复杂地形对含硫气井应急计划区划分的影响

研究复杂地形对含硫气井应急计划区(EPZ)划分的影响,为高风险油气田的安全生产提供参考。根据含硫气井井口与周边地形的关系,将复杂地形分为3类;选择不同类型复杂地形的3口含硫气井,采用大涡模拟方法模拟不同H2S释放速率、不同风速和风向、不同井喷点火时间的组合条件下H2S大气扩散质量浓度场,积分计算各井H2S毒性负荷的时空分布。在此基础上,研究EPZ半径与H2S释放速率之间的关系,然后建立以H2S释放速率为指标的不同类型复杂地形含硫气井EPZ的划分方法。结果表明第一类模型计算结果明显大于第二类和第三类模型,第三类模型的计算结果最小,此差异随着H2S释放速率增大而愈显著。计算结果合理,方法适用且可行。     

应急避难场所建设进度优化模型研究

以规划效率评价为基础,定义了应急避难场所的公益收益,体现在服务性、可达性和安全性3个方面。以全部应急避难场所在整个建设规划期的总公益收益最大化为目标,建立了无偏好和有偏好两类建设进度优化模型,对应急避难场所在规划期内各年的投资额度、建设对象和建设数量进行优化。案例研究结果表明,无偏好模型能最大限度地获得公益收益,但不能很好地表达公众的真实需求;有偏好模型,不可避免会造成一定公益收益损失,但能更多地考虑实际存在的各方面影响因素,更接近真实的决策。实际应用中对模型的选择应根据具体情况确定。     

国土空间规划中的承载力反思：概念、理论与实践

资源环境承载力是国土空间规划的科学基础和约束条件。通过梳理承载力概念、理论和实践应用的发展,指出其在研究应用中存在概念边界模糊、评价偏向于指标计算、承载力传导机制研究不足等问题。国土空间规划体系改革,以及新时代生产生活和发展方式变革对国土空间规划提出了新的要求。支撑空间规划编制的承载力评价应进一步明确承载力的概念内涵、明晰承载力内在机制、构建承载力评价体系;在实践应用中应当根据国土空间规划和空间治理的新变化新需求,支撑空间规划的新目标、切合空间治理的新模式、顺应空间治理的新手段,为确定国土空间开发利用与保护修复的主要指标、战略部署,以及指标约束传递与地域功能传导等提供科学依据。     

Reliability of a Higher-Taxon Approach to Richness, Rarity, and Composition Assessments at the Local Scale

Abstract:  A promising shortcut for quantifying species patterns is to use genera and families as surrogates of species. At large spatial scales, concurrence between patterns of richness, rarity, and composition of species and higher taxa is generally high. Only a few researchers, however, have examined this relationship at the local scale, which is frequently the relevant scale in land-use conflicts. We investigated the reliability of the higher-taxon approach in assessing patterns of species richness, rarity, and composition at the local scale. We studied diversity patterns of three commonly used surrogate taxa: vascular plants, ground-dwelling beetles, and moths. We conducted year-round field surveys for these taxa in the Jerusalem Mountains and the Judean foothills, Israel. Richness and composition of species were highly correlated with richness and composition of genera for all taxa. At the family level, correlations with richness and composition of species were much lower. Excluding monotypic genera and families did not affect these relations. Rarity representation based on higher taxa varied considerably depending on the taxon, and rarity scale and was weaker compared with richness and composition representation. Cumulative richness curves of species and genera showed similar patterns, leveling off at equivalent sampling efforts. Genus-level assessments were a reliable surrogate for local patterns of species richness, rarity, and composition, but family-level assessments performed poorly. The advantage of using coarse taxonomic scales in local diversity surveys is that it may decrease identification time and the need for experts, but it will not reduce sampling effort.     

Managing the Commons Texas Style: Wildlife Management and Ground‐Water Associations on Private Lands1

Abstract: As nearly all of Texas’ rural lands are privately owned, landowner associations for the management of white‐tailed deer and ground‐water have become increasingly popular. Deer are a common‐pool resource with transboundary characteristics, requiring landowner cooperation for effective management. Ground‐water reserves are economically important to landowners, but are governed by the “rule of capture” whereby property rights are not defined. One ground‐water association and four wildlife management associations (WMAs) were surveyed to characterize their member demographics, land use priorities, attitudes, and social capital. Members of the ground‐water cooperative were part of a much larger, more heterogeneous, and more recently formed group than members of WMAs. They also placed greater importance on utilitarian aspects of their properties, as opposed to land stewardship for conservation as practiced by members of WMAs. If ground‐water association members could be more locally organized with more frequent meetings, social capital and information sharing may be enhanced and lead to land stewardship practices for improved hydrologic functions and sustained ground‐water supply. This, coupled with pumping rules assigned by the local ground‐water district, could yield an effective strategy that is ecologically and hydrologicaly sound, and that allows rural provision of water supply to urban consumers.     

城市物流系统安全规划的战略思考

从系统安全角度来理解城市物流系统安全规划的深刻含义,分析了城市物流系统安全规划与区域规划、城市总体规划、土地利用规划间的关系,提出了安全规划制定和实施的原则,研究了城市物流系统安全规划编制内容及程序,为有关机构对城市物流系统进行安全规划、安全决策及安全管理提供科学依据.     

化学工业园区消防规划探讨

针对化学工业园区的迅速发展,大型化工生产装置、储存装置日益增多,重大危险源数量不断增加,火灾、爆炸等重特大事故发生的可能性增大的现状,本文在化学工业园区安全规划工作实践的基础上,提出了化学工业园区消防规划的指导思想、原则和程序,确定了化学工业园区消防安全规划的一般内容,以期为化学工业园区消防安全规划的编制提供指导。     

城镇建设用地需求预测与配置研究

针对我国现行城镇建设用地预测方法存在的问题，对城镇建设用地预测方法进行了探索性研究；通过构建科学的建设用地需求预测方法，为土地利用规划提供科学依据。在C—D生产函数的基础上，提出了土地、资本与产出GDP的要素关系模型、恩格尔系数与人均建设用地面积关系模型和时间序列的ARIMA建设用地模型。对成都市城镇建设用地总量进行了实证分析，对4种预测方法的结果进行了定量评价，并据此提出成都市建设用地的配置方案。     

省级区域耕地保有量测算研究——以江苏省为例

预测了江苏省耕地供给变化趋势和耕地需求量。根据预测结果，对耕地供需平衡情况进行了判断，分析了不同的耕地集约利用水平、耕地种植结构对耕地供需平衡的影响耕地的供需状况。以此为依据，确定了区域粮食供应的优选策略。在此基础上，从区间估计的角度，探讨了耕地保有量的确定思路与方法，确定了江苏省规划期内不同时间阶段的耕地保有量区间，即到2010年耕地保有量应维持439．7-473．0万hm^2，2020年耕地保有量应维持420．8-458．4万hm^2。     

旅游规划中的目的地竞合分析——以芜湖市为例

经过多年旅游开发实践的驱动，我国旅游规划工作有了长足发展，但目前仍存在旅游规划模式化，忽视规划区的“地方性”，缺乏规划区的区际与区内旅游空间竞争与合作关系研究等，使规划区功能、产品、市场等定位不准，策划的项目与周边区域雷同等问题突出。在旅游规划中加强目的地竞合分析是寻求目的地特色、准确定位、优化线路、创新产品体系等的前提和重要、有效的技术手段。阐述了旅游目的地竞合分析的内容和方法，并以芜湖市为例，对芜湖市的区内和区际旅游空间竞合进行分析，提出了芜湖市旅游功能定位、战略目标与空间布局。