Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Male lagoon gobies, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Knipowitschia panizzae</Emphasis>, prefer more ornamented to larger females

Female ornamentation may be directly sexually selected, by male choice or female competition, or occurs as the result of a genetic correlation, arising from sexual selection on males. However, increasing evidence supports the former hypothesis, suggesting that males actively choose their partner preferring traits indicative of female quality. In the lagoon goby, Knipowitschia panizzae, a polygynous species whose males perform parental care to eggs, body length and the size of a sex-specific yellow patch on the belly are known to be reliable indicators of female fecundity. In this paper, we tested, using dummies, the male’s mating preferences for female body and yellow belly patch sizes. The two experimental trials in which a single female trait was variable showed that males prefer a larger belly patch and a larger body size, indicating that both these characters are selected by male mate choice. However, when faced with dummies exhibiting an inverse combination of body and belly patch sizes (experiment 3), males significantly preferred the smaller ones with larger yellow belly patches. A calculation of dummy theoretical fecundity reveals that in the first two experiments, males would have received an immediate benefit from their choice in terms of egg number, whereas in the third one, males chose partners that would have provided them with fewer eggs. The male lagoon goby preference for females with larger belly patches, regardless of their size, suggests that this trait, in addition to indicating fecundity, conveys information about other aspects of female and/or egg quality.     

南昌市浅层地下水水质评价及监测指标优化

地下水环境监测过程中保证地下水水质评价代表性的同时尽量优化监测指标数量,对地下水环境管理具有重要的意义.选取南昌市地区2014年和2019年浅层地下水监测数据,运用统计分析、 Piper三线图和熵权水质指数(EWQI)分析水化学特征及水质变化,并耦合逐步多元线性回归分析构建基于水质评价的关键指标优化方法,评估此方法应用的可行性.结果表明,南昌市地下水2014年和2019年水化学类型主要为HCO₃-Ca型;pH值、 NO^-₃、 I^-、 Fe和Mn等5项超标指标是水质变化的主要影响因子;2019年水质状况总体上高于2014年,基本为“中等”水质,二者EWQI平均值分别为53.72和82.34;基于关键指标优化方法构建的最优模型EWQI_min-4能够较好地代表实际的EWQI,关键指标包括Mn、 NO^-₃、 TH、 Fe、 pH值和I^-,其决定系数(R²)和百分比误差(PE)值分别为0.865和10...     

基于累积Logistic模型的交通事故严重程度时空分析

交通事故的发生具有随机性和偶然性,为尽可能地降低交通事故的伤害程度,根据某高速公路典型事故多发段的交通事故统计资料,以交通事故严重程度为因变量,从时间、道路空间结构和交通运行环境等因素中初步选择12个候选自变量,采用混合逐步选择法分析候选自变量与因变量是否显著相关。采用累积Logistic模型建立交通事故严重程度时空分析模型,并从成比例检验、拟合优度检验和预测准确度检验3个方面对模型进行检验。研究结果表明:事故发生时段、季节因素、发生地点、道路线形、坡度、事故涉及车辆数和日标准交通量与年平均日交通量之比与交通事故严重程度显著相关。     

Multiple paternity and individual variation in sperm precedence in the simultaneously hermaphroditic land snail Arianta arbustorum

Intraspecific variation in the proportion of offspring sired by the second mate with a female (P₂) is an aspect of sperm competition that has received little attention. I examined the effects of delay between copulations (range 9–380 days) and size of sperm donor on sperm precedence in double-mated individuals of the simultaneously hermaphroditic land snail Arianta arbustorum. Using shell colour as a genetic marker, paternity was analysed in 132 broods produced by 35 snails that had mated with two partners of different genotype. Sperm precedence (P₂) was influenced by the time between the two matings when the mating delay exceeded 70 days (one reproductive season). P2 averaged 0.34 in the first brood of snails that mated twice within 70 days indicating first mate sperm precedence. In contrast, P₂ averaged 0.76 in broods of snails that remated in the following season, indicating a decreased viability of sperm from the first mate. The size of sperm-donating individuals had no effect on the fertilization success of their sperm in the first brood produced after the second copulation. Analysis of long-term sperm utilization in 23 snails that laid three to nine egg batches over 2 years revealed striking differences among individuals. Five snails (21.7%) exhibited first-mate sperm precedence throughout, eight snails (34.8%) showed second-mate sperm precedence throughout, whereas ten snails (43.5%) exhibited sperm mixing in successive batches. It is suggested that the individual variation in sperm precedence in A. arbustorum may partly be due to differences in the amount of sperm transferred. Paternity analysis in 34 batches laid by 19 wild-caught individuals of A. arbustorum indicated that at least 12 snails (63.2%) used sperm from two or more mates for the fertilization of their eggs. This suggests a high incidence of multiple paternity in broods of A. arbustorum under field conditions.     

