Effects of prenatal yolk androgens on armaments and ornaments of the ring-necked pheasant

Mothers may profoundly affect offspring phenotype and performance by adjusting egg components, including steroid hormones. We studied the effects of elevated prenatal testosterone (T) exposure in the ring-necked pheasant on the expression of a suite of male and female traits, including perinatal response to stress, immune response, growth, and secondary sexual traits. Prenatal T levels were increased by injecting the yolk of unincubated eggs with physiological doses of the hormone. Yolk T injection resulted in a reduced length of male tarsal spurs, a trait which positively predicts male success in intra- and intersexual selection and viability, whereas no direct effect on male wattle characteristics or plumage traits of either sex was observed. Female spur length was also negatively affected by T, but to a lesser extent than in males. In addition, the covariation between male secondary sexual traits, which are reliable quality indicators, differed between T and control males, suggesting that the manipulation may have altered the assessment of overall male quality by other males and females. In conclusion, the negative effects of elevated yolk T on spur length, a trait which positively predicts male fitness, coupled with the lack of effects on growth or other traits in both sexes, provided limited evidence for mothers being subjected to a trade-off between positive and negative consequences of yolk T deposition on offspring traits and suggest that directional selection for reduced yolk T levels may occur in the ring-necked pheasant.     

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Process of Agricultural Sustainable Development

Abstract

To promote modern agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modern agriculture in China. This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level, and chooses rural labor, per capita income of rural residents, rural investment, proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables, and total power of machine as induced variable. The major results show that the relativity of modern agricultural equipment level, rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable, and they are the major influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level. Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and development and promotion of advanced and applicable modern agricultural equipment, improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China’s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development.     

丹江口库区可持续发展能力分析

从区域可持续发展的角度出发,以湖北省丹江口库区为例,首先定性分析库区可持续发展的优势与问题,认为库区移民安置工作困难,库区可持续发展受到限制;经济增长缓慢,基础设施建设滞后;城镇化水平较低,库区社会矛盾突出;自然资源丰富与开发不足并存,库区淹没加剧土地资源稀缺;环境质量较好,生态基础脆弱。然后采用多因素综合评价模型定量分析了1999～2005年库区可持续发展的变化趋势。结果表明：库区可持续发展能力从1999年到2003年呈现明显的上升趋势,却从2004年开始缓慢下降;而人口、经济、社会、资源和环境各子系统也呈现出不同的特征。最后针对定性和定量评价结果提出相应的对策建议：做好库区移民安置,实现移民稳定就业;减少和消除移民贫困,增加基础设施建设;加快小城镇建设步伐,解决库区社会矛盾;发挥水资源优势,改善库区生态环境。     

长沙市两种空气质量预报方法检验对比

为探索新的空气质量预报方法，提高预报准确率，采用统计和对比方法，分析了长沙市空气质量现状，介绍了天气形势相似及动态逐步回归两种空气质量统计预报方法，并对其一年多的运行结果进行了检验和对比。结果表明，长沙市空气污染主要由PM\-\{10\}和SO\-2浓度超标引起, 且具有明显的空间分布特征;5年来长沙城市空气质量明显好转;两种预报方法对各污染物都有一定的预报能力，预报的误差绝对值多集中在30以内，而级别误差基本上在1级以内。两种方法对NO\-2的预报准确率均在98%左右,预报效果优良。绝对误差对比发现，两种预报方法对SO\-2的预报明显优于PM\-\{10\}预报；级别准确率对比时，两种预报方法对3种污染物的预报准确率相近。两种预报方法对3个污染因子的预报准确率呈现出NO\-2优于SO\-2优于PM\-\{10\}的趋势。     

基于MODIS数据的洞庭湖水体面积与多站点水位相关关系研究

针对洞庭湖区,以30 m分辨率的环境减灾卫星CCD影像为参考,对比分析了归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）和比值植被指数（RVI）应用于MODIS遥感影像水体面积提取的优缺点。研究发现,选取NDVI并且赋予各月份各自适应的阈值进行水体面积提取,有效避免了采取单一阈值造成的枯水期水体误提以及丰水期水体漏提问题。将提取湖区面积与相应日期水位数据组成水位 面积组,建立湖区面积 水位相关关系。考虑到建立湖区面积与单一水文站点水位间相关关系存在一定空间不合理性,选取逐步多元回归法建立2003~2006年湖区面积与多站点水位间相关关系。结果表明：在高水位和低水位处,洞庭湖面积 水位关系年际间变化不太明显,但在中等水位处（如24~29 m）,湖区面积 水位关系有比较明显的变化,同一水位处湖区面积有逐年减小的趋势。     

耕地利用集约度变化及其驱动因素分析——以湖北省为例

耕地利用集约度的变化关系到粮食安全和社会经济的可持续发展。运用逐步回归和通径分析等多元统计分析方法,对湖北省1990年至2008年的耕地利用集约度变化的驱动机制进行研究。研究表明,耕地利用集约度总体上稳中有升;农产品价格、耕地质量和财政支农是影响耕地利用集约度的主要因素;农产品价格、耕地质量和财政支农政策既是影响耕地利用集约度的直接原因,又是其他因素对耕地利用集约度影响的间接原因;在市场经济条件下,农民的耕地利用行为表现出市场化的趋势。因此,应稳定并逐步提高农产品价格,保障土地整理实施的质量,改善耕地质量,并加大政策对农业的扶持力度,从而提高农民农业生产积极性和耕地利用集约度、提升农民收入和保障国家粮食安全     

