含硫气田井喷事故行动计划(IAP)编制研究

本文对国内外事故行动计划的研究进展进行了系统性总结,分析了含硫气田井喷事故发生的原因以及特点.结合我国现行的事故应急工作体系,将事故行动计划应用在含硫气田井喷事故应急工作中,提出了针对含硫气田井喷事故的事故行动计划编制方法,建立了包括现状分析、设立事故目标、确定应急组织体系和职责、制定应急处置措施、调配应急资源、开展评估与监控在内的含硫气田井喷事故行动计划编制技术体系.事故行动计划的制定与实施,可有效提高含硫气田应急工作的针对性和指导性,对含硫气田井喷事故应急工作具有重要作用.     

Compliance of Australian threatened species recovery plans with legislative requirements

Recovery plans are the main documents supporting management decision-making for threatened species. We evaluated Australian recovery plans to assess their appropriateness as conservation and management planning instruments. Six legislative requirements (species information and general requirements, species distribution and location, known and potential threats, objectives, performance criteria and actions, duration of the plan, and estimated costs of plan implementation) were used to assess the degree of compliance of recovery plans with the relevant legislation. We assessed all 236 official recovery plans which had been adopted as at January 2006. The results showed that plans were most compliant regarding the setting of objectives, performance criteria, recovery actions, and duration of plan. Most plans included a single performance criterion that was generally related to the population status of target species. Improvement is required in relation to identification of current threats and critical habitats, and the establishment of basic elements of monitoring and evaluation for measuring recovery progress. Gaps in ecological information are the main factors affecting adequate compliance with legislative requirements as opposed to managerial information (e.g. clarity in establishing the implementation schedule, costs and resource allocation). Planning deficiencies could be addressed by improving the recovery planning guidelines and more carefully reviewing the drafting and adoption of new plans.     

Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

城乡一体化背景下经济发展与城乡统筹的互动关系分析——以大连市为例

基于1992—2008年大连市经济发展和城乡统筹的统计数据,运用主成分分析法、H-P滤波法、协整分析法、Granger因果关系检验法和脉冲响应分析法分析了大连市经济发展与城乡统筹之间的互动关系。结果表明,大连市经济发展与城乡统筹之间存在一种双向、互为因果的互动关系。经济发展不会自动促进城乡差距缩小,相反在中长期内还会加大城乡差距。根据所得结论,给出了相关建议。     

浅析环境规划中的干系人参与

干系人是指在环境规划过程中所涉及到的利益相关的公众和组织,按具体职责的不同分为规划师(专家)、政府、排污企业、社区(公众)和其他相关者五类,介绍了干系人所具有的资源,并分析了干系人组成的整体性、有序性和动态性特征.根据不同的干系人种类,具体分析了他们在环境规划中的角色和职责.     

Optimal environmental policy for waste disposal and recycling when firms are not compliant

We investigate a model that considers disposal and recycling activities after the consumption of products. In the field, the deposit–refund (D–R) policy has been considered as an ideal policy for internalizing disposal costs, which can result in the realization of the first-best policy. However, the possibility of firms' illegal disposal has been neglected. We introduce a monitoring cost to prevent firms from disposing of collected residuals illegally and induce the second-best D–R policy. We find that the relation between the monitoring problem for firms and the price of the recycling market brings about a variation in the optimal level of the refunds (which is typically smaller than the first-best level). Further, we investigate an alternative policy that requires producers to take-back residuals and show how this policy works equivalently to the second-best D–R policy by applying the theory of the tradable rights market.     

Framework for integration of urban planning, strategic environmental assessment and ecological planning for urban sustainability within the context of China

Sustainable development or sustainability has been highlighted as an essential principle in urban master planning, with increasing recognition that uncontrollable urbanization may well give rise to various issues such as overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem destruction, environmental pollution and large-scale climate change. Thus, it is deemed necessary to modify the existing urban and regional administrative system so as to cope with the challenges urban planning is being confronted with and realize the purpose of urban sustainability. This paper contributed to proposing a mechanism which helps to make urban planning with full consideration of issues with respect to sustainable development. We suggested that the integration of urban planning, SEA and ecological planning be a multi-win strategy to offset deficiency of each mentioned political tool being individually applied. We also proposed a framework where SEA and ecological planning are fully incorporated into urban planning, which forms a two-way constraint mechanism to ascertain environmental quality of urban planning, although in practice, planning and SEA processes may conditionally be unified. Moreover, as shown in the case study, the integration of the three political tools may be constrained due to slow changes in the contextual factors, in particular the political and cultural dimensions. Currently within the context of China, there may be three major elements which facilitate integration of the three political tools, which are (1) regulatory requirement of PEIA on urban planning, (2) the promotion or strong administrative support from government on eco-district building, and (3) the willingness of urban planners to collaborate with SEA experts or ecologists.     

数据资源规划在宏观环境督察业务领域应用研究

信息流的畅通和数据资源的有效利用是信息化可持续发展的基础。本文介绍了基于顶层设计的数据资源规划方法,提出数据资源规划的工作步骤。结合宏观环境督察业务现状和业务发展需要,归纳、分析、聚类、抽象出宏观环境督察业务职能域和全域数据元素集,形成了宏观环境督察数据资源的整体规划,为建立宏观督察业务的业务模型和数据模型提供了基础。     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.     

Inspiring Futures for European Local Governments!

Since 1994, more than 2000 European local governments have adopted the principles of the Aalborg Charter as a basis for local sustainability action. Now, ten years later in June 2004, these local governments will gather once again in Aalborg, Denmark at the Fourth European Conference on Sustainable Cities and Towns in Europe, Inspiring Futures—Aalborg+10. The Aalborg+10 event will celebrate a decade of European local sustainability action, evaluate progress and stagnation, and, more importantly, will adopt new commitments to move from Agenda to Action. The conference will be crucial for accelerating local sustainability in Europe and to move towards Local Action. Here an overview is provided on the context against which this important conference is set and its expected outcomes.