈现夏季湿热雨季偏负、冬季干冷旱季偏正的季节性差异,反映了湿地水汽来源的季节性差异和内部同位素分馏行为的空间差异.研究结果为人们认识人工湿地中水同位素分布特征、水力流态及提升湿地运行效果提供参考依据,并为探索湿地水质提升关键技术提供新思路.本研究表明水同位素技术在剖析湿地水文学方面具有可靠的巨大潜力.     

基于UKF的深井监测移动节点定位算法

针对线性系统理论的监测定位技术误差较大且又无法实时监测深井人员及移动设备的位置问题,提出一种基于非线性函数不敏卡尔曼滤波（UKF）移动节点定位算法（U-MPA）。在建立U-MPA监测系统及巷道模型的基础上,采用UKF方法对RSSI滤波测距,通过局部坐标系,实现对移动节点实时定位监测;同时,通过改变锚节点间距密度,实现不同定位精度要求。仿真实验表明:U-MPA算法相比RSSI算法定位误差有明显减小,U-MPA算法的平均定位偏差为RSSI算法的44%。     

基于PSO优化BP神经网络的钻井动态风险评估方法

传统钻井动态风险评估严重依赖于专家主观判断、结果大多是定性或半定量,无法满足深井复杂地层钻井安全需求。针对该问题,研究建立了基于PSO优化BP神经网络的钻井动态风险评估方法。通过对录井资料的监测分析,实时判断井下风险发生的类型并定量计算风险发生概率,可以在风险发生的早期给出预警信息,及时指导风险调控措施的开展。海上BD气田的实例分析表明,基于构建的动态风险评估模型得到的风险预测结果与实际风险发生情况相符合,说明建立的模型是合理可行的。该模型对于钻井作业过程中动态风险评估具有一定的参考价值。