基于HCNAM-BN的化工过程爆炸事故致因链分析

为了从源头上预防化工过程爆炸事故,依据风险耦合理论,探讨了各风险因子非线性耦合演化为爆炸事故的机理,构建了层次耦合网络分析模型（HCNAM）;从多因素风险耦合角度分析了国内外44起典型化工过程爆炸事故,统计了各风险因子之间的耦合概率并进行了耦合致因重要度分级;采用耦合概率与二态分布相结合的条件概率分布,将层次耦合网络分析模型转化为贝叶斯网络,并对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸性混合气体爆炸事故进行了应用研究。结果表明:91种双因子耦合风险状态中,47种呈现弱耦合致因特性;7种因子双耦合形成风险的概率较大;基于HCNAM-BN模型分析事故,可有效辨识事故最可能致因因素,获取各事故致因链的发生概率并确定事故网络关键节点。     

河湖水系连通的理论探讨

在全球气候变化和水资源形势日趋严峻的背景下,为了从根本上提高水资源统筹配置能力、改善河湖健康状况和增强抵御水旱灾害能力,河湖水系连通作为国家新时期的一个治水方略被提出。当前关于河湖水系连通的理论基础研究要落后于实践,尚在探索之中。论文尝试从河、湖与水系等水循环基本概念入手,探讨水系的结构、特征和连通性,揭示水系连通的水循环物理机制,并进一步分析河湖水系连通的战略思想,探明其中涉及的几个关键水循环基础问题,包括水量平衡、能量平衡、水资源可再生性、水循环尺度等问题,为河湖水系连通战略的实施和理论体系的建立奠定基础。     

Ecosystem network analysis indicators are generally robust to parameter uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Understanding how data uncertainty influences ecosystem analysis is critical as we move toward ecosystem-based management. Here, we investigate how 18 Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indicators that characterize ecosystem growth, development, and condition are affected by uncertainty in an ecosystem model of Lake Sidney Lanier (USA). We applied ENA to 122 plausible parameterizations of the ecosystem developed by Borrett and Osidele (2007, Ecological Modelling 200, 371-387), and then used the coefficient of variation (CV) to compare system indicator variability. We considered Total System Throughput (TST) as a measure of the underlying model uncertainty and tested three hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that non-ratio indicators whose calculation includes the TST would be at least as variable as TST if not more variable. Second, we postulated that indicators calculated as ratios, with TST in the numerator and denominator would tend to be less variable than TST because its influence will cancel. Last, we expected the Average Mutual Information (AMI) to be less variable than TST because it is a bounded function. Our work shows that the 18 indicators grouped into four categories. The first group has significantly larger CVs than the CV for TST. In this group, model uncertainty is amplified rendering these three indicators less useful. The second group of four indicators shows no significant difference in variability with respect to TST. Finally, there are two groups whose CV values are significantly lower than that for TST. The least variable group includes the ratio-based indicators and Average Mutual Information. Due to their low variability, we conclude that these indicators are the most robust to the parameter uncertainty and most useful for ecosystem assessment and comparative ecosystem analysis. In summary, this work suggests that we can be as certain, or more certain, in most of the selected ENA indicators as we are in the parameters of the model analyzed.     

Beyond identity crisis: The challenge of recontextualizing ecosystem delimitation

In a series of papers, three important system ecologists, Bernard C. Patten, Sven E. Jorgensen and Milan Straškraba attempt to revise the old ecosystem field and construct a new systems ecology. Inevitably, their attempt is faced with some of the same problems that led the field to decline. The indefiniteness of ecosystem boundaries is one of them, maybe the most important. Systems’ ecology failure to define ecosystem boundaries was considered a significant obstacle for the conceptualization of the ecosystem as a valid organizing unit of nature and resulted in a disciplinary identity crisis. To surmount this crisis, the authors introduce into the field innovative ideas which have their origin in the so-called postmodern network theories. These ideas reinforce the concept of environment and allow for a relative conception of space, which might have beneficial effects in delimiting ecosystems. However, the problem-solving potential of these ideas is not activated because the authors remain stitched to the Odumian mode of ecosystem thinking and avoid recontextualizing the old building blocks.     