Pxrf土壤重金属检测的影响因素、模式与校正方法

针对便携式X射线荧光光谱（Pxrf）法测定土壤重金属检测精度不足的问题,提出一种以Pxrf测定值及场地参数的特性关系为基础的通用建模方法和流程,用以构建适用于各场地特性的Pxrf校正模型,以提高Pxrf的测量准确度.以北京某典型矿区污染场地为例开展研究,选取土壤中Pb、Sr、Cu、Fe、Mn、Zn 6种重金属,通过潜在相关因子（土壤有机质含量、含水率、实际污染物含量）及其不同数学变换形式（指数、对数、幂函数的数学变换）与Pxrf测定值的相关分析,识别显著影响Pxrf测定值的影响变量、影响程度及影响形式;基于影响因子识别结果,建立其与Pxrf的数学模型表达式,实现Pxrf测定值校正,准确值提高的目的.结果表明：Pb、Cu、Zn 3种重金属的Pxrf测量值与实际浓度呈现显著相关,相关系数值为0.75~0.82;重金属Sr、Fe、Mn相关系数值为0.25~0.52,其相关性稍差.含水率对Pxrf检测影响程度从小到大排列依次为Sr、Mn、Cu、Pb、Zn,相关系数值范围为0.1~0.7.所有重金属的Pxrf测量值受土壤有机质含量影响弱,相关系数均低于0.5.经模式变换后,重金属Zn、Pb、Cu的Pxrf测量值与实际浓度相关性呈增大趋势（增大了4%~13%）;其他重金属无显著变化.模型校验结果显示,Pb、Zn、Cu、Mn四种重金属的模型可用来提高该场地Pxrf法检测精度.相较于原始Pxrf测量值,可用模型中经校正后的Pxrf值的相对误差从32.4%~56.6%降至4%~29.9%.     

酸雨pH预测的偏最小二乘回归模型

酸雨pH值受酸性离子[SO4^2-]、[NO3^-]和碱性离子[Ca^2 ]、[NH4^ ]等的影响。这些影响因素之间存在多重相关性。用一般最小二乘回归法建模预测pH值，估计参数存在着很大的误差且物理意义明显不足。应用偏最小二乘回归技术建立pH值预测模型，克服了自变量之间的多重相关性的问题，因而更具有先进性，计算结果更为可靠。以我国17个城市pH值预测为例，探讨偏最小二乘法的优势，并与最小二乘回归法进行了比较。     

Using Ecological Risk Assessment to Identify the Major Anthropogenic Stressor in the Waquoit Bay Watershed,Cape Cod,Massachusetts

The Waquoit Bay Watershed ecological risk assessment was performed by an interdisciplinary and interagency workgroup. This paper focuses on the steps taken to formulate the analysis plan for this watershed assessment. The workgroup initially conducted a series of meetings with the general public and local and state managers to determine environmental management objectives for the watershed. The workgroup then decided that more information was needed on the impacts of six stressors: nutrient enrichment, physical alteration of habitat, altered freshwater flow, toxic chemicals, pathogens, and fisheries harvesting. Assessment endpoints were selected to establish the link between environmental management objectives, impacts of stressors, and scientifically measurable endpoints. The following assessment endpoints were selected: estuarine eelgrass cover, scallop abundance, finfish diversity and abundance, wetland bird distribution and abundance, piping plover distribution and abundance, tissue contaminant levels, and brook trout distribution and abundance in streams. A conceptual model was developed to show the pathways between human activities, stressors, and ecological effects. The workgroup analyzed comparative risks, by first ranking stressors in terms of their potential risk to biotic resources in the watershed. Then stressors were evaluated by considering the components of stressors (e.g., the stressor chemical pollution included both heavy metals and chlorinated solvents components) in terms of intensity and extensiveness. The workgroup identified nutrient enrichment as the major stressor. Nutrient enrichment comprised both phosphorus enrichment in freshwater ponds and nitrogen enrichment within estuaries. Because phosphorus impacts were being analyzed and mitigated by the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence, this assessment focused on nitrogen. The process followed to identify the predominant stressor and focus the analyses on nitrogen impacts on eelgrass and scallops will serve as an example of how to increase the use of the findings of a watershed assessment in decision making.     

Adaptation as a Political Process: Adjusting to Drought and Conflict in Kenya’s Drylands

In this article, we argue that people’s adjustments to multiple shocks and changes, such as conflict and drought, are intrinsically political processes that have uneven outcomes. Strengthening local adaptive capacity is a critical component of adapting to climate change. Based on fieldwork in two areas in Kenya, we investigate how people seek to access livelihood adjustment options and promote particular adaptation interests through forming social relations and political alliances to influence collective decision-making. First, we find that, in the face of drought and conflict, relations are formed among individuals, politicians, customary institutions, and government administration aimed at retaining or strengthening power bases in addition to securing material means of survival. Second, national economic and political structures and processes affect local adaptive capacity in fundamental ways, such as through the unequal allocation of resources across regions, development policy biased against pastoralism, and competition for elected political positions. Third, conflict is part and parcel of the adaptation process, not just an external factor inhibiting local adaptation strategies. Fourth, there are relative winners and losers of adaptation, but whether or not local adjustments to drought and conflict compound existing inequalities depends on power relations at multiple geographic scales that shape how conflicting interests are negotiated locally. Climate change adaptation policies are unlikely to be successful or minimize inequity unless the political dimensions of local adaptation are considered; however, existing power structures and conflicts of interests represent political obstacles to developing such policies.