The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

南京江北核心区气候环境宜居性评价

气候环境条件是影响宜居的一个重要因素。运用多层次评价模型,从气象灾害、大气环境、人体健康及生态气象等4个层面筛选出20项指标,构建区域气候环境宜居性的评价体系,基于层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的权重,并以南京江北核心区为例,对其宜居水平进行评价。结果表明:在青奥生态建设期间(2011—2014年),研究区的宜居水平整体呈上升趋势,属于宜居范畴,接近非常宜居的标准。这反映青奥会期间的环境整治与灾害防治工作初见成效,对江北核心区的宜居性起正效应作用。     

建筑材料隐含环境影响评估

我国建筑业快速发展,建筑开发使用大量的建筑材料给资源和环境带来严重负荷.以上海市为案例,运用生命周期评价方法,基于北京工业大学和Ecoinvent数据库中的建筑材料生产数据,采用ReCiPe法对上海市建筑物的材料隐含环境影响进行评估,并对未来的环境影响潜值进行预测.结果表明:在上海市居住建筑和非居住建筑所产生的各类环境影响中人类毒性、金属损耗最为突出,约占总环境影响的45%和20%;环境影响主要来源于钢筋和木材的生产,对各类环境影响贡献度分别约为47%、17%;高层居住建筑和非居住建筑中的工厂建筑物化环境影响在各自类型中所占比例最高.按现有趋势发展,2020年上海市居住建筑开发规模和环境影响潜值均将达到2014年的1.52倍,非居住建筑则可达到2014年的1.14倍.针对上海市建筑材料环境影响分析结果,为有效减轻上海市建筑物的环境影响,需重点关注钢筋、铝材、木材以及混凝土的生产,识别生产过程中污染物转移环节进而改进工序;在设计阶段考虑选择环境影响负荷低的绿色建材,如混凝土砌块、高性能混凝土等,从而降低环境影响;同时,应重点关注隐含环境负荷高的高层居住和工厂建筑类建筑,通过降低建材使用量等方案降低环境影响.      

长江口滨岸及近海水体中胶体的分布和理化性质研究

利用切向流超滤技术(CFUF)分离出长江口滨岸及近海水体中的胶体,并对其稳定性和物质组成进行了定量分析.结果表明,XP和WSK胶体的尺寸和Zeta-电位随pH的升高而减小,XP、WSK胶体的等电点分别出现在pH<2、pH=3.8;所采水样的胶体有机碳(COC,M r1×103~1μm)浓度为7.7~35.7μmol·L-1,占总溶解有机碳(DOC)的7.1%~41.7%;三维荧光光谱(3DEEM)分析发现研究区出现类色氨酸荧光峰、类紫外富里酸荧光峰和类腐殖质荧光峰;胶体态Na、Mg、K、Ca、Co、Cr、Cu、Fe、Li、Mn、Ni平均分别占溶解态的0.33%、5.7%、0.975%、1%、7.2%、7%、11.9%、15.7%、5.5%、10.5%、11.3%.Co、Cr、Cu、Fe、Li、Mn、Ni与COC的结合能力大于Na、Mg、K、Ca.相关分析表明,胶体的尺寸、DOC、真溶解有机碳(UOC)与盐度呈负相关,COC与盐度无线性关系,胶体态痕量金属(Co、Cr、Cu、Fe、Li、Mn、Ni)总浓度与COC呈线性关系.     

城市新区污水收集系统的建设和管理

城市新区开发的过程中,污水收集系统往往是容易被忽视的部分,因此会带来新的水体污染问题。本文针对城市新区开发中污水收集系统容易出现的问题,从规划、建设和管理三方面进行了研究和分析,并对城市新区污水收集系统建设和管理提出了建议。     

城市绿色建筑与可持续发展探析

结合我国国情,对绿色建筑的基本概念和要达到的目标进行了分析。综合可持续发展评价体系以及我国目前在绿色建筑方面的发展进程,提出全面推进绿色建筑,完善建筑业可持续发展体系的措施建议。     

Shear cutting and counter shear cutting of sandwich materials

New lightweight sandwich materials challenge existing forming processes as well as following process steps. As such the manufacturing potential of shear cutting has to be evaluated. Two cutting methods are compared. Method commonly used is shear-cutting within one stroke engaged, the other one is known as counter-shear cutting, which uses two strokes.The challenges of cutting sandwich materials are variation of hole diameter within the different layers, fraying of the textiles, deformation of the hole contour and burr formation. These effects occur in conventional shear cutting as the intermediate layer and the lower sheet metal are cut by the scrap of the upper sheet instead of the cutting punch.The following methodology included shear cutting with closed cutting edge i.e. cutting of holes into five different sandwich materials. The sandwiches exemplarily represent multiple kinds of possible material designs. For instance, aluminum and steel face sheets, different thicknesses of intermediate layers and different intermediate layers materials such as integrated textile fibers have been used. Adequate cutting parameters such as die clearance and the use of a blank holder have been determined. To achieve good results a stiff machine design with good guidance and precise control of punch position was crucial.Observations of conventional shear cutting revealed the need of small cutting clearance of 4%. High burnish area is possible for the upper face sheet due to the superimposed force by the lower face sheet. The major conclusion depicted that high cutting quality of sandwich materials requires counter shear cutting. Hence, the roll-over of the lower sheet facing the intermediate layer, the burnish area at the lower sheet, good cutting quality of the fibers improve significantly and burr formation is avoided completely. Summarized this paper provides cutting parameters for sandwich materials based on experimental work.     

电站运营对北溪下游水质影响探讨及改进建议

文章通过对利水电站坝上、坝下布设监测断面,进行为期近一个月的枯水期水质监测,分析上下游水质的变化以期对梯级电站的建设与运营对北溪下游水质的影响进行研究,认为梯级电站的建设运行,形成梯级水库,流速变缓,大气覆氧能力降低,水中溶解氧下降,导致水体自净能力减弱,使水环境容量降低,对污染物的稀释、混合和降解能力减弱,湖库富营养化是水库的主要生态环境问题。为此,提出污染防治对策,并提出当上游污染水团下泄时,作为补救和改善水质时电站应采取的运行方式,为今后河流的突发污染防治、水质保护与改善提供经验借鉴。     

浦东新区“十二五”主要工业污染物排放总量预测及控制对策研究

文章以2010年污染源普查动态更新数据为基础,分析了目前浦东新区主要工业污染物的排放现状,掌握了浦东新区工业源主要能源消耗及污染物排放情况,重点工业源主要污染物行业分布和时空分布。根据浦东新区社会经济发展和环境保护的实际情况,采用情景分析法,设置三种不同工业增加值年增长率情景对浦东新区2015年主要工业污染物的排放量进行了预测,并结合浦东新区“十二五”主要污染物排放总量控制目标作了可达性分析,在此基础上,提出了浦东新区“十二五”主要工业污染物总量控制的对策措施。     

武夷新区土地利用变化及景观格局研究

以2010年的LandsatTM遥感影像图和武夷新区总体规划中新区2030年土地利用规划图为基础数据,在RS和GIS技术支持下,结合马尔科夫模型和景观生态学方法分析了未来武夷新区的土地利用与案观格局变化。结果表明：在规划实施后,建设用地通过占用耕地和林地而大面积增加,使得林地和耕地相应减少,人类活动对景观的干扰强度增大,区域景观斑块形状趋于规则简单化,斑块总数有所减少,平均斑块面积增大,景观连接度增强,破碎化程度降低,景观多样性增加。