Multiple structural modifications to dendritic ecological networks produce simple responses

Structural modifications to landscapes affect the ability of organisms to access different habitat patches. There exist, however, very few general methods by which to relate modifications to expectations of effects, and even fewer that enable understanding of how multiple modifications may interact. In the absence of any guiding principles, ecologists have assumed that interactions will result in complex landscape-scale effects. One way of understanding such effects is through rendering a landscape as a graph or network, among the simplest of which are dendritic networks typified by stream systems. Yet even for stream networks, there are no known general principles concerning the nature of interactions between multiple modifications. We developed a model to describe the ability of fish to access and use different habitat patches within dendritic networks. We used mathematical and numerical analyses of the model to investigate how the habitat value of a network is affected by changes in connectivity and habitat quality, and then to examine interactions between multiple modifications. Rather than showing complex interactions, our analytic and simulation-based results show that the combined effect of multiple modifications approximately equals the sum of individually predicted effects. Dendritic networks thus appear to respond far more simply to multiple modifications than has previously been assumed. These results have implications for stream management planning, and offer a firm foundation from which to better understand population processes within dendritic networks.     

Development of pretreatment protocol for DNA extraction from biofilm attached to biologic activated carbon (BAC) granules

The biologic activated carbon (BAC) process is widely used in drinking water treatments. A comprehensive molecular analysis of the microbial community structure provides very helpful data to improve the reactor performance. However, the bottleneck of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) extraction from BAC attached biofilm has to be solved since the conventional procedure was unsuccessful due to firm biomass attachment and adsorption capacity of the BAC granules. In this study, five pretreatments were compared, and adding skim milk followed by ultrasonic vibration was proven to be the optimal choice. This protocol was further tested using the vertical BAC samples from the full-scale biofilter of Pinghu Water Plant. The results showed the DNA yielded a range of 40 μg·g^-1 BAC (dry weight) to over 100 μg·g^-1 BAC (dry weight), which were consistent with the biomass distribution. All results suggested that the final protocol could produce qualified genomic DNA as a template from the BAC filter for downstream molecular biology researches.     

Estimation of Aerobic Capacity and Determination of Its Associated Factors Among Male Workers of Industrial Sector of Iran

Introduction. The aim of this study was to estimate maximal aerobic capacity (V_O2max), to determine its associated factors among workers of industrial sector of Iran and to develop a regression equation for subjects’ V_O2max. Methods. In this study, 500 healthy male workers employed in Shiraz industries participated voluntarily. The subjects’ V_O2max was assessed with the ergocycle test according to the Åstrand protocol. Required data was collected with a questionnaire covering demographic details (i.e., age, job tenure, marital status, education, nature of work, shift work, smoking and weekly exercises). Results. The subject’s mean V_O2max was 2.69 ± 0.263 L/min. The results showed that there was an association between V_O2max and age, BMI, hours of exercise and smoking, but there was no association between V_O2max and height, weight, nature of work and working schedule. On the basis of the results, regression equations were developed to estimate V_O2max. Conclusion. Final regression equation developed in this study may be used to estimate V_O2max reliably without the need to use other laboratory instruments for aerobic measurement.     

学习率有限监督调整BP网络在水质评价中的应用

以地表水环境质量标准基本项目标准限值为依据,随机生成标准样本和检测样本,采用学习率有限监督调整BP网络建立水质评价模型。完成网络训练的模型对检测样本进行检验评价,检验结果表明,该人工神经网络水质评价模型具有较高的精度,同时,可以避免人为主观因素对水质评价的影响,保证了水质鉴定的科学性和公正性。     

Control system approaches to ecological systems analysis: Invariants and frequency response

The steady-state assumption is a mainstay for the analysis of ecological systems with more than three or four states. However, it is well accepted in ecology that inputs to large systems come in pulses assumed to have a reasonably constant magnitude and frequency. Steady pulse inputs and the use of electro-chemical–mechanical control systems methodology enables limited short term dynamic responses of ecological systems of a scale often occurring in systems of potential engineering importance to be analyzed. This paper explores and presents a survey of multi-input–multi-output (MIMO) control systems analysis of ecosystem network models to better understand pulse frequency issues and further develop experimentally verifiable approaches to testing the MIMO concept. The analysis process is demonstrated using two network model exemplars. Two aspects of MIMO analyses appear relevant to understanding ecological systems: (1) Eigenvalue invariant analyses and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses enable assessment of stability and relative strength of states. Eigenvalues reflect time constants and provide a check on experimentally determined system matrices. (2) Analysis of SVD versus frequency for each output indicates maximum pulse frequencies that allow system components to benefit from pulsing. As a group, MIMO analyses complement other analytical methods and provide a theoretical systems focus convenient for analyzing ecosystems from an engineering perspective.     

Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.