Influencing factors and prediction of ambient Peroxyacetyl nitrate concentration in Beijing, China

Peroxyacyl nitrates (PANs) are important secondary pollutants in ground-level atmosphere. Accurate prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentrations is crucial to guide effective precautions for before and during specific pollution events. In this study, four models based on the back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods were used to predict the hourly average PAN concentrations at Peking University, Beijing, in 2014. The model inputs were atmospheric pollutant data and meteorological parameters. Model 3 using a BP-ANN based on the original variables achieved the best prediction results among the four models, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.7089, mean bias error of ? 0.0043 ppb, mean absolute error of 0.4836?ppb, root mean squared error of 0.5320?ppb, and Willmott's index of agreement of 0.8214. Based on a comparison of the performance indices of the MLR and BP-ANN models, we concluded that the BP-ANN model was able to capture the highly non-linear relationships between PAN concentration and the conventional atmospheric pollutant and meteorological parameters, providing more accurate results than the traditional MLR models did, with a markedly higher goodness of R. The selected meteorological and atmospheric pollutant parameters described a sufficient amount of PAN variation, and thus provided satisfactory prediction results. More specifically, the BP-ANN model performed very well for capturing the variation pattern when PAN concentrations were low. The findings of this study address some of the existing knowledge gaps in this research field and provide a theoretical basis for future regional air pollution control.     

N级台阶轴锻件形状优化算法

建立了台阶轴“0—1”编码法,解决了N级台阶轴数学描述和其总数计算问题。应用基于基来台阶单元的优化模型和算法,有效地解决了N级台阶轴锻件形状优化问题。     

城市环境质量多层次模糊综合评价法

通过对城市环境质量的指标的综合分析，确定了多层次模糊综合评价方法。该方法通过模糊合成运算将复杂多层次评价问题转化为定量评价，从而更合理有效地分析城市的环境质量状况。     

Time constraints and multiple choice criteria in the sampling behaviour and mate choice of the fiddler crab,Uca annulipes

Active female sampling occurs in the fiddler crab Uca annulipes. Females sample the burrows of several males before remaining to mate in the burrow of the chosen partner. Females time larval release to coincide with the following nocturnal spring tide and must therefore leave sufficient time for embryonic development after mating. Here we show how this temporal constraint on search time affects female choosiness. We found that, at the start of the sampling period (when time constraints are minimal), females selectively sample the larger males in the population. Towards the end of the sampling period (when the temporal constraints increase the costs of sampling), females are less selective. Furthermore, we suggest that the number of males sampled (and other indices of ‘‘sampling effort’’) may not be reliable indicators of female choosiness and may not reflect the strength of female mating preferences under certain conditions. Burrow quality also emerged as an important criterion in final mate choice. Burrow structure potentially influences reproductive success, and mate acceptance based on burrow structure appears to involve a relatively invariant threshold criterion. Since there is no relationship between male size and burrow quality, females are using at least two independent criteria when choosing potential mates. We envisage mate choice as a two-stage process. First, females select which males to sample based on male size. They then decide whether or not to mate with a male based on burrow features. This sampling process explains how two unrelated variables can both predict male mating success. Received: 23 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 14 January 1996     

Effects of prenatal yolk androgens on armaments and ornaments of the ring-necked pheasant

Mothers may profoundly affect offspring phenotype and performance by adjusting egg components, including steroid hormones. We studied the effects of elevated prenatal testosterone (T) exposure in the ring-necked pheasant on the expression of a suite of male and female traits, including perinatal response to stress, immune response, growth, and secondary sexual traits. Prenatal T levels were increased by injecting the yolk of unincubated eggs with physiological doses of the hormone. Yolk T injection resulted in a reduced length of male tarsal spurs, a trait which positively predicts male success in intra- and intersexual selection and viability, whereas no direct effect on male wattle characteristics or plumage traits of either sex was observed. Female spur length was also negatively affected by T, but to a lesser extent than in males. In addition, the covariation between male secondary sexual traits, which are reliable quality indicators, differed between T and control males, suggesting that the manipulation may have altered the assessment of overall male quality by other males and females. In conclusion, the negative effects of elevated yolk T on spur length, a trait which positively predicts male fitness, coupled with the lack of effects on growth or other traits in both sexes, provided limited evidence for mothers being subjected to a trade-off between positive and negative consequences of yolk T deposition on offspring traits and suggest that directional selection for reduced yolk T levels may occur in the ring-necked pheasant.     