Monitoring toxics by group testing

Monitoring the environment for a large list of organic compounds present at low levels is costly. The primary purpose of such monitoring is to assure that hazardous levels of such compounds are not released into, or present in, the environment. Viewing this as a quality control problem, we suggest that samples from different sources can be composited using group testing procedures prior to analysis. Our purpose is to describe the basic concepts and suggest problems requiring study.     

Spatial and temporal variation of below-ground N transfer from a leguminous tree to an associated grass in an agroforestry system

Nitrogen (N) transfer from leguminous trees can be a major N source for the associated crop in low-input agroforestry systems. The aim of this study was to identify the main climatic and soil factors controlling N transfer from the leguminous tree Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Walp to the associated grass Dichanthium aristatum (Poir.) C.E. Hubb, in a 16-year-old tropical agroforestry system. Nitrogen transfer was estimated using the natural ¹⁵N abundance method. Before tree pruning, total N transfer represented 57% of the N uptake of the grass, including 31% coming from N₂ fixation. The spatial variation induced by the tree was well described by soil organic N content (ON). In this system, ON is an index of soil available N as well as of tree root density. Rainfall (R) and evapotranspiration (ETP) were the main climatic factors controlling N transfer. Multiple regression analysis indicated that R, ETP and ON explained 79% of the temporal and spatial variation of N transfer. Transferred N cannot be estimated after pruning because of the change in the isotopic signature of the soil N source. This was related to N release from root turnover. The results suggest that grass showed a preferential uptake of N coming from the tree, which could be due to a lower energy cost compared to obtaining absorbed N from the clayey soil used in this work.     

Melanin- and carotenoid-dependent signals of great tits (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus major</Emphasis>) relate differently to metal pollution

Due to their high phenotypic plasticity, the expression of secondary sexual characteristics is particularly sensitive to stress. Here, we investigated the expression of two conspicuous visual signals in great tits (Parus major) in a metal pollution gradient. In three study sites with marked differences in metal contamination (mainly lead, cadmium, copper and zinc), we compared melanin and carotenoid colouration of great tits. While carotenoid colouration (yellow breast) was negatively related to metal pollution, the size of a melanin trait (breast stripe) was larger in the most polluted sites. Environmental pollutants not only affect the expression of conspicuous signals but may even enhance, directly or indirectly, a signal of male quality such as breast stripe. Our results also support the multiple messages hypothesis predicting that different signals highlight different aspects of geno- and phenotypic condition of the bearer.     

农户专业化对农业低碳化的影响研究————来自北京市蔬菜种植户的证据

农户专业化和农业低碳化是农业现代化和农业可持续发展的必然环节,研究农户专业化对农业低碳化的影响具有重要意义.论文运用专业化分工理论和低碳经济理论分析了农户专业化对农业低碳化的影响.然后,根据2013年北京市蔬菜种植户的实地调查数据,运用联立方程组模型的似不相关回归(SUR)方法对理论分析结果进行了实证检验.结果表明:农户专业化与农业碳排放在5%的显著性水平上负相关,而农户专业化与农业产出和农业碳生产率均在1%的显著性水平上正相关.理论分析结果得到了经验验证,说明农户专业化对农业低碳化具有显著的正向影响.     

Instream and offstream environmental conditions and stream biotic integrity: Importance of scale and site similarities for learning and prediction

Two different methods to predict biotic integrity were tested and compared in the present paper. The first one tries to predict the fish indices of biotic integrity (IBI) at the state or regional scale based on the most similar observations to a specific target site of interest using the simple to implement k-nearest neighbors (or kNN) method. Two different distance functions were considered to find the k-nearest neighbors: the Euclidean and the Mahalanobis. The second method was applied on the same datasets and consisted of a step-wise multiple regression. The two modeling approaches yielded similar results but kNN proved to be more time-efficient and very fast computationally for the given dataset sizes, which allowed applying a leave-one-out cross validation.In an attempt to reveal the importance of scale in the prediction of IBI, regression models were constructed at the state (or regional) scale and at the more refined cluster of sampling sites scale. Clusters of sites were extracted using Kohonen's self-organizing maps (SOM) followed by k-means clustering of the SOM neurons. Cluster-level regression models, constructed after site patterning, performed better in IBI prediction than global regression models constructed without any previous site patterning. The importance of identifying groups of sites with similar environmental characteristics affecting the IBI was revealed. The combined use of site patterning and regression modeling for IBI prediction also helped identifying important variables acting at the local scale which remain latent at the global scale.