Pxrf土壤重金属检测的影响因素、模式与校正方法

针对便携式X射线荧光光谱（Pxrf）法测定土壤重金属检测精度不足的问题,提出一种以Pxrf测定值及场地参数的特性关系为基础的通用建模方法和流程,用以构建适用于各场地特性的Pxrf校正模型,以提高Pxrf的测量准确度.以北京某典型矿区污染场地为例开展研究,选取土壤中Pb、Sr、Cu、Fe、Mn、Zn 6种重金属,通过潜在相关因子（土壤有机质含量、含水率、实际污染物含量）及其不同数学变换形式（指数、对数、幂函数的数学变换）与Pxrf测定值的相关分析,识别显著影响Pxrf测定值的影响变量、影响程度及影响形式;基于影响因子识别结果,建立其与Pxrf的数学模型表达式,实现Pxrf测定值校正,准确值提高的目的.结果表明：Pb、Cu、Zn 3种重金属的Pxrf测量值与实际浓度呈现显著相关,相关系数值为0.75~0.82;重金属Sr、Fe、Mn相关系数值为0.25~0.52,其相关性稍差.含水率对Pxrf检测影响程度从小到大排列依次为Sr、Mn、Cu、Pb、Zn,相关系数值范围为0.1~0.7.所有重金属的Pxrf测量值受土壤有机质含量影响弱,相关系数均低于0.5.经模式变换后,重金属Zn、Pb、Cu的Pxrf测量值与实际浓度相关性呈增大趋势（增大了4%~13%）;其他重金属无显著变化.模型校验结果显示,Pb、Zn、Cu、Mn四种重金属的模型可用来提高该场地Pxrf法检测精度.相较于原始Pxrf测量值,可用模型中经校正后的Pxrf值的相对误差从32.4%~56.6%降至4%~29.9%.     

Pb和Cd赋存形态与土壤理化性质相关性研究

选择我国14种具有代表性的重金属污染土壤,测定其主要理化性质（pH、阳离子交换量、有机质、粉粒和黏粒）,采用改进的BCR顺序提取法对其中的Pb和Cd进行形态分析,运用SPSS 20.0软件进行Pearson相关性分析,建立逐步回归模型,研究重金属赋存形态与理化性质的相关性。结果表明,Pb和Cd的酸可溶态与pH值呈极显著负相关,相关性系数r分别为-0.80和-0.78,与阳离子交换量呈显著正相关,r分别为0.54和0.61,与有机质、粉粒和黏粒无相关性;Cd的可还原态与有机质呈显著正相关,r=0.56,与其它理化性质无相关性;可氧化态与有机质和黏粒呈显著正相关,与其它理化性质无相关性;残渣态与主要理化性质均无显著相关性。由逐步回归模型发现,酸可溶态、可还原态、可氧化态与理化性质回归效果均较好。     

我国大气降水中δ18O变化的多气象因子分析及分区研究

分析了我国29个GNIP站1961—2015年逐月降水中δ~(18)O与局地气象要素(近地面的气温、降水量和大气可降水量、外向长波辐射以及500 hPa高度的风速)和大尺度环流因子(Nino 4区海表温度距平及南方涛动指数)的关系,并基于层次聚类分析和逐步回归分析方法,讨论了我国降水中δ~(18)O的分区,计算了区内降水中δ~(18)O依各气象因子的回归方程.结果表明,秦岭-淮河一线南北两侧站点降水中δ~(18)O与气象因子之间的关系差异显著,是我国的一条重要的降水稳定同位素环境效应分界线.我国降水中δ~(18)O可以分为3个区域,即北部区(包括西北和东北地区)、中部过渡区(含华北及青藏地区)和南部区,其中北部区和中部过渡区的分界线大致与我国西北地区和北方地区的分界线吻合,中部过渡区与南部区大体与我国北方地区和南方地区的分界线相一致.不同地区控制降水中δ~(18)O的气象因子存在差异:北部区为温度,中部过渡区为温度、500 hPa高度风速以及外向长波辐射,南部区是500 hPa高度的风速.研究结果对于认识我国大气降水中稳定同位素空间分布的特征及其内在机制具有重要意义.     

Aerobic N2O emission for activated sludge acclimated under different aeration rates in the multiple anoxic and aerobic process

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent greenhouse gas that can be emitted during biological nitrogen removal. N₂O emission was examined in a multiple anoxic and aerobic process at the aeration rates of 600 mL/min sequencing batch reactor (SBR_L) and 1200 mL/min (SBR_H). The nitrogen removal percentage was 89% in SBR_L and 71% in SBR_H, respectively. N₂O emission mainly occurred during the aerobic phase, and the N₂O emission factor was 10.1% in SBR_L and 2.3% in SBR_H, respectively. In all batch experiments, the N₂O emission potential was high in SBR_L compared with SBR_H. In SBR_L, with increasing aeration rates, the N₂O emission factor decreased during nitrification, while it increased during denitrification and simultaneous nitrification and denitrification (SND). By contrast, in SBR_H the N₂O emission factor during nitrification, denitrification and SND was relatively low and changed little with increasing aeration rates. The microbial competition affected the N₂O emission during biological nitrogen removal.     

陕北地区煤炭开采等人类活动对河道径流影响的定量识别

陕北地区水资源严重短缺,定量分析窟野河流域各因素对河道径流的影响程度,对干旱半干旱地区的资源开发具有重要意义.该文首先分析了窟野河径流以及流域内降雨、气温、水保措施、用水量和煤炭开采量等因素的变化趋势;其次按照1961—1979年、1980—1998年、1999—2010年以及1961—2010年等4个时期,采用逐步回归法分别确定其显著的影响因素,求出各时期的径流相关方程,其中1961—2010年间的主要影响因素为降雨量、气温、水保措施和煤炭开采量;最后定量计算了1980—1998年和1999—2010年相对于基准期1961—1979年各因素造成的减水量,其中水保措施的减水量由65%减少到了47%,煤炭开采却增加到了19%.结果表明,采用逐步回归分析法计算的窟野河1961—2010年径流模拟值与实测值很接近,该方法可以在中国北方干旱半干旱地区推